Great Acceleration
The Great Acceleration refers to the dramatic continual and roughly simultaneous surge in growth rate across a large range of measures of human activity, first recorded in mid-20th century and continuing to this day.[1][2] Within the concept of the proposed epoch of anthropocene, these measures are specifically those of humanity's impact upon the Earth's geology and its ecosystems. In the concept, the Great Acceleration can be variously classified as the only age of the epoch to date, one of many ages of the epoch – depending on the epoch's proposed start date – or a basic feature of the epoch that is thus not an age, as well as other classifications[3][4].
Environmental historian J. R. McNeill has argued that the Great Acceleration is idiosyncratic of the current age and is doomed to halt in the near future, and one that has never happened before and will never happen again[5]. However, climate change scientist and chemist Will Steffen's team have found that evidence is inconclusive to testify or rule out such a claim.
Related to Great Acceleration is the concept of accelerating change. While not explicitly commenting on whether Great Acceleration as a whole is set to continue into the near future, the common implication is that the particular trend of accelerating progress won't cease until technological singularity is achieved, at which point technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unfathomable changes to the Earth and sometimes even the universe itself.[5] Therefore, while adherents of the theory do not comment of the short-term fate of Great Acceleration, they do hold that its eventual fate is that it will continue, which also contradicts McNeill's conclusions. Numerous notable scientists, futurists and public figures such as Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, John von Neumann, Ray Kurzweil, Nick Bostrom, and others support this theory.
Overview
In tracking the effects of human activity upon the Earth, a number of socioeconomic and earth system parameters are utilized including population, economics, water usage, food production, transportation, technology, green house gases, surface temperature, and natural resource usage.[6] The Anthropocene is typically depicted as following the Holocene, to emphasize the central role of humankind in geology and ecology.[5] Since 1950, these trends are increasing significantly if not exponentially.[7]
Great Acceleration Data Classification Categories
The international Geosphere-Biosphere Programme has divided and analyzed data from years 1750 to 2010 into two broad categories each with 12 subcategories.[8] The first category of socioeconomic trend data illustrates the impact on the second, the earth system trend data.
Socioeconomic trends
- Population
- Real GDP
- Foreign Direct Investment
- Urban population
- Primary energy use
- Fertiliser consumption
- Large dams
- Water use
- Paper production
- Transportation
- Telecommunications
- International Tourism
Earth System Trends
- Carbon dioxide
- Nitrous oxide
- Methane
- Stratospheric ozone
- Surface temperature
- Ocean acidification
- Marine fish capture
- Shrimp aquaculture
- Nitrogen to coastal zone
- Tropical forest loss
- Domesticated land
- Terrestrial biosphere degradation
See also
- Accelerating change – Perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history
- Future Shock – 1970 book by Alvin Toffler
- Buckminster Fuller – American philosopher, architect and inventor (1895–1983)
References
- ^ "Definition of Great Acceleration". Future Earth.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ Steffen, Will. "Rough definition of Great Acceleration". SagePub.
- ^ "Definition of Great Acceleration presenting it as a basic feature and cause of the anthropocene".
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ "Alternative definition of Great Acceleration".
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ a b c Mcneill, J. R. (2014). The Great Acceleration: An Environmental History of the Anthropocene since 1945. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. ISBN 978-0674545038.
- ^ Steffen, Will; Crutzen, Paul J.; McNeill, John R. (2007). "The Anthropocene: Are Humans Now Overwhelming the Great Forces of Nature?". Ambio. 36 (8): 614–621. doi:10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[614:TAAHNO]2.0.CO;2. JSTOR 25547826.
- ^ ANTHROPOCENE. "Welcome to the Anthropocene". Welcome to the Anthropocene. Retrieved March 10, 2018.
- ^ Broadgate, Wendy; et al. "The Great Acceleration data (October 2014)". International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. Retrieved 21 April 2018.
