2024 United States presidential election
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The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election.[2] His predecessor Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election for a second, non-consecutive term.[3] This will mark the first presidential rematch in American history since 1956. If Trump wins, he would become the second president to serve a non-consecutive term, the first being Grover Cleveland.
The winner of this election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. It will occur at the same time as elections relating to the U.S. Senate, House, gubernatorial, and state legislative. On March 12, Biden and Trump became the presumptive nominees for the Democratic and Republican parties respectively by clinching a majority of delegates, although they have yet to be confirmed at the nominating conventions.[4] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerged as the highest-polling third-party presidential candidate since Ross Perot[5] in the 1992 and 1996 elections, running as an independent.[6][7][8]
Abortion,[9][10] immigration, healthcare,[11] education,[12] the economy,[13] foreign policy,[14] border security,[15] LGBT rights,[16] climate change,[17] and democracy[18][19][20] are expected to be leading campaign issues.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.
The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[21]
Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election. Both Biden and Trump are presumptive nominees for president in 2024, suggesting a rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[22] If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.[23]
The Colorado Supreme Court,[24] a state Circuit Court in Illinois,[25] and the Secretary of State of Maine[26] ruled that Trump is ineligible to hold office under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution for his role in the January 6 Capitol attack, and as such, attempted to disqualify him from appearing on the ballot.[27][26] However, on March 4, the United States Supreme Court unanimously ruled that states cannot determine eligibility for a national election under Section 3.[28]
Election interference
Donald Trump has made false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, and has continued denying the election results as of February 2024[update].[29][30] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[31]
Current and former U.S. officials have stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election is likely. Three major factors cited were "America’s deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI."[32] On April 1, 2024, The New York Times reported that the Chinese government had created fake pro-Trump accounts on social media "promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November."[33] According to disinformation experts and intelligence agencies, Russia spread disinformation ahead of the 2024 election to damage Joe Biden and Democrats, boost candidates supporting isolationism, and undercut support for Ukraine aid and NATO.[34][35]
Electoral map
Effects of the 2020 census
This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[36][37] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[38]
Historical background
In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one of the major parties. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that the various swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the Rust Belt, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.[39] North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%.[40] Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, states like Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.[41][42][43]
The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, performs best among Jewish and Black voters;[44][45] Whites who have attended college[46] or live in urban areas.[47] Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party moved significantly to the left on cultural issues.[48] Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural White voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[49] Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement.[50] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.[51]
Some polling for this election has indicated that Democratic strength among Hispanic, Asian, Arab, and youth voters appears to have somewhat eroded, while Republicans' durability with Whites and voters over the age of 65 also appears to be slipping.[52][53][54][55][56] However, some political analysts[57] have argued that these apparent trends in polling are not representative of the actual electorate, and are a polling mirage resulting from poor sampling months before the election, large numbers of voters who do not think the election will be between Biden and Trump,[58] and heavy non-response bias.[59][60][61][62] Other pollsters, such as YouGov, have shown no statistically significant generational or racial depolarization among the electorate.[63][64]
Campaign issues
Abortion
Abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign. This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[65] The second is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA's approval of mifepristone in 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts.[66] Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers.[65][66]
Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right[67] while Republican politicians generally favor significantly restricting the legality of abortion.[68] By April 2023, a large majority of Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it "largely illegal" throughout much of the United States. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.[65]
Biden has called on Congress to codify abortion protections into federal law, and held many rallies on the issue.[69][70] Trump has claimed credit for overturning Roe but has criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans.[71][72]
Border security and immigration
Polling has shown that border security and immigration are among the top issues concerning potential voters in the 2024 presidential election.[73][74] In 2023 and 2024, a surge of migrants entering the country through the United States' border with Mexico occurred.[75] In response to the influx of migrants, Republican controlled states such as Texas and Florida have been busing migrants to major sanctuary cities controlled by Democrats such as New York and Chicago.[76][77]
Donald Trump has stated that if elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand ICE detentions, deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase Customs and Border Patrol funding as well as finish building the wall on the southern border.[76] The Biden administration has undertaken a policy of punishing migrants who enter the country illegally and providing temporary protections to migrants from certain countries such as Venezuela, Ukraine, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti. This has resulted in a total increase in migrants legally arriving at points of entry, and a decrease in migrants attempting to illegally cross the border.[76] In February 2024, Biden and congressional negotiators reached a bipartisan agreement on a bill to secure the border that included many conservative demands and also unlocked aid to Ukraine and Israel, but the bill was opposed by Trump who claimed it would hurt Republican's ability to run on immigration as a campaign issue.[78][79][80][81][82] Biden has pushed back on Republican claims that he could secure the border without Congress.[83]
Kennedy has stated that he supports securing the border, including efforts like Operation Lone Star by states in the absence of federal action.[84]
Climate change
Climate change is expected to be an issue in the 2024 presidential election.[17]
Biden has stated he believes in human-caused climate change.[85] Biden previously strengthened environmental protections that had been weakened during the Trump administration. Biden passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest investment in addressing climate change and clean energy in US history.[86] Biden has also overseen a record in US crude oil production with over 13.2 million barrels of crude per day beating the 13 million barrels per day produced at the peak of Trump's presidency. Biden has previously stated his intention to lower prices at the gas pump, which experts believe is key to his 2024 reelection campaign.[87] Biden's first term dealt with supply shocks caused by the 2021-2024 global energy crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine.[88]
Trump is running on a climate change denial platform.[89][90][91] Trump has repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "drill, baby, drill,"[92] has promised to increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.[93] Trump has promised to rollback electric vehicle initiatives, proposed leaving the Paris Climate Accords, and rescinding several environmental regulations.[93][94]
Democracy
Joe Biden has been framing the election as a battle for democracy, which was similar to his framing of contemporary geopolitics as "the battle between democracy and autocracy."[95] Biden's rhetoric previously cited democracy and "a battle for the soul of our nation" as the key message of his 2020 presidential campaign, and uses it as a recurring element in his rhetoric since the 2020 presidential election.[19]
Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.[96][97][98] Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[99] Many Republicans are concerned with attempts to prevent former President Trump from holding public office by any means necessary, including impeachment and indictment.[100]
Donald Trump's 2024 campaign has been criticized by the media for making increasingly violent and authoritarian statements,[101][102][103] which some believe the Trump campaign is intentionally leaning into.[104] Trump's previous comments suggesting he can "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss,[105][106] his claim that he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not after,[a] his promise to use the Justice Department to go after his political enemies,[113] attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, continued Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, and Trump's baseless predictions of vote fraud in the 2024 election,[114] have raised concerns over the state of democracy in America.[104][115][116][117]
Democracy is expected to be a large issue in the 2024 election. An AP-NORC poll of 1,074 adults conducted between November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that 62% of adults said democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the next election.[118]
Economic issues
Voters consistently cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election.[119][120][121] The COVID-19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which are likely to persist into 2024.[122] A period of high inflation began in 2021, caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic and a supply-chain crisis, which was then heightened by economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[123][124] Opinion polling over Biden's handling of the economy has consistently been negative since late 2021.[125]
Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities.[126] Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents, but these would expire before the 2024 election.[127]
Both Biden and Trump signed pieces of economic legislation in their first terms which they may tout in the 2024 campaign.[128] Biden signed the American Rescue Plan,[129] Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act,[130] Inflation Reduction Act,[131] CHIPS and Science Act,[132] and the Fiscal Responsibility Act.[133] Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,[134] the CARES Act,[135] and several executive orders providing for de-regulation.[136]
Biden has dubbed his economic policy "Bidenomics" and has promised to create middle-class jobs and reject trickle-down economics.[137] Biden's trade agenda has been noted to reject traditional neoliberal economic policies and the Washington Consensus in favor of de-risking supply chains from China and reverse neoliberal policies that resulted in the offshoring of manufacturing and thus resulted in increased populist backlash.[138] Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. This would be accomplished through a universal baseline tariff[139] of "perhaps 10%" on most foreign goods, with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices. Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.[93] The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump had discussed with advisors imposing a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and was preparing for a massive trade war.[140] Trump's trade policies have been described as neomercantilist or autarkist.[139][141]
Education
Under the Biden administration, several rounds of student loan forgiveness have been issued, totaling over $132 billion. The forgiveness has largely focused on public servants, people who were defrauded, and people in repayment for long periods of time.[142] In August 2022, Biden announced he would sign an executive order that would forgive large amounts of student debt, including $10,000 for student loan debt for single graduates making less than $125,000 or married couples making less than $250,000 and $20,000 for recipients of Pell Grants.[143][144] In June 2023, this plan was overturned in the Supreme Court decision Biden v. Nebraska.[145][146] In the aftermath of the decision, Biden has continued with more limited student loan forgiveness.[142] His plans have been criticized by Republicans as irresponsible spending.[147] Biden stated that offering universal pre-kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term.[148]
Some Republican candidates saw education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment.[149][150][12] Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they whitewash American history and act as memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history.[151] Trump has pledged to terminate the Department of Education,[93] claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists."[152]
Foreign policy
The ongoing Israel–Hamas war and Russian invasion of Ukraine are expected to be significant issues of the election.[153]
The United States has provided significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[154][155][156] Democratic politicians and a significant number of Republican politicians have supported this plan, arguing that the United States has a significant role to play in "protecting democracy and fighting Russian aggression."[157] Biden has made strengthening the NATO alliance and preparing for great power competition a cornerstone of his first term in office,[158] and has promised to defend the NATO alliance during his second term.[159] Donald Trump claims that Ukraine and suppressing Russian intervention should not be a significant interest to the United States, and that the plan should be more limited.[160] Trump previously stated he would potentially recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,[161] and made suggestions that he could have prevented the war by ceding parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia.[162] Trump's 2024 campaign has reiterated its isolationist "America First" foreign policy agenda,[162] and has promised to "fundamentally reevaluate" NATO's purpose and mission.[93] Trump has stated he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to countries that did not contribute enough to NATO.[163]
During the Israel–Hamas war, Biden announced "unequivocal" military support for Israel, and condemned the actions of Hamas and other Palestinian militants as terrorism.[164] Biden has requested 10.6 billion dollars of aid for Israel to Congress.[165] Biden's support for Israel has been criticized by progressives and Muslim leaders, many of whom have indicated they will not vote for Biden over the war.[166] By March 2024, Biden has become increasingly critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and has authorized air drops of aid and announced the construction of a military port to facilitate the delivery of aid to the enclave.[167][168] Kennedy condemned Hamas' attacks on Israeli civilians and declared support for aid to Israel.[169] Trump has given mixed messages on the war, pledging to support Israel and take a tough line on Iran, while also criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and praising Hezbollah as "very smart."[170][171]
Polling has indicated a significant divide between government policy on the Israel–Hamas war and the views of the general public.[172] A March 2024 Gallup poll found that a strong majority of Americans disapprove of Israeli conduct during the war;[173] 36% approved "of the military action Israel has taken in Gaza" while 55% disapproved.[173] A November 2023 poll had 68% of Americans agreeing with a statement that "Israel should call a ceasefire and try to negotiate" and a plurality opposed military aid to Israel, favoring the United States as a neutral meditator.[172] A February 2024 Associated Press poll found that 44% saw Israel as "a partner that the U.S. should cooperate with, but doesn't share its interests and values", while 35% saw Israel "as an ally that shares U.S. interests and values". 50% of Americans believed Israel had "gone too far" in its response, 31% thought Israel had "been about right" and 15% thought Israel had "not gone far enough".[174] Young Americans are significantly less supportive of Israel than older generations.[175][176] On 25 February 2024, Aaron Bushnell, a 25-year-old serviceman of the United States Air Force, fatally self-immolated outside the front gate of the Embassy of Israel in Washington, D.C. in protest of the Biden administration's military support.[177][178]
Healthcare issues
Trump has made repealing the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, a key issue of the 2024 election.[11] The issue of healthcare and drug policy, including whether the United States should shift to a universal healthcare system,[179] and the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election.[180] Kennedy has been a prominent anti-vaccine advocate, but according to Deseret News, he has attempted to moderate his anti-vaccine position before the election, stating that he is not against all vaccines.[181] West is running on a platform of Medicare-for-all.[182] Biden has touted the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which expanded the Affordable Care Act and included provisions to reduce prescription drug prices for people on Medicare.[183]
LGBT rights
In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills surrounding LGBT issues. Particularly, those that restrict gender-affirming healthcare for minors and male-to-female transgender participation in women's sports.[184][185]
In his term as president, Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act, which codified protections for same-sex and inter-racial marriage into law. Additionally, he has endorsed the Equality Act, legislation aiming to extend the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to offer protection on the basis of gender identity and sexual orientation across various domains such as in the workplace, housing, and health care sectors. In 2023, Biden directed the federal government to provide strategies to states on how to enhance access to healthcare and suicide prevention resources for the LGBT community.[186]
In a February 2023 campaign message, Donald Trump said that if reelected, he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders and claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left."[187]
Democratic Party
On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[188][189] Consequently, Republicans have intensified their criticism of Harris since Biden declared his intention to run for office.[190] During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[191] and some prominent Democrats (Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan and former Representative Joe Cunningham) publicly urged Biden not to run.[192][193][194] In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term.[195] According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans—including 51 percent of Democrats—believe Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's current approval rating is 41 percent, while 55 percent disapprove.[196] There was also speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[197][198] After Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[199]
Author Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023, before Biden announced his own candidacy for re-election. Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.[200] In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy for the nomination.[201] Then on October 9, 2023, Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate.[202] Representative Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26.[203]
On March 6, 2024, Philips suspended his campaign after failing to win any primaries the previous night on Super Tuesday. Biden, Palmer, and Williamson remain the only major candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination.[204]
On March 12, 2024, Biden officially became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.[205]
Presumptive nominee
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Personal U.S. Senator from Delaware 47th Vice President of the United States Vice presidential campaigns 46th President of the United States Incumbent Tenure   |
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| Joe Biden | Kamala Harris |
| for President | for Vice President |
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| 46th President of the United States (2021–present) |
49th Vice President of the United States (2021–present) |
Republican Party
Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland in 1892.[206] Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[207][208] Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[209] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[210]
In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[211] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[212][213]
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[214][215][216] On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[217] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[218] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[219]
Following the Iowa caucuses, in which Trump posted a landslide victory, DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving the former president and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served in Trump's cabinet, as the only remaining major candidates.[220][221] Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum.[222] On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign. Trump became the only remaining major candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.[223]
On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.[224]
Presumptive nominee
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Business and personal 45th President of the United States Tenure
Impeachments Civil and criminal prosecutions Interactions involving Russia  |
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| Donald Trump | TBA |
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| 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) |
TBA |
Third party and independent candidates
Third-party and independent candidates have also announced presidential runs. They include socialist activist and intellectual Cornel West, who announced a campaign as an independent after initially announcing a run as a People's Party and later a Green Party candidate.[182] Centrist political organization No Labels intended to field a third-party "unity ticket", before abandoning their efforts in April 2024.[225] Some established third parties, such as the American Solidarity Party, the Prohibition Party, and the Party for Socialism and Liberation have announced presidential nominees, while others, such as the Libertarian Party, the Green Party and the Constitution Party, have begun their primaries. While independent/third-party candidates often do better in opinion polls than actual election performance,[7], third-party candidates, as of October 2023, have the strongest showing in polls since Ross Perot's high poll numbers in the 1990s.[226]
Notable party nominations
The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.
With partial ballot access
These parties have ballot access in some states, but not enough to get 270 votes to win the presidency, without running a write-in campaign.
- American Solidarity Party: Peter Sonski, Connecticut local politician[227]
- Prohibition Party: Michael Wood, businessman[228]
- Party for Socialism and Liberation: Claudia De la Cruz, political activist[229][230]
Without ballot access
- Socialist Party USA: Bill Stodden, nonprofit executive[231][232]
- Socialist Equality Party: Joseph Kishore, writer and SEP nominee in 2020[233]
- Socialist Workers Party: Rachele Fruit, hotel worker and trade unionist[234]
- Transhumanist Party: Tom Ross, technology and political activist[235]
Notable declared candidates
The following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.
Independents
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., after initially running in the Democratic primary, became an independent candidate in October 2023.[236][237] A member of the Kennedy family, he is an environmental lawyer who promotes conspiracy theories.[238][239] He has drawn support among independent and anti-establishment voters disillusioned with mainstream American political parties.[240][241] His polling, as of November 2023, was at the highest levels for a candidate outside the two major parties since 1992.[6][7] A member of the Kennedy family, Kennedy is a son of U.S. attorney general and senator Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of U.S. president John F. Kennedy and senator Ted Kennedy. On March 26, 2024, Kennedy announced Nicole Shanahan, an attorney from California, as his running mate.[242]
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| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Nicole Shanahan |
| for President | for Vice President |
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| Environmental lawyer from California |
Attorney and technologist from California |
Cornel West
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| Cornel West | TBD |
| for President | for Vice President |
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| Academic and activist from California |
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Other independent candidates
- Shiva Ayyadurai, engineer, entrepreneur, and anti-vaccine activist; candidate for U.S. Senate from Massachusetts in 2018 and 2020[243][244][b]
- Johnny Buss, part-owner and vice president of strategic development of the Los Angeles Lakers[245][246]
- Joseph "Afroman" Foreman, rapper[247][248][249][250]
- Taylor Marshall, podcaster and author[251][252][248][253]
Libertarian Party
- Chase Oliver, customer service specialist and nominee for U.S. Senator from Georgia in 2022[254]
- Art Olivier, former mayor of Bellflower, California (1998–1999) and Libertarian nominee for vice president in 2000[255]
- Michael Rectenwald, author and former liberal studies professor at New York University[256]
Green Party
- Jill Stein, physician and 2012 and 2016 Green presidential nominee, member of the Lexington Town Meeting (2005–2010)[257] (campaign)
- Randy Toler, political activist and co-chair of the Green Party of Florida[258]
Withdrawn candidates
The following notable individual(s) announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:
Polling and forecasts
Polling aggregation
Biden and Trump
The following nationwide polls feature Joe Biden, who was the presumptive nominee for the Democratic party before he withdrew from the race and endorsed Kamala Harris.
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
_polling.svg)
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | June 28 – July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 44.8% | 47.9% | 7.3% | Trump +3.1% |
| Race to the WH | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 44.1% | 46.2% | 9.7% | Trump +2.1% |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 43.3% | 46.6% | 10.1% | Trump +3.3% |
| Average | 44.1% | 46.9% | 9.0% | Trump +2.8% | ||
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
_polling.svg)
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Others/ Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 38.6% | 42.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | Trump +4.0% |
| 538 | through July 21, 2024 | July 21, 2024 | 40.2% | 43.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | Trump +3.3% |
| Average | 39.4% | 43.05% | 8.7% | 8.85% | Trump +3.65% | ||
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Others/ Undecided |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 39.2% | 43.4% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 5.2% | Trump +4.2% |
| Race to the WH | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 39.7% | 42.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 5.9% | Trump +2.9% |
| Average | 39.45% | 43.0% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 5.6% | Trump +3.55% | ||
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump (2024)
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| Reuters/Ipsos[260] | July 15–16, 2024 | 992 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 43% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[261] | July 15, 2024 | 2,045 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Forbes/HarrisX[262] | July 13–15, 2024 | 1,918 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 49% | 51% | — |
| Trump suffers an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. | ||||||
| Activote[263] | July 7–15, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49.5% | 50.5% | — |
| Survey USA[264] | July 12–15, 2024 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| The Center Square/Noble Predictive Insights[265] | July 8–11, 2024 | 2,300 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 43% | 46% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[266] | July 7–11, 2024 | 1,847 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| NPR/PBS News/Marist College[267] | July 9–10, 2024 | 1,174 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Fox News[268] | July 7–10, 2024 | 1,210 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| NBC News[269] | July 7–9, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post/Ipsos[270] | July 5–9, 2024 | 2,041 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Emerson College[271] | July 7–8, 2024 | 1,370 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Morning Consult[272] | July 5–7, 2024 | 11,323 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Pew Research Center[273] | July 1–7, 2024 | 7,729 (RV) | — | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Lord Ashcroft[274] | June 28 – July 7, 2024 | 4,347 (LV) | — | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Bendixen & Amandi International (D)[275] | July 2–6, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 43% | 15%[e] |
| Daily Mail/J.L. Partners[276] | July 1–3, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| Cygnal (R)[277] | July 1–2, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[278] | July 1–2, 2024 | 1,070 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Wall Street Journal[279] | June 29 – July 2, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| CBS News/YouGov[280] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 2,815 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| New York Times/Siena College[281] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 1,532 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 43% | 49% | 7% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[282] | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 1,176 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[283] | June 29–30, 2024 | 869 (LV) | — | 44% | 46% | 11% |
| Harvard/Harris[284] | June 28–30, 2024 | 2,090 (RV) | — | 48% | 52% | — |
| Forbes/HarrisX[285] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 52% | — |
| CNN/SSRS[286] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,045 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[287] | June 28, 2024 | 2,068 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Data for Progress (D)[288] | June 28, 2024 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 48% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[289] | June 28, 2024 | 2,315 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 45% | 13% |
| Leger/New York Post[290] | June 27–28, 2024 | 841 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 38% | 45% | 17% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[291] | June 26–28, 2024 | 1,244 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| The presidential debate between Biden and Trump is hosted by CNN in Atlanta. | ||||||
| New York Times/Siena College[292] | June 20–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Leger/New York Post[293] | June 22–24, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.01% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[294] | June 20–24, 2024 | 1,405 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[295] | June 18–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Morning Consult[272] | June 21–23, 2024 | 10,159 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| CBS News/YouGov[296] | June 17–21, 2024 | 1,878 (LV) | — | 49% | 50% | — |
| ActiVote[297] | June 5–21, 2024 | 2,029 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 52% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[298] | June 20, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| Fox News[299] | June 14–17, 2024 | 1,095 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Morning Consult[272] | June 14–16, 2024 | 10,132 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[300] | June 10–12, 2024 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| NPR/PBS[301] | June 10–12, 2024 | 1,184 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 49% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[302] | June 10–11, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[303] | June 8–11, 2024 | 1,140 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Morning Consult[272] | June 7–9, 2024 | 10,260 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| CBS News/YouGov[304] | June 5–7, 2024 | 1,359 (LV) | — | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Cygnal (R)[305] | June 4–6, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 44.5% | 46.5% | 9% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[306] | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,239 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Emerson College[307] | June 4–5, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 50% | — |
| ActiVote[308] | May 23 – June 4, 2024 | 1,671 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 52% | — |
| Navigator Research[309] | May 23 – June 3, 2024 | 812 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[310] | May 31, 2024 | 2,200 (RV) | — | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Survey Monkey/The 19th[311] | May 30–31, 2024 | 5,893 (A) | ± 1.5% | 30% | 34% | 36% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[312] | May 30–31, 2024 | 2,135 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[313] | May 29–31, 2024 | 1,675 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 41% | 41% | 19% |
| Leger/The Canadian Press[314] | May 24–26, 2024 | 883 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| NPR/PBS[315] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,122 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[316][A] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Emerson College[317] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 50% | — |
| ActiVote[318] | May 6–21, 2024 | 1,081 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 51% | — |
| Quinnipiac University[319] | May 16–20, 2024 | 1,374 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Harvard-Harris[320] | May 15–16, 2024 | 1,660 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 53% | — |
| Cygnal (R)[321] | May 14–16, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights[322] | May 13–16, 2024 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 49% | 6% |
| Marquette Law University[323] | May 6–15, 2024 | 911 (RV) | — | 50% | 50% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[302] | May 7–14, 2024 | 3,208 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[324] | May 10–13, 2024 | 1,198 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Fox News[325] | May 10–13, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 2% |
| Ipsos[326] | May 7–13, 2024 | 1,730 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| RMG Research[327] | May 6–9, 2024 | 2,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[272] | May 3–5, 2024 | 9,918 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[328] | May 1–3, 2024 | 1,264 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Data for Progress (D)/Zeteo[329] | May 1–2, 2024 | 1,240 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
| KFF[330] | April 23 – May 1, 2024 | 1,243 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[302] | April 29–30, 2024 | 856 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| ABC News[331] | April 25–30, 2024 | 2,260 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| ActiVote[332] | April 13–30, 2024 | 953 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 53% | — |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[333] | April 26–28, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Leger/The Canadian Press[334] | April 26–28, 2024 | 887 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 42% | 43% | 16% |
| Morning Consult[272] | April 26–28, 2024 | 10,109 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| HarrisX/Harris[335] | April 24–25, 2024 | 1,961 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 52% | — |
| NPR/PBS[336] | April 22–25, 2024 | 1,109 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| CNN/SSRS[337] | April 18–23, 2024 | 967 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[338] | April 18–22, 2024 | 1,429 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[272] | April 19–21, 2024 | 9,791 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| John Zogby Strategies[339][B] | April 14–21, 2024 | 23,683 (LV) | ± 0.6% | 45.7% | 46.1% | 8.2% |
| University of North Florida[340] | April 8–20, 2024 | 745 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 47% | 9% |
| Marist College[341] | April 16–18, 2024 | 1,047 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| Emerson College[342] | April 16–17, 2024 | 1,308 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Morning Consult[272] | April 15–17, 2024 | 7,990 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[343] | April 13–16, 2024 | 1,161 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| NBC News[344] | April 12–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[345] | April 11–15, 2024 | 1,171 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[346] | April 12–14, 2024 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[347] | April 7–11, 2024 | 1,059 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| ActiVote[348] | March 24 – April 10, 2024 | 995 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 53% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[302] | April 3–8, 2024 | 833 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| Morning Consult[272] | April 5–7, 2024 | 6,236 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[349] | April 3–5, 2024 | 1,265 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| RMG Research[350] | April 1–4, 2024 | 1,679 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Emerson College[351] | April 2–3, 2024 | 1,438 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 46% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[352] | March 31 – April 2, 2024 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Morning Consult[272] | March 29–31, 2024 | 6,018 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Data for Progress (D)[353] | March 27–29, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| NPR/PBS[354] | March 25–28, 2024 | 1,199 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Marquette Law School[355] | March 18–28, 2024 | 674 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 48% | — |
| Forbes/HarrisX[356] | March 25, 2024 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 50% | — |
| Fox News[357] | March 22–25, 2024 | 1,094 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[358] | March 21–25, 2024 | 1,407 (RV) | — | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Morning Consult[272] | March 22–24, 2024 | 5,833 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| ActiVote[359] | March 8–22, 2024 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 53% | — |
| HarrisX/Harris[360] | March 20–21, 2024 | 2,111 (RV) | — | 49% | 51% | — |
| The Economist/YouGov[361] | March 16–19, 2024 | 1,509 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[362] | March 15–17, 2024 | 941 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[272] | March 15–17, 2024 | 5,777 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Grinnell College[363] | March 11–17, 2024 | 715 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 45% | 17% |
| Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square[364] | March 11–15, 2024 | 2,510 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[365] | March 9–14, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 34% | 38% | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[366][C] | March 12–13, 2024 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[302] | March 7–13, 2024 | 3,356 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| The Economist/YouGov[367] | March 10–12, 2024 | 1,367 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[368] | March 9–12, 2024 | 1,324 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[369] | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,482 (A) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Forbes/HarrisX[370] | March 8–10, 2024 | 2,017 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 52% | — |
| Morning Consult[272] | March 8–10, 2024 | 6,300 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Emerson College[371] | March 5–6, 2024 | 1,350 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 51% | 49% | — |
| Morning Consult[272] | March 1–3, 2024 | 6,334 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[372] | February 28 – March 1, 2024 | 1,246 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| The Economist/YouGov[373] | February 25–27, 2024 | 1,498 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| The Economist/YouGov[374] | February 18–20, 2024 | 1,360 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University[375] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,421 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Marquette University[376] | February 5–15, 2024 | 787 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 51% | — |
| Emerson College[377] | February 13–14, 2024 | 1,225 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| The Economist/YouGov[378] | February 11–13, 2024 | 1,470 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[379] | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,237 (A) | ± 2.9% | 34% | 37% | 29% |
| YouGov[380] | February 6–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 10% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[381] | February 2–3, 2024 | 917 (LV) | — | 41% | 44% | 15%[f] |
| NPR/PBS[382] | January 31 – February 2, 2024 | 1,441 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| SurveyUSA[383] | January 31 – February 2, 2024 | 1,048 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| The Economist/YouGov[384] | January 28–30, 2024 | 1,486 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[385] | January 27–30, 2024 | 1,217 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Emerson College[386] | January 26–29, 2024 | 1,260 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[387] | January 25–29, 2024 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Harvard-Harris[388] | January 17–18, 2024 | 3,492 (RV) | — | 47% | 53% | — |
| The Messenger/HarrisX[389] | January 16–17, 2024 | 1,045 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 52% | — |
| The Economist/YouGov[390] | January 14–16, 2024 | 1,472 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| CBS News[391] | January 10–12, 2024 | 1,906 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[392] | January 7–9, 2024 | 968 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[393] | January 3–9, 2024 | 4,677 (A) | ± 1.5% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Morning Consult[272] | January 5–8, 2024 | 6,376 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Ipsos/With Honor PAC[394] | January 3–7, 2024 | 2,027 (V) | ± 2.45% | 32% | 34% | 34% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[395] | January 3–5, 2024 | 1,247 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 40% | 41% | 19% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[396] | January 2–4, 2024 | 2,573 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| The Economist/YouGov[397] | December 29, 2023 – January 2, 2024 | 1,343 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump (2023)
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[398] | December 13–19, 2023 | 841 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 54% | — |
| McLaughlin & Associates[399] | December 13–19, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 47%[g] | 10% |
| The Economist/YouGov[400] | December 16–18, 2023 | 1,336 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[401] | December 14–18, 2023 | 1,027 (RV) | — | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[402] | December 14–18, 2023 | 1,647 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
| Echelon Insights[403] | December 12–16, 2023 | 1,012 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[404] | December 10–14, 2023 | 1,016 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| New York Times/Siena College[405] | December 10–14, 2023 | 1,016 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 46% | 9% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News[406] | December 10–13, 2023 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 50% | 4%[h] |
| The Economist/YouGov Poll[407] | December 9–12, 2023 | 1,332 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/CNBC[408] | December 8–12, 2023 | 1,002 (A) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs[409] | December 7–10, 2023 | 1,052 (RV) | ± 1.81% | 45% | 45% | 10%[i] |
| Rasmussen Reports[410] | December 6–10, 2023 | 892 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 48% | 14%[j] |
| Cygnal (R)[411] | December 5–7, 2023 | 2,000 (LV) | ± 2.16% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour[412] | December 4–7, 2023 | 1,129 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Emerson College[413] | December 4–6, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3% | 43.2% | 47.4% | 9.4% |
| SSRS/CNN[414] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 50% | 10%[k] |
| The Economist/YouGov Poll[415] | December 2–5, 2023 | 1,291 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| HarrisX[416] | November 22–28, 2023 | 4,003 (RV) | ± 1.6% | 42% | 46% | 13% |
| YouGov[417] | November 20–27, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
| Leger[418] | November 24–26, 2023 | 869 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[272] | November 24–26, 2023 | 6,527 (RV) | ± 1% | 43% | 42% | 16% |
| Emerson College[419] | November 17–20, 2023 | 1,475 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Harris X/The Messenger[420] | November 15–19, 2023 | 3,017 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[421] | November 14–17, 2023 | 1,006 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 47% | 8% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[393] | November 13–14, 2023 | 1,006 (A) | ± 3.8% | 33% | 35% | 32% |
| YouGov/The Economist[422] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,272 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| NBC News[423] | November 10–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News[424] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| YouGov/Yahoo! News[425] | November 9–13, 2023 | 1,058 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Quinnipiac University[426] | November 9–13, 2023 | 1,574 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[427] | November 10–12, 2023 | 6,130 (RV) | ± 1% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[428] | November 8–12, 2023 | 987 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[429] | November 1–3, 2023 | 1,242 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| CBS News/YouGov[430] | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 2,636 (A) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| SSRS/CNN[431] | October 27 – November 2, 2023 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[432] | October 30 – November 1, 2023 | 2,021 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| YouGov/The Economist[433] | October 28–31, 2023 | 1,500 (A) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[434] | October 27–30, 2023 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 43.5% | 14.5% |
| Quinnipiac[435] | October 26–30, 2023 | 1,610 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Morning Consult[436] | October 20–22, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1% | 43% | 43% | 15% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[437] | October 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Harvard Harris[438] | October 18–19, 2023 | 2,116 (RV) | ± 2% | 41% | 46% | 14% |
| Emerson College[439] | October 16–17, 2023 | 1,578 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Yahoo/YouGov[440] | October 12–16, 2023 | 1,120 (RV) | — | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinions Strategies/CNBC[441] | October 11–15, 2023 | 1,001 (A) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Grinnell College[442] | October 10–15, 2023 | 784 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| NPR/PBS/Marist College[443] | October 11, 2023 | 1,218 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| Fox News[444] | October 6–9, 2023 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 2% |
| SurveyUSA[445] | September 30 – October 3, 2023 | 2,330 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights[446] | September 25–28, 2023 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| YouGov/The Economist[447] | September 23–26, 2023 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Marquette University[448] | September 18–25, 2023 | 781 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 51% | — |
| Morning Consult[449] | September 22–24, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 14% |
| NBC News[450] | September 15–19, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 46% | 6% |
| Harvard/Harris[451][D] | September 13–14, 2023 | 2,103 (RV) | — | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| The Economist/YouGov[452] | September 10–12, 2023 | 1,500 (A) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 43% | 12% |
| Fox News[453] | September 9–12, 2023 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 1% |
| Morning Consult[449] | September 2–4, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| CNN/SSRS[454] | August 25–31, 2023 | 1,259 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[455] | August 17–21, 2023 | 1,113 | ± 2.7% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[449] | August 18–20, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Marist College[456] | August 11–14, 2023 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square[457] | July 31 – August 3, 2023 | 2,500 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Big Village[458] | July 24–26, 2023 | 1,663 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[459] | July 13–17, 2023 | 1,809 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[460] | July 13–17, 2023 | 1,098 | ± 2.7% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Marquette University[461] | July 7–12, 2023 | 788 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 50% | — |
| Morning Consult[462] | July 7–9, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[463] | July 5–6, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[462] | June 23–25, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[464] | June 19–23, 2023 | 2,875 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Emerson College[465] | June 19–20, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| NBC News[466] | June 16–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University[467] | June 8–12, 2023 | 1,735 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[468] | June 9–11, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| YouGov[469] | May 25–30, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[470] | May 22–25, 2023 | 1,035 (LV) | — | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Quinnipiac University[471] | May 18–22, 2023 | 1,616 (RV) | — | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Harvard/Harris[472] | May 17–18, 2023 | 2,004 (RV) | – | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Marquette University[473] | May 8–18, 2023 | 791 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 52% | — |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[474] | May 17, 2023 | 1,117 (LV) | — | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| YouGov/The Economist[475] | May 13–16, 2023 | 1,302 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Premise[476] | May 12–15, 2023 | 1,591 (RV) | — | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Morning Consult[477] | May 12–14, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence[478] | May 10–13, 2023 | 1,571 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[479] | May 5–8, 2023 | 1,060 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[477] | May 5–7, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | — | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post[480] | April 28 – May 5, 2023 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 45% | 16% |
| YouGov/The Economist[481] | April 29 – May 2, 2023 | 1,357 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Emerson College[482] | April 24–25, 2023 | 1,100 (RV) | — | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Morning Consult[477] | April 21–23, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | — | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Cygnal (R)[483] | April 18–20, 2023 | 2,500 (LV) | ± 1.94% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Harvard/Harris[484] | April 18–19, 2023 | 1,845 (RV) | — | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| YouGov/The Economist[485] | April 15–18, 2023 | 1,316 (RV) | — | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Premise[486] | April 14–17, 2023 | 1,485 (RV) | — | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[487] | April 14–17, 2023 | 1,027 (RV) | — | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[477] | April 14–16, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| YouGov/The Economist[488] | April 8–11, 2023 | 1,322 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Morning Consult[477] | April 7–9, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[489] | April 4, 2023 | 1,180 (LV) | — | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| YouGov[490] | April 1–4, 2023 | 1,319 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Premise[491] | March 31 – April 3, 2023 | 1,562 (RV) | — | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports[492] | March 30 – April 3, 2023 | 971 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Morning Consult[477] | March 31 – April 2, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[493][E] | March 31 – April 1, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[494] | March 30–31, 2023 | 729 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[495] | March 27–29, 2023 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[496] | March 26–27, 2023 | 2,550 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[497] | March 23–27, 2023 | 1,600 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[477] | March 24–26, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Harvard/Harris[498] | March 22–23, 2023 | 2,905 (RV) | — | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Marquette University[499] | March 12–22, 2023 | 863 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
| Premise[500] | March 16–21, 2023 | 1,509 (RV) | — | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[501] | March 20, 2023 | 1,250 (LV) | — | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[502] | March 16–20, 2023 | 1,059 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[503] | March 16–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Morning Consult[477] | March 17–19, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University[504] | March 9–13, 2023 | 1,635 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[477] | March 10–12, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Wick Insights[505] | March 6–9, 2023 | 1,125 (LV) | — | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[506] | March 7–8, 2023 | 1,201 (LV) | — | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Premise[507] | March 4–7, 2023 | 1,621 (RV) | — | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Morning Consult[477] | March 3–5, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Cygnal (R)[508] | February 24–27, 2023 | 2,424 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[509] | February 23–27, 2023 | 1,014 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Susquehanna[510] | February 19–26, 2023 | 800 (RV) | — | 52% | 39% | — |
| Emerson College[511] | February 24–25, 2023 | 1,060 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[477] | February 23–25, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | — | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights[512] | February 21–23, 2023 | 1,023 (LV) | — | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[513] | February 17–23, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[514] | February 19, 2023 | 1,102 (LV) | — | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Morning Consult[477] | February 17–19, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Premise[515] | February 16–19, 2023 | 1,717 (RV) | — | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[516] | February 16–19, 2023 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 1.5% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Harvard/Harris[517] | February 15–16, 2023 | 1,838 (RV) | — | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Quinnipac University[518] | February 9–14, 2023 | 1,429 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[519] | February 6–13, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Morning Consult[477] | February 10–12, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | — | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports[520] | February 8–12, 2023 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[521] | February 10–11, 2023 | 1,056 (RV) | — | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[522] | February 2–6, 2023 | 1,063 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[477] | February 3–5, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post[523] | January 27 – February 1, 2023 | 895 (RV) | — | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[524] | January 28–29, 2023 | 1,139 (LV) | — | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Morning Consult[477] | January 27–29, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Echelon Insights[525] | January 23–25, 2023 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[526] | January 19–24, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Morning Consult[477] | January 20–22, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Emerson College[527] | January 19–21, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Cygnal (R)[528] | January 19–20, 2023 | 2,529 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Marquette University[529] | January 9–20, 2023 | 790 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris[530] | January 18–19, 2023 | 2,050 (RV) | — | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| YouGov/The Economist[531] | January 14–17, 2023 | 1,314 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[532] | January 16, 2023 | 1,458 (LV) | — | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| YouGov/YahooNews[533] | January 12–16, 2023 | 1,028 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[477] | January 10–12, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Morning Consult[477] | January 6–8, 2023 | 7,500 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence[534] | January 2–8, 2023 | 1,035 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump (2022)
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult[477] | December 31, 2022 – January 2, 2023 | 8,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
| Data for Progress[535] | December 22–29, 2022 | 1,189 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[536] | December 15–19, 2022 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[477] | December 16–18, 2022 | 7,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris[537] | December 14–15, 2022 | 1,851 (RV) | — | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Echelon Insights[538] | December 12–14, 2022 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[539] | December 9–14, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Morning Consult[477] | December 9–11, 2022 | 7,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Suffolk University[540] | December 7–11, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research[541] | December 3–7, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[542] | December 5, 2022 | 1,162 (LV) | — | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[543] | December 1–5, 2022 | 1,204 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Marquette University[544] | November 15–22, 2022 | 840 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 34% | 22% |
| Emerson College[527] | November 18–19, 2022 | 1,380 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights[545] | November 17–19, 2022 | 1,036 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[546] | November 17, 2022 | 1,203 (LV) | — | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Harvard/Harris[547] | November 16–17, 2022 | 2,212 (RV) | — | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Léger[548] | November 11–13, 2022 | 1,007 (A) | — | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Rasmussen Reports[549] | November 8–9, 2022 | 1,767 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Democracy Corps/GQR[550] | November 6–8, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | — | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[551] | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[552] | November 2, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | — | 39% | 44% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[553] | October 27–31, 2022 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Benenson Strategy Group[554] | October 27–30, 2022 | 1,000 (V) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[555] | October 24–26, 2022 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research[556] | October 22–26, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | — | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Suffolk University[557] | October 19–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Emerson College[558] | October 18–19, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[559] | October 13–17, 2022 | 1,209 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[560] | October 12–17, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 50% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[561] | October 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris[562] | October 12–13, 2022 | 2,010 (RV) | — | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[563] | October 12, 2022 | 1,110 (LV) | — | 40% | 41% | 19% |
| Siena College/The New York Times[564] | October 9–12, 2022 | 792 (LV) | — | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| John Zogby Strategies[565] | October 5, 2022 | 1,006 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[566] | October 2–3, 2022 | 1,128 (LV) | — | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[567] | September 23–27, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[568] | September 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College[569] | September 20–21, 2022 | 1,368 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post[570] | September 18–21, 2022 | 908 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Premise[571] | September 16–19, 2022 | 1,703 (A) | — | 51% | 49% | — |
| Echelon Insights[572] | September 16–19, 2022 | 1,056 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Refield & Wilton Strategies[573] | September 14–15, 2022 | 1,163 (LV) | — | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Marquette University[574] | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,282 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| Siena College/The New York Times[575] | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,399 (RV) | — | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Harvard/Harris[576] | September 7–8, 2022 | 1,854 (RV) | — | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[577] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 1,228 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[578] | September 2–6, 2022 | 1,247 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Premise[579] | September 2–5, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | — | 51% | 49% | — |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[580] | August 28, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | — | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research[581] | August 17–25, 2022 | 1,313 (RV) | — | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Emerson College[582] | August 23–24, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[583] | August 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Echelon Insights[584] | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[585] | August 18–22, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | — | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[586] | August 17, 2022 | 1,156 (LV) | — | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[587] | July 28 – August 1, 2022 | 1,152 (RV) | — | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[588] | July 29, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | — | 35% | 42% | 23% |
| Harvard/Harris[589] | July 27–28, 2022 | 1,885 (RV) | — | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports[590] | July 26–27, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Suffolk University[591] | July 22–25, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Emerson College[592] | July 19–20, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[593] | July 15–18, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | — | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[594] | July 11–14, 2022 | 1,085 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 48% | 10% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[595] | July 8–11, 2022 | 1,261 (RV) | — | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[596] | July 9, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | — | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| The New York Times/Siena College[597] | July 5–7, 2022 | 849 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 41% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris[598] | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,308 (RV) | — | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Emerson College[599] | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 39% | 44% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[600] | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | — | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[601] | June 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Echelon Insights[602] | June 17–20, 2022 | 1,030 (LV) | — | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[603] | June 15, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | — | 38% | 41% | 21% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[604] | June 10–13, 2022 | 1,243 (RV) | — | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[605] | May 30, 2022 | 1,173 (LV) | — | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Emerson College[606] | May 24–25, 2022 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights[607] | May 20–23, 2022 | 1,020 (LV) | — | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[608] | May 19–22, 2022 | 1,360 (RV) | — | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris[609] | May 18–19, 2022 | 1,963 (RV) | — | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[610] | May 17, 2022 | 1,120 (LV) | — | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports[611] | April 28 – May 2, 2022 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 50% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[612] | May 1, 2022 | 1,096 (LV) | — | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Emerson College[613] | April 25–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[614] | April 22–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Morning Consult[615] | April 22–25, 2022 | 2,004 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[616] | April 21–23, 2022 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[617] | April 19–22, 2022 | 1,187 (RV) | — | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris[618] | April 20–21, 2022 | 1,966 (RV) | — | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[619] | April 18–20, 2022 | 1,001 (LV) | — | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[620] | April 18, 2022 | 1,500 (LV) | — | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[621] | March 31 – April 4, 2022 | 1,233 (RV) | — | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[622] | April 3, 2022 | 1,205 (LV) | — | 38% | 43% | 19% |
| Marquette Law School[623] | March 14–24, 2022 | 1,004 (A) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris[624] | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,990 (RV) | — | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[625] | March 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Echelon Insights[626] | March 18–21, 2022 | 1,050 (RV) | — | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell[627] | March 15–21, 2022 | 873 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[628] | March 20, 2022 | 1,193 (LV) | — | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Emerson College[629] | March 18–20, 2022 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[630] | March 10–14, 2022 | 1,225 (RV) | — | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[631] | March 8, 2022 | 1,194 (LV) | — | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Wall Street Journal[632] | March 2–7, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | — | 45% | 45% | 9% |
| Schoen Cooperman Research[633] | March 2–6, 2022 | 800 (LV) | — | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[634] | February 24–27, 2022 | 1,532 (A) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| NewsNation[635] | February 23–24, 2022 | 1,046 (RV) | — | 37% | 41% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris[636] | February 23–24, 2022 | 2,026 (RV) | — | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[637] | February 19–23, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | — | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[638] | February 23, 2022 | 1,367 (LV) | — | 42% | 38% | 20% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[639] | February 16–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Emerson College[640] | February 19–20, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[641] | February 6, 2022 | 1,406 (LV) | — | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[642] | January 20–24, 2022 | 1,568 (A) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Morning Consult[643] | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[644] | January 21–23, 2022 | 1,098 (RV) | — | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Marquette Law School[645][l] | January 10–21, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | — | 43% | 33% | 24% |
| Harvard/Harris[646] | January 19–20, 2022 | 1,815 (RV) | — | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[647] | January 13–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[648] | January 8–9, 2022 | 1,430 (LV) | — | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| PMC[disambiguation needed]/John Bolton Super Pac[649] | January 6, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[650] | January 5, 2022 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump (2021)
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[651] | December 17–19, 2021 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[652] | December 18, 2021 | 1,411 (LV) | — | 34% | 39% | 27% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[653] | December 9–13, 2021 | 1,558 (A) | — | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[654] | December 9–13, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | — | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[655] | December 5, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | — | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris[656] | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | — | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[657] | November 22–23, 2021 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 45% | 23% |
| Wall Street Journal[658] | November 16–22, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | — | 46% | 45% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[659] | November 12–18, 2021 | 1,013 (RV) | — | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[660] | November 11–16, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[661] | November 15, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | — | 35% | 41% | 24% |
| Marquette Law School[662][m] | November 1–10, 2021 | 1,004 (A) | — | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[663] | November 4–8, 2021 | 1,673 (A) | — | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| Suffolk University[664] | November 3–5, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Emerson College[665] | November 3–4, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[666] | October 31, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | — | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris[667] | October 26–28, 2021 | 1,578 (LV) | — | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[668] | October 19–21, 2021 | 1,704 (A) | — | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Echelon Insights[669] | October 15–19, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | — | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[670] | October 17, 2021 | 1,366 (LV) | — | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Selzer and Company/Grinnell College[671] | October 13–17, 2021 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 40% | 19% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[672] | October 4–6, 2021 | 1,345 (LV) | — | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights[673] | September 17–23, 2021 | 1,005 (RV) | — | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[674] | September 21–22, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[675] | September 19–20, 2021 | 1,330 (LV) | — | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[676] | September 9–14, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[677] | September 4–5, 2021 | 1,357 (LV) | — | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Emerson College[678] | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[679] | August 16–17, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 43% | 20% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[680] | July 30 – August 2, 2021 | 1,552 (A) | — | 47% | 37% | 16% |
| PMC[disambiguation needed]/John Bolton Super Pac[681] | July 8, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[682] | June 22–24, 2021 | 1,592 (A) | — | 47% | 35% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[683] | May 24–26, 2021 | 1,588 (A) | — | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[684] | May 11–13, 2021 | 1,561 (A) | — | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[685] | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,106 (A) | — | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| PMC[disambiguation needed]/John Bolton Super Pac[686] | April 3–7, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Chase Oliver vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||||||
| NPR/PBS News/Marist College[267] | July 9–10, 2024 | 1,174 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 3% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| NBC News[269] | July 7–9, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 40% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
| Daily Mail/J.L. Partners[276] | July 1–3, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 43% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| Wall Street Journal[687] | June 29 – July 2, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 36% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| New York Times/Siena College[281] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 1,532 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 37% | 42% | 8% | <0.5% | 1% | 2% | 9% |
| CNN/SSRS[286] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,045 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 35% | 41% | 14% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[688] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| New York Times/Siena College[292] | June 20–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 40% | 7% | <0.5% | 1% | 2% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[689] | June 20–24, 2024 | 1,405 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 43% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[295] | June 18–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 37% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 9% |
| Marist College[690] | June 10–12, 2024 | 1,184 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Data for Progress (D)/Zeteo[329] | May 1–2, 2024 | 1,240 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 41% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Data for Progress (D)[353] | March 27–29, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||||
| The Center Square/Noble Predictive Insights[265] | July 8–11, 2024 | 2,300 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[266] | July 7–11, 2024 | 1,847 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 46% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| NPR/PBS News/Marist College[267] | July 9–10, 2024 | 1,174 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Fox News[268] | July 7–10, 2024 | 1,210 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| The Economist/YouGov[691] | July 7–9, 2024 | 1,443 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 43% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post/Ipsos[270] | July 5–9, 2024 | 2,041 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 42% | 43% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Emerson College[271] | July 7–8, 2024 | 1,370 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Lord Ashcroft[274] | June 28 – July 7, 2024 | 4,347 (LV) | — | 41% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[277] | July 1–2, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 38% | 44% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| The Economist/YouGov[692] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,392 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| CBS News/YouGov[280] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 2,808 (LV) | — | 40% | 44% | 11% | 2% | 3% | — |
| Harvard/Harris[284] | June 28–30, 2024 | 2,090 (RV) | — | 38% | 46% | 13% | 2% | 2% | — |
| Forbes/HarrisX[285] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 37% | 42% | 16% | 2% | 3% | — |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[291] | June 26–28, 2024 | 1,244 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 40% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
| AtlasIntel/CNN Brazil[693] | June 26–28, 2024 | 1,634 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 46% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| The Economist/YouGov[694] | June 23–25, 2024 | 1,406 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 10% |
| Leger/New York Post[293] | June 22–24, 2024 | 878 (LV) | ± 3.01% | 38% | 38% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 13% |
| The Economist/YouGov[695] | June 16–18, 2024 | 1,396 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Fox News[299] | June 14–17, 2024 | 1,095 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| New York Post/YouGov[696] | June 11–14, 2024 | 1,011 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 39% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights[697] | June 10–12, 2024 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 43% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| The Economist/YouGov[698] | June 9–11, 2024 | 1,399 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[305] | June 4–6, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College[307] | June 4–5, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38.4% | 44.4% | 5.9% | 1% | 1.2% | 9.1% |
| The Economist/YouGov[699] | June 2–4, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[313] | May 29–31, 2024 | 1,675 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 38% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 9% |
| Leger/The Canadian Press[314] | May 24–26, 2024 | 883 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 37% | 39% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
| The Economist/YouGov[700] | May 25–28, 2024 | 1,547 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[316][A] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 38% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 7%[n] |
| Emerson College[317] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 38.7% | 43.8% | 5.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 9.6% |
| The Economist/YouGov[701] | May 19–21, 2024 | 1,560 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[319] | May 16–20, 2024 | 1,374 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Cygnal (R)[321] | May 14–16, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 38% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[322] | May 13–16, 2024 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 43% | 9% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
| The Economist/YouGov[702] | May 12–14, 2024 | 1,586 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 41% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Fox News[703] | May 10–13, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[328] | May 1–3, 2024 | 1,264 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 39% | 38% | 12% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| USA Today[704] | April 30 – May 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 37% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 15% |
| The Economist/YouGov[705] | April 28–30, 2024 | 1,479 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 44% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Leger/The Canadian Press[334] | April 26–28, 2024 | 887 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 38% | 41% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| ABC News/Ipsos[706] | April 25–30, 2024 | 2,260 (A) | ± 2.0% | 42% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| HarrisX/Harris[335] | April 24–25, 2024 | 1,961 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 39% | 45% | 12% | 2% | 1% | — |
| The Economist/YouGov[707] | April 21–23, 2024 | 1,470 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| CNN/SSRS[337] | April 18–23, 2024 | 967 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 42% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[708] | April 18–22, 2024 | 1,429 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 37% | 16% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Marist College[341] | April 17–18, 2024 | 1,047 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 38% | 13% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/NBC News[709] | April 12–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| Emerson College[342] | April 16–17, 2024 | 1,308 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 7% |
| The Economist/YouGov[710] | April 14–16, 2024 | 1,358 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 44% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[346] | April 12–14, 2024 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 40% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| NY Times/Siena[711] | April 7–11, 2024 | 1,059 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 43% | 2% | <0.5% | <0.5% | 12% |
| The Economist/YouGov[712] | April 6–9, 2024 | 1,583 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 12% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[713] | April 3–5, 2024 | 1,265 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 38% | 38% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
| Emerson College[351] | April 2–3, 2024 | 1,438 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| The Economist/YouGov[714] | March 30 – April 2, 2024 | 1,604 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 9% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[715] | March 29–31, 2024 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 43% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| NPR/PBS[354] | March 25–28, 2024 | 1,199 (LV) | — | 43% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Quinnipiac University[716] | March 21–25, 2024 | 1,407 (RV) | — | 38% | 39% | 13% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| The Economist/YouGov[361] | March 16–19, 2024 | 1,510 (RV) | — | 44% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 10% |
| Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square[364] | March 11–15, 2024 | 2,510 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College[371] | March 5–6, 2024 | 1,350 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 43% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[375] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,421 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 38% | 37% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Emerson College[386] | January 26–29, 2024 | 1,260 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 39% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Quinnipiac University[375] | January 25–29, 2024 | 1,650 (RV) | — | 39% | 37% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[402] | December 14–18, 2023 | 1,647 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 36% | 38% | 16% | 3% | 3% | 5%[o] |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News[424] | December 10–13, 2023 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 41% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 4%[p] |
| Emerson College[413] | December 4–6, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3% | 37% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Emerson College[419] | November 17–20, 2023 | 1,475 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 36% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News[424] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 41% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[426] | November 9–13, 2023 | 1,574 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 35% | 38% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[717] | July 15, 2024 | 2,621 (RV) | — | 42% | 43% | 6% | 9% |
| Pew Research Center[273] | July 1–7, 2024 | 7,729 (RV) | — | 40% | 44% | 15% | 2% |
| Daily Mail/J.L. Partners[276] | July 1–3, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 43% | 7% | 13% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[283] | June 29–30, 2024 | 869 (LV) | — | 39% | 42% | 10% | 9% |
| Harvard/Harris[284] | June 28–30, 2024 | 2,090 (RV) | — | 39% | 46% | 15% | — |
| Forbes/HarrisX[285] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 38% | 43% | 19% | — |
| Patriot Polling[718] | June 27–29, 2024 | 1,029 (RV) | — | 41% | 44% | 11% | 4% |
| ActiVote[297] | June 5–21, 2024 | 2,192 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 42% | 44% | 14% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[719] | June 12, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 38% | 10% | 16% |
| ActiVote[720] | May 23 – June 4, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 42% | 45% | 13% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[721] | May 30–31, 2024 | 2,135 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 39% | 37% | 10% | 13% |
| ActiVote[318] | May 6–21, 2024 | 1,153 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 45% | 13% | — |
| Harvard-Harris[320] | May 15–16, 2024 | 1,660 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 45% | 14% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[302] | May 7–14, 2024 | 3,208 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 40% | 13% | 7% |
| Ipsos[326] | May 7–13, 2024 | 1,730 (RV) | — | 37% | 35% | 5% | 23% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[722] | April 29–30, 2024 | 856 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 38% | 8% | 15% |
| ActiVote[332] | April 13–30, 2024 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 41.2% | 44.4% | 14.4% | — |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[333] | April 26–28, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43.7% | 39.5% | 11% | 5.9% |
| HarrisX/Harris[335] | April 24–25, 2024 | 1,961 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% | — |
| Change Research (D)[723] | April 17–22, 2024 | 2,745 (RV) | — | 38% | 39% | 8% | 14% |
| ActiVote[348] | March 24 – April 10, 2024 | 995 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 44% | 15% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[724] | March 7–13, 2024 | 3,356 (RV) | — | 43% | 38% | 12% | 7% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[725] | January 3–9, 2024 | 4,677 (RV) | ± 1.5% | 29% | 30% | 18% | 23% |
| Quinnipiac University[402] | December 14–18, 2023 | 1,647 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 38% | 36% | 22% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[410] | December 6–7 & 10, 2023 | 892 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 40% | 16% | 12%[q] |
| Cygnal (R)[411] | December 5–7, 2023 | 2,000 (LV) | ± 2.16% | 42% | 43% | 9% | 6% |
| Harvard/Harris[726] | November 15–16, 2023 | 2,851 (RV) | — | 36% | 44% | 21% | 0% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[393] | November 13–14, 2023 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 30% | 32% | 20% | 18% |
| Quinnipiac University[727] | November 9–13, 2023 | 1,574 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 37% | 38% | 21% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[728] | November 8–12, 2023 | 987 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 39% | 12% | 11% |
| Sienna College[729] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 3,662 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 33% | 35% | 24% | 8% |
| Cygnal (R)[730] | October 30 – November 1, 2023 | 2,000 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 40% | 39% | 12% | 8% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[434] | October 27–30, 2023 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 39% | 11% | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University[731] | October 26–30, 2023 | 1,610 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 39% | 36% | 22% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton[732] | October 29, 2023 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 38% | 40% | 10% | 12% |
| Susquehanna[733] | October 17–27, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 40% | 6% | 7% |
| McLaughlin and Associates[734] | October 23–26, 2023 | 449 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 39% | 14% | 11% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[735] | October 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 37% | 14% | 11% |
| Harvard Harris[438] | October 18–19, 2023 | 2,103 (RV) | ± 2% | 36% | 42% | 22% | — |
| Yahoo News/YouGov[736] | October 10–16, 2023 | 1,123 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 40% | 39% | 9% | 12% |
| NPR/PBS/Marist[737] | October 11, 2023 | 1,218 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 37% | 16% | 3% |
| Kennedy announces he will run as an independent candidate | |||||||
| Fox News[444] | October 6–9, 2023 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 41% | 16% | 2% |
| Cygnal (R)[738] | October 3–5, 2023 | 2,000 (A) | ± 2.16% | 39% | 40% | 12% | 9% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[739] | October 3–4, 2023 | 1,005 (A) | ± 4.0% | 31% | 33% | 14% | 22% |
| Echelon Insights[446] | September 25–28, 2023 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 40% | 14% | 10% |
| American Values[740] | September 24, 2023 | 1,008 | ± 3.2% | 38% | 38% | 19% | 5% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||
| The Wall Street Journal[741] | August 24–30, 2023 | 1,500 (RV) | — | 39% | 40% | 2% | 19% |
| Emerson College[742] | August 25–26, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 44% | 4% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[743] | August 15–23, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 41% | 42% | 6% | 11% |
| Emerson College[744] | August 16–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 5% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[745] | July 19–24, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 40% | 42% | 5% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[746] | June 26–29, 2023 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 43% | 4% | 11% |
| Emerson College[465] | June 19–20, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 41% | 6% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||||
| Big Village[747] | June 7–9, 2024 | 1,423 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 7% |
| Big Village[748] | May 3–8, 2024 | 3,032 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 41.9% | 40.6% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 7.5% |
| Big Village[749] | March 29–31, 2024 | 1,425 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 40% | 8% | 2% | 8% |
| SSRS/CNN[414] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 39% | 20% | 6% | 4%[r] |
| HarrisX[416] | November 22–28, 2023 | 4,003 (RV) | — | 33% | 41% | 13% | 2% | 11% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[750] | November 15–19, 2023 | 3,017 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 33% | 40% | 14% | 2% | 11% |
| Big Village[751] | October 30 – November 5, 2023 | 1,497 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 37.1% | 40.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | 8.7% |
| CNN/SSRS[752] | October 27 – November 2, 2023 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 35% | 41% | 16% | 4% | 3% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[432] | October 30 – November 1, 2023 | 2,021 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 36% | 41% | 11% | 2% | 10% |
| Quinnipiac University[731] | October 26–30, 2023 | 1,610 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 36% | 35% | 19% | 6% | 4% |
| McLaughlin and Associates (R)[753] | October 23–26, 2023 | 449 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 35% | 38% | 12% | 2% | 13% |
| Harris X/The Messenger[754] | October 16–23, 2023 | 3,029 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 35% | 38% | 13% | 2% | 12% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[437] | October 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 37% | 13% | 4% | 9% |
| Harvard/Harris X[755] | October 18–19, 2023 | 2,116 (RV) | ± 2% | 31% | 39% | 18% | 3% | 9% |
| Zogby Analytics[756] | October 13–15, 2023 | 869 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 41.2% | 42.6% | 12.5% | 3.7% | — |
| Kennedy announces he will run as an independent candidate | ||||||||
| West announces he will run as an independent candidate | ||||||||
Biden, Trump, and Kennedy
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Others/ Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 38.6% | 42.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | Trump +4.0% |
| 538 | through July 21, 2024 | July 21, 2024 | 40.2% | 43.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | Trump +3.3% |
| Average | 39.4% | 43.05% | 8.7% | 8.85% | Trump +3.65% | ||
Biden, Trump, Kennedy, and West
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||||
| Big Village[757] | June 7–9, 2024 | 1,423 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 7% |
| Big Village[758] | May 3–8, 2024 | 3,032 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 41.9% | 40.6% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 7.5% |
| Big Village[759] | March 29–31, 2024 | 1,425 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 40% | 8% | 2% | 8% |
| SSRS/CNN[414] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 39% | 20% | 6% | 4%[s] |
| HarrisX[416] | November 22–28, 2023 | 4,003 (RV) | — | 33% | 41% | 13% | 2% | 11% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[760] | November 15–19, 2023 | 3,017 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 33% | 40% | 14% | 2% | 11% |
| Big Village[761] | October 30 – November 5, 2023 | 1,497 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 37.1% | 40.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | 8.7% |
| CNN/SSRS[762] | October 27 – November 2, 2023 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 35% | 41% | 16% | 4% | 3% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[432] | October 30 – November 1, 2023 | 2,021 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 36% | 41% | 11% | 2% | 10% |
| Quinnipiac University[731] | October 26–30, 2023 | 1,610 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 36% | 35% | 19% | 6% | 4% |
| McLaughlin and Associates (R)[763] | October 23–26, 2023 | 449 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 35% | 38% | 12% | 2% | 13% |
| Harris X/The Messenger[764] | October 16–23, 2023 | 3,029 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 35% | 38% | 13% | 2% | 12% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[437] | October 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 37% | 13% | 4% | 9% |
| Harvard/Harris X[765] | October 18–19, 2023 | 2,116 (RV) | ± 2% | 31% | 39% | 18% | 3% | 9% |
| Zogby Analytics[766] | October 13–15, 2023 | 869 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 41.2% | 42.6% | 12.5% | 3.7% | — |
| Kennedy announces he will run as an independent candidate | ||||||||
| West announces he will run as an independent candidate | ||||||||
Biden, Trump, Kennedy, West, and Stein
Forecasts
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by all forecasters (The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, CNalysis, and CNN) are omitted for brevity.
| State | EVs | PVI[767] | 2020 result |
2020 margin[768] |
IE April 26, 2023[769] |
Cook December 19, 2023[770] |
CNalysis March 6, 2024[771] |
Sabato January 3, 2024[772] |
CNN January 31, 2024[773] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 3 | R+8 | 52.8% R | 10.06% | Solid R | Solid R | Very Likely R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Arizona | 11 | R+2 | 49.4% D | 0.31% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Colorado | 10 | D+4 | 55.4% D | 13.50% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Lean D |
| Florida | 30 | R+3 | 51.2% R | 3.36% | Lean R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Likely R | Lean R |
| Georgia | 16 | R+3 | 49.5% D | 0.24% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R |
| Iowa | 6 | R+6 | 53.1% R | 8.20% | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Maine[t] | 2 | D+2 | 53.1% D | 9.07% | Likely D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Solid D |
| ME–02[t] | 1 | R+6 | 52.3% R | 7.44% | Lean R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Lean R | Lean R |
| Michigan | 15 | R+1 | 50.6% D | 2.78% | Tilt D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean R |
| Minnesota | 10 | D+1 | 52.4% D | 7.11% | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D |
| NE–02[t] | 1 | EVEN | 52.0% D[u] | 6.50% | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup |
| Nevada | 6 | R+1 | 50.1% D | 2.39% | Tilt D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R |
| New Hampshire | 4 | D+1 | 52.7% D | 7.35% | Lean D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Lean D | Lean D |
| New Mexico | 5 | D+3 | 54.3% D | 10.79% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D |
| North Carolina | 16 | R+3 | 49.9% R | 1.35% | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R |
| Ohio | 17 | R+6 | 53.3% R | 8.03% | Likely R | Solid R | Very Likely R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Oregon | 8 | D+6 | 56.4% D | 16.08% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Lean D |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | R+2 | 50.0% D | 1.16% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup |
| Texas | 40 | R+5 | 52.1% R | 5.58% | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Virginia | 13 | D+3 | 54.1% D | 10.11% | Likely D | Solid D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Lean D |
| Wisconsin | 10 | R+2 | 49.5% D | 0.63% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Overall | D – 247 R – 235 56 tossups |
D – 226 R – 235 77 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 260 R – 235 43 tossups |
D – 225 R – 272 41 tossups | ||||
Debates
The Commission on Presidential Debates announced the schedule on November 20, 2023. It will host four debates in 2024.
- September 16 at Texas State University in San Marcos, Texas (presidential debate).
- September 25 at Lafayette College in Easton, Pennsylvania (vice presidential debate).
- October 1 at Virginia State University in Petersburg, Virginia (presidential debate).
- October 9 at University of Utah in Salt Lake City, Utah (presidential debate).
To qualify for the debates, candidates must appear on enough ballots to be able to win a majority of the electoral votes, must be constitutionally eligible, and poll an average of at least 15% in national polls from organizations selected by the commission.[774]
See also
- 2024 United States elections
- Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
- Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
- Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election
Notes
- ^ Attributed to multiple references:[107][108][109][110][111][112]
- ^ Ayyadurai is not eligible to serve as president as he is not a natural-born citizen, but he claims he can run for office.
- ^ a b c Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Third party" with 5%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 11%; Undecided with 4%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" & "Don't know" with 1%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 6%; "Not sure" with 4%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 10%; "Not sure" with 4%
- ^ "Other" with 8%; "Do not plan to vote" and "No opinion" with 1%
- ^ Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Archived November 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
- ^ "Undecided" with 3%; "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- ^ "Don't know" with 2%; "Other" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" & "Not sure" with 6%
- ^ "No opinion" with 2%; "Other" & "Do not plan to vote" with 1%
- ^ "No opinion" with 2%; "Other" & "Do not plan to vote" with 1%
- ^ a b c Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
- ^ The boundaries of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district have since changed due to redistricting.
References
- ^ "Election Planning Calendar" (PDF). Essex-Virginia.org. Essex County, Virginia. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 7, 2016. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ^ Singman, Brooke (November 7, 2022). "Donald Trump announces 2024 re-election run for president". Fox News. Archived from the original on November 16, 2022. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
- ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
- ^ Nuzzi, Olivia (November 22, 2023). "The Mind-Bending Politics of RFK Jr". Intelligencer. Archived from the original on March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
The general election is now projected to be a three-way race between Biden, Trump, and their mutual, Kennedy, with a cluster of less popular third-party candidates filling out the constellation.
- ^ a b Benson, Samuel (November 2, 2023). "RFK Jr.'s big gamble". Deseret News. Archived from the original on November 21, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
Early polls show Kennedy polling in the teens or low 20s
- ^ a b c Enten, Harry (November 11, 2023). "How RFK Jr. could change the outcome of the 2024 election". CNN. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ Collins, Eliza (March 26, 2024). "RFK Jr. to Name Nicole Shanahan as Running Mate for Presidential Bid". The Wall Street Journal. Archived from the original on March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 26, 2024.
- ^ For sources on this, see:
- Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023). "How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion — of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
- Allison, Natalie (June 24, 2022). "Roe reversal divides 2024 GOP field". Politico. Archived from the original on June 28, 2022. Retrieved June 25, 2022.
- Weisman, Jonathan (April 11, 2023). "Pressured by Their Base on Abortion, Republicans Strain to Find a Way Forward". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 11, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
- Godfrey, Elaine (May 4, 2022). "The GOP's Strange Turn Against Rape Exceptions". The Atlantic. Archived from the original on May 4, 2022. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023). "How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
- ^ McCammon, Sarah (November 8, 2023). "Abortion rights win big in 2023 elections, again". NPR. Archived from the original on December 15, 2023. Retrieved December 16, 2023.
- ^ a b Colvin, Jill; Miller, Zeke (November 27, 2023). "Trump says he will renew efforts to replace 'Obamacare' if he wins a second term". Associated Press. Archived from the original on December 4, 2023. Retrieved December 4, 2023.
- ^ a b Manchester, Julia (January 29, 2023). "Republicans see education as winning issue in 2024". The Hill. Archived from the original on January 29, 2023. Retrieved July 9, 2023.
- ^ Cook, Charlie (March 2, 2023). "Will 2024 Be About the Economy, or the Candidates?". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on March 25, 2023. Retrieved March 25, 2023.
- ^ Ward, Alexander; Berg, Matt (October 20, 2023). "2024: The foreign policy election?". Politico. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
- ^ Arnsdorf, Isaac. "Trump brags about efforts to stymie border talks: 'Please blame it on me'". New York Times. Archived from the original on January 28, 2024. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
- ^ "Here's where the 2024 presidential candidates stand on LGBTQ+ issues". ABC News. Archived from the original on December 6, 2023. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
- ^ a b Gongloff, Mark (January 30, 2024). "The 2024 election just might turn on … climate change?". Portland Press Herald. Archived from the original on February 13, 2024. Retrieved February 12, 2024.
- ^ Fields, Gary; Sanders, Linley (December 15, 2023). "Americans agree that the 2024 election will be pivotal for democracy, but for different reasons". Associated Press. Archived from the original on December 16, 2023. Retrieved December 16, 2023.
- ^ a b Lemire, Jonathan; Ward, Myah (December 7, 2023). "Trump's 'dictator' remark puts 2024 campaign right where Biden wants it". Politico. Archived from the original on December 9, 2023. Retrieved December 9, 2023.
- ^ "Saving democracy is central to Biden's campaign messaging. Will it resonate with swing state voters?". CBS News. February 18, 2024. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
- ^ "US Election guide: how does the election work?". The Daily Telegraph. November 6, 2012. Archived from the original on November 10, 2015. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
- ^ Megerian, Chris (October 17, 2022). "For Biden and Trump, 2022 is 2020 sequel — and 2024 preview?". Associated Press. Archived from the original on November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
- ^ Baker, Peter (December 2, 2020). "Trump Hints at Another Act in Four Years, Just Like Grover Cleveland". The New York Times. Archived from the original on February 9, 2021. Retrieved July 30, 2022.
- ^ Halpert, Madeline; Drenon, Brandon (December 19, 2023). "Colorado Supreme Court kicks Trump off ballot, citing 'insurrection'". BBC News. Archived from the original on December 20, 2023. Retrieved December 21, 2023.
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- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Forbes/HarrisX
- ^ Activote
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ a b The Center Square/Noble Predictive Insights
- ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b c Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ a b Lord Ashcroft
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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auto6was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto173was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Wall Street Journal
- ^ a b CBS News/YouGov
- ^ a b New York Times/Siena College
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ a b Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
- ^ a b c Harvard/Harris
- ^ a b c Cite error: The named reference
auto185was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b Cite error: The named reference
auto27was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Data for Progress (D)
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Leger/New York Post
- ^ a b I&I/TIPP
- ^ a b New York Times/Siena College
- ^ a b Leger/New York Post
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ a b Cite error: The named reference
auto121was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ CBS News/YouGov
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Fox News
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ NPR/PBS
- ^ a b c d e f Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ CBS News/YouGov
- ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ Navigator Research
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Survey Monkey/The 19th
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ a b I&I/TIPP
- ^ a b Leger/The Canadian Press
- ^ NPR/PBS
- ^ a b McLaughlin & Associates
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ a b Quinnipiac University
- ^ a b Harvard-Harris
- ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ a b Echelon Insights
- ^ Marquette Law University
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ Fox News
- ^ a b Ipsos
- ^ RMG Research
- ^ a b I&I/TIPP
- ^ a b Data for Progress (D)/Zeteo
- ^ KFF
- ^ ABC News
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ a b Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
- ^ a b Leger/The Canadian Press
- ^ a b c HarrisX/Harris
- ^ NPR/PBS
- ^ a b CNN/SSRS
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ John Zogby Strategies
- ^ University of North Florida
- ^ a b Marist College
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ NBC News
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ a b Echelon Insights
- ^ New York Times/Siena College
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ RMG Research
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Data for Progress (D)
- ^ a b NPR/PBS
- ^ Marquette Law School
- ^ Forbes/HarrisX
- ^ Fox News
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ HarrisX/Harris
- ^ a b The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
- ^ Grinnell College
- ^ a b Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ Forbes/HarrisX
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ a b c Quinnipiac University
- ^ Marquette University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ YouGov
- ^ Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
- ^ NPR/PBS
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Harvard-Harris
- ^ The Messenger/HarrisX
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ CBS News
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b c Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Ipsos/With Honor PAC
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ Noble Predictive Insights
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto233was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ a b c Quinnipiac University
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ New York Times/Siena College
- ^ New York Times/Siena College
- ^ Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News
- ^ The Economist/YouGov Poll
- ^ Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/CNBC
- ^ Clarity Campaign Labs
- ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ a b c SSRS/CNN
- ^ The Economist/YouGov Poll
- ^ a b c HarrisX
- ^ YouGov
- ^ Leger
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Harris X/The Messenger
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ NBC News
- ^ a b c Cite error: The named reference
auto37was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo! News
- ^ a b Quinnipiac University
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Rasmussen Reports (R)
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ CBS News/YouGov
- ^ SSRS/CNN
- ^ a b c HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ a b American Pulse Research & Polling
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ a b c USA Today/Suffolk University
- ^ a b Harvard Harris
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Yahoo/YouGov
- ^ Hart Research Associates/Public Opinions Strategies/CNBC
- ^ Grinnell College
- ^ NPR/PBS/Marist College
- ^ a b Fox News
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ a b Echelon Insights
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Marquette University
- ^ a b c Morning Consult
- ^ NBC News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto7was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Fox News
- ^ CNN/SSRS
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Marist College
- ^ Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square
- ^ Big Village
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Marquette University
- ^ a b Morning Consult
- ^ HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ NBC News
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ YouGov
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto139was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Marquette University
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto235was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Premise
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u Morning Consult
- ^ WPA Intelligence
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ ABC News/The Washington Post
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto23was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Premise
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto28was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov
- ^ Premise
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto189was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Marquette University
- ^ Premise
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto31was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto138was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Wick Insights
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ Premise
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto243was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Susquehanna
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto40was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto21was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Premise
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto9was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Quinnipac University
- ^ Ipsos/Reuters
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto183was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto112was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ ABC News/The Washington Post
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto224was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto66was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Marquette University
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto70was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto205was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/YahooNews
- ^ WPA Intelligence
- ^ Data for Progress
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto84was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto13was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto26was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Marquette University
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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auto24was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Léger
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Democracy Corps/GQR
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto238was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Benenson Strategy Group
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto195was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto47was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto62was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Siena College/The New York Times
- ^ John Zogby Strategies
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto181was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto216was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Emerson College
- ^ ABC News/The Washington Post
- ^ Premise
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Siena College/The New York Times
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Premise
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto158was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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auto114was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto69was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto176was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ The New York Times/Siena College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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auto227was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto126was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto105was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Emerson College
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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auto30was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto155was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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auto75was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ University of Massachusetts Lowell
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto219was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Emerson College
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto230was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Wall Street Journal
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto94was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ NewsNation
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto102was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto124was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto174was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto35was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Marquette Law School Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto100was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto98was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto159was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ "PMC/John Bolton Super Pac". Archived from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved March 4, 2023.
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto93was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Harvard/Harris
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Wall Street Journal
- ^ Echelon Insights [permanent dead link]
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto134was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto49was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Marquette Law School Archived November 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Harvard/Harris
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Selzer and Company/Grinnell College
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto122was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto169was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ "PMC/John Bolton Super Pac" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on July 19, 2021. Retrieved March 4, 2023.
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Ipsos/Reuters
- ^ "PMC/John Bolton Super Pac" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 29, 2021. Retrieved March 4, 2023.
- ^ Wall Street Journal
- ^ USA Today/Suffolk University
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Marist College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto168was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ AtlasIntel/CNN Brazil
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ New York Post/YouGov
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Fox News
- ^ USA Today
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ ABC News/Ipsos
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/NBC News
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ NY Times/Siena
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ I&I\TIPP
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ Patriot Polling
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto72was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Change Research (D)
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Harvard/Harris
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Sienna College
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ a b c Quinnipiac University
- ^ Redfield & Wilton
- ^ Susquehanna
- ^ McLaughlin and Associates
- ^ USA Today/Suffolk University
- ^ Yahoo News/YouGov
- ^ NPR/PBS/Marist
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ American Values
- ^ The Wall Street Journal
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Big Village
- ^ Big Village
- ^ Big Village
- ^ HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ Big Village
- ^ CNN/SSRS
- ^ McLaughlin and Associates (R)
- ^ Harris X/The Messenger
- ^ Harvard/Harris X
- ^ Zogby Analytics
- ^ Big Village
- ^ Big Village
- ^ Big Village
- ^ HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ Big Village
- ^ CNN/SSRS
- ^ McLaughlin and Associates (R)
- ^ Harris X/The Messenger
- ^ Harvard/Harris X
- ^ Zogby Analytics
- ^ "2022 Cook PVI: State Map and List". Cook Political Report. December 15, 2017. Archived from the original on July 13, 2022. Retrieved July 12, 2022.
- ^ "Federal Elections 2020" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. July 2023.
- ^ Gonzales, Nathan L. (April 26, 2023). "Initial 2024 Presidential Battleground State Ratings". Inside Elections. Archived from the original on May 1, 2023. Retrieved June 30, 2023.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Archived from the original on December 20, 2023. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
- ^ "2024 CNalysis Pres. Forecast". CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Archived from the original on December 25, 2023. Retrieved January 12, 2024.
- ^ Kondik, Kyle (January 3, 2024). "The President Race at the Dawn of a New Year". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on January 7, 2024. Retrieved January 7, 2024.
- ^ "Road to 270". CNN. January 31, 2024. Archived from the original on January 30, 2024. Retrieved January 31, 2024.
- ^ Cohen, Ethan (November 20, 2023). "Commission on Presidential Debates announces dates and locations for 2024 general election debates". CNN. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
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