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'''Severe Tropical Storm Rai''', known in the Philippines as '''Severe Tropical Storm Odette''', is a currently active tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific Ocean that is threatening [[Palau]] and the [[Philippines]]. It is the fortieth tropical depression, and the twenty-second tropical storm of the [[2021 Pacific typhoon season]], the system originated from a tropical disturbance near the equator on December 9. However, it dissipated on the next day as another area of convection lingered near the dissipating feature on that day. Conditions around the system were favorable for future development, and it slowly developed into a tropical depression on December 12. Also this day, the JTWC issued a TCFA on the consolidating depression. Future intensification ensued, and Rai was upgraded into a tropical storm on the next day before passing south of Ngulu Atoll.
'''Severe Tropical Storm Rai''', known in the Philippines as '''Severe Tropical Storm Odette''', is a currently active tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific Ocean that is threatening [[Palau]] and the [[Philippines]]. It is the fortieth tropical depression, and the twenty-second tropical storm of the [[2021 Pacific typhoon season]], the system originated from a tropical disturbance near the equator on December 9. However, it dissipated on the next day as another area of convection lingered near the dissipating feature that same day. Conditions around the system were favorable for further development, and it slowly developed into a tropical depression on December 12. On the same day, the United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]] (JTWC) issued a [[Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert]] (TCFA) on the consolidating depression. Future intensification ensued, and Rai was upgraded into a tropical storm on the next day before passing south of [[Ngulu Atoll]].


Tropical cyclone warnings were issued for some islands of the Caroline Islands as Rai developed.
Tropical cyclone warnings were issued for areas in the [[Philippines]] and parts of the [[Caroline Islands]] as Rai developed.


== Meteorological history ==
== Meteorological history ==
{{storm path|Rai 2021 track.png}}
{{storm path|Rai 2021 track.png}}
At 06:00 UTC of December 9, the United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]] (JTWC) started to monitor a low-latitude area of convection in the Pacific Ocean at {{Coord|4.6|N|142.4|E|name=}}, located about {{convert|350|nmi}} to [[Palau]]'s east-southeast. This system is designated as "Invest 95W" by the bureau. A broad circulation was identified by the agency, with flaring convection over it. Marginal conditions for further development is also analysed by JTWC, with low to moderate [[wind shear]] and fair [[Outflow (meteorology)|outflow]]. However, [[sea surface temperatures]] of {{convert|30-31|C}} is seen to support the storm's intensification.<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt|title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans 090600Z-100600Z December 2021|date=9 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-09-0620-abpwweb.txt|archive-date=9 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref> However, the system remained weak despite the given environment, and dissipated by 06:00 UTC the next day. However, another new area of low-pressure, this time designated as "Invest 96W" formed at this time. Analysis on the system revealed a degraded and disorganized [[low-level circulation center]] (LLCC).<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt|title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans Reissued 092200Z-100600Z December 2021|date=9 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-09-2130-abpwweb.txt|archive-date=9 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{Cite report|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt|title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans 100600Z-110600Z December 2021|date=10 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-10-0630-abpwweb.txt|archive-date=10 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref> Position fixes by 02:30 UTC of December 11 determined that its center forwarded to the north while convective bursts occurred around the system. It is also located over a developing [[trough (meteorology)|surface trough]] and at this time, the JTWC raised the system's probability of development from "medium" to an earlier "low".<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt|title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans Reissued 110230Z-110600Z December 2021|date=11 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-11-0240-abpwweb.txt|archive-date=11 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref> An ASCAT pass featured below gale-force winds on its northwest quadrant.<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt|title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans 110600Z-120600Z December 2021|date=11 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-11-0650-abpwweb.txt|archive-date=11 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref>
At 06:00 UTC of December 9, the JTWC started to monitor a low-latitude area of convection in the Pacific Ocean at {{Coord|4.6|N|142.4|E|name=}}, located about {{convert|350|nmi}} to [[Palau]]'s east-southeast. A broad circulation was identified by the agency, with flaring convection over it. The circulation had a marginal environment with low to moderate [[wind shear]], fair [[Outflow (meteorology)|outflow]], and warm [[sea surface temperatures]].<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt|title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans 090600Z-100600Z December 2021|date=9 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-09-0620-abpwweb.txt|archive-date=9 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref> Despite its given environment, however, the cyclone failed to intensify and dissipated by 06:00 UTC the next day.


The [[Japan Meteorological Agency]] (JMA) first upgraded the system to a tropical depression with winds of {{convert|30|knots}} on 00:00 UTC of the next day, followed by the JTWC upgrading the storm's chances of developing to "high" and subsequently issuing a [[Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert]] (TCFA).<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/RJTD/Alphanumeric/Warning/Warnings_and_weather_summary/20211212/000000/A_WWJP25RJTD120000_C_RJTD_20211212023332_86.txt|title=WWJP25 RJTD 120000|publisher=[[Japan Meteorological Agency]]|location=Tokyo, Japan|date=December 12, 2021|access-date=December 12, 2021|archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/F4Vpj|archive-date=December 12, 2021}}</ref><ref>{{Cite report|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt|title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans Reissued 120330Z-120600Z December 2021|date=12 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-12-0310-abpwweb.txt|archive-date=11 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{Cite report|date=12 December 2021|title=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest 96W)|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9621web.txt|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-12-0250-wp9621web.txt|archive-date=12 December 2021|publisher=United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center}}</ref> By 03:00 UTC of December 13, the JTWC upgraded the system into a weak tropical depression, highly based on Dvorak ratings of T1.5.<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt|title=Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Depression 28W (Twentyeight) Warning NR 001|date=13 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=13 December 2021|archive-url=https://archive.md/2021.12.13-030529/https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt|archive-date=13 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref> Nine hours later, the JMA classified the system as a tropical storm and gave it the next name on their naming list, ''Rai''. At this time, the system became compact and this classification was based on Dvorak ratings and surface observations.<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtpq30.rjtd..txt|title=RSMC Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning No. 7 for TS 2122 Rai (2122)|date=December 13, 2021|publisher=[[Japan Meteorological Agency]]|access-date=December 14, 2021|archive-url=https://archive.md/2021.12.13-152755/https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtpq30.rjtd..txt|archive-date=December 13, 2021}}</ref> It was not until 15:00 UTC that day when the JTWC did the same to Rai, while tracking northwestwards.<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt|title=Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 28W (Rai) Warning NR 003|date=13 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=14 December 2021|archive-url=https://archive.md/2021.12.13-152959/https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt|archive-date=13 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref> Three hours later, Rai began to pass over Ngulu State's south, while continuing to intensify and organize.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Tropical Storm Rai (28W) Intermediate Advisory Number 3A|url=https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GUM|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/CA9o8|archive-date=13 December 2021|access-date=13 December 2021|website=forecast.weather.gov|publisher=National Weather Service, Tiyan}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=Tropical Storm Rai (28W) Intermediate Advisory Number 4|url=https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GUM|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/TJ5w2|archive-date=13 December 2021|access-date=13 December 2021|website=forecast.weather.gov|publisher=National Weather Service, Tiyan}}</ref> By December 14 in the early morning, the system was upgraded into a severe tropical storm by the JMA, despite some dry air around the storm.<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtpq30.rjtd..txt|title=RSMC Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning No. 9 for STS 2122 Rai (2122)|date=December 14, 2021|publisher=[[Japan Meteorological Agency]]|access-date=December 14, 2021|archive-url=https://archive.md/2021.12.14-025255/https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtpq30.rjtd..txt|archive-date=December 13, 2021}}</ref>
Another new area of low pressure formed on December 10. Analysis on the system revealed a degraded and disorganized [[low-level circulation center]].<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt|title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans Reissued 092200Z-100600Z December 2021|date=9 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-09-2130-abpwweb.txt|archive-date=9 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{Cite report|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt|title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans 100600Z-110600Z December 2021|date=10 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-10-0630-abpwweb.txt|archive-date=10 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref> Position fixes by 02:30 UTC of December 11 determined that its center forwarded to the north over a developing [[trough (meteorology)|surface trough]] while convective bursts occurred around the system.<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt|title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans Reissued 110230Z-110600Z December 2021|date=11 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-11-0240-abpwweb.txt|archive-date=11 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref> An ASCAT pass featured below gale-force winds on its northwest quadrant.<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt|title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans 110600Z-120600Z December 2021|date=11 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-11-0650-abpwweb.txt|archive-date=11 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref>

The [[Japan Meteorological Agency]] (JMA) first upgraded the system to a tropical depression with winds of {{convert|30|knots}} on 00:00 UTC of the next day, followed by the JTWC upgrading the storm's chances of developing to "high" and subsequently issuing a TCFA.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/RJTD/Alphanumeric/Warning/Warnings_and_weather_summary/20211212/000000/A_WWJP25RJTD120000_C_RJTD_20211212023332_86.txt|title=WWJP25 RJTD 120000|publisher=[[Japan Meteorological Agency]]|location=Tokyo, Japan|date=December 12, 2021|access-date=December 12, 2021|archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/F4Vpj|archive-date=December 12, 2021}}</ref><ref>{{Cite report|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt|title=Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans Reissued 120330Z-120600Z December 2021|date=12 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-12-0310-abpwweb.txt|archive-date=11 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{Cite report|date=12 December 2021|title=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest 96W)|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9621web.txt|archive-url=https://wiki.chlod.net/jtwc/text/2021-12-12-0250-wp9621web.txt|archive-date=12 December 2021|publisher=United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center}}</ref> By 03:00 UTC of December 13, the JTWC upgraded the system into a weak tropical depression, highly based on [[Dvorak technique|Dvorak ratings]] of T1.5.<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt|title=Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Depression 28W (Twentyeight) Warning NR 001|date=13 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=13 December 2021|archive-url=https://archive.md/2021.12.13-030529/https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt|archive-date=13 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref> Nine hours later, the JMA classified the system as a tropical storm based on Dvorak ratings and named the storm ''Rai''.<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtpq30.rjtd..txt|title=RSMC Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning No. 7 for TS 2122 Rai (2122)|date=December 13, 2021|publisher=[[Japan Meteorological Agency]]|access-date=December 14, 2021|archive-url=https://archive.md/2021.12.13-152755/https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtpq30.rjtd..txt|archive-date=December 13, 2021}}</ref> It was not until 15:00 UTC that day when the JTWC did the same to Rai, as it began tracking northwestwards while nearing [[Palau]].<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt|title=Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 28W (Rai) Warning NR 003|date=13 December 2021|publisher=United States [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]|access-date=14 December 2021|archive-url=https://archive.md/2021.12.13-152959/https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt|archive-date=13 December 2021|url-status=dead}}</ref> Three hours later, Rai began to pass south of Ngulu State, while continuing to intensify and organize.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Tropical Storm Rai (28W) Intermediate Advisory Number 3A|url=https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GUM|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/CA9o8|archive-date=13 December 2021|access-date=13 December 2021|website=forecast.weather.gov|publisher=National Weather Service, Tiyan}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=Tropical Storm Rai (28W) Intermediate Advisory Number 4|url=https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GUM|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/TJ5w2|archive-date=13 December 2021|access-date=13 December 2021|website=forecast.weather.gov|publisher=National Weather Service, Tiyan}}</ref> By December 14 in the early morning, the system was upgraded into a severe tropical storm by the JMA.<ref>{{Cite report|url=https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtpq30.rjtd..txt|title=RSMC Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning No. 9 for STS 2122 Rai (2122)|date=December 14, 2021|publisher=[[Japan Meteorological Agency]]|access-date=December 14, 2021|archive-url=https://archive.md/2021.12.14-025255/https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtpq30.rjtd..txt|archive-date=December 13, 2021}}</ref> The storm entered the [[Philippine Area of Responsibility]] around 11:00 UTC (19:00 [[Philippine Standard Time|PHT]]), and was named ''Odette'' by the PAGASA.<ref>{{Cite tweet|number=1470716956630470656|user=dost_pagasa|title=At 7:00 PM today, Severe Tropical Storm RAI entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was assigned the domestic name #OdettePH. [...]|author=PAGASA-DOST}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite PAGASA|date=2021-12-14|name=Odette|intl_name=Rai|type=tcb|no=1|category=STS|url=https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/bulletin_odette.pdf|archive-url=https://archive.org/download/pagasa-21-TC15/PAGASA_21-TC15_Odette_TCB%2301.pdf}}</ref>


==== Current storm information ====
==== Current storm information ====
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* '''[[Eastern Visayas]]''' {{small|(Region VIII)}}
* '''[[Eastern Visayas]]''' {{small|(Region VIII)}}
** southeastern portion of [[Eastern Samar]] {{small|([[Guiuan]], [[Mercedes, Eastern Samar|Mercedes]], [[Salcedo, Eastern Samar|Salcedo]])}}
** southeastern portion of [[Eastern Samar]] {{small|([[Guiuan]], [[Mercedes, Eastern Samar|Mercedes]], [[Salcedo, Eastern Samar|Salcedo]])}}
* '''[[Caraga|Caraga Administrative Region]]''' {{small|(Region XII)}}
* '''[[Caraga|Caraga Administrative Region]]''' {{small|(Region XIII)}}
** eastern portion of [[Surigao del Norte]] {{small|([[Claver, Surigao del Norte|Claver]], [[Surigao City]], [[Tagana-an]], [[Placer, Surigao del Norte|Placer]], [[Gigaquit]], [[Bacuag]])}}
** eastern portion of [[Surigao del Norte]] {{small|([[Claver, Surigao del Norte|Claver]], [[Surigao City]], [[Tagana-an]], [[Placer, Surigao del Norte|Placer]], [[Gigaquit]], [[Bacuag]])}}
*** [[Siargao|Siargao Island]]
*** [[Siargao|Siargao Island]]
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{{clear}}
{{clear}}


== Preparations and impact ==
== Preparations ==
Upon the system's intensification into a tropical depression, a typhoon watch was issued by the US National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam in [[Koror]] and [[Kayangel]] while a tropical storm warning was placed for [[Ngulu Atoll]]. The island of [[Yap]] was placed also under tropical storm watch.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Tropical Depression 28W Advisory Number 1|url=https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GUM&issuedby=PQ1&product=TCP&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/6sm7F|archive-date=13 December 2021|access-date=13 December 2021|website=forecast.weather.gov|publisher=National Weather Service, Tiyan}}</ref>
Upon the system's intensification into a tropical depression, a typhoon watch was issued by the US National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam in [[Koror]] and [[Kayangel]] while a tropical storm warning was placed for [[Ngulu Atoll]]. The island of [[Yap]] was placed also under tropical storm watch.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Tropical Depression 28W Advisory Number 1|url=https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GUM&issuedby=PQ1&product=TCP&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/6sm7F|archive-date=13 December 2021|access-date=13 December 2021|website=forecast.weather.gov|publisher=National Weather Service, Tiyan}}</ref>


The [[PAGASA]] began issuing Tropical Cyclone Advisories as early as December 12 given the forecasted track of the storm. In its first advisory, the PAGASA forecasted the possibility of [[TCWS|Signal #4]] being raised over the Visayas and Mindanao regions, later lowered to Signal #3.<ref>{{Cite PAGASA|date=December 12, 2021|type=tca|no=1|category=TD|url=https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/tca/TCA%231.pdf}}</ref><ref>{{Cite PAGASA|date=December 12, 2021|type=tca|no=2|category=TD|url=https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/tca/TCA%232.pdf}}</ref> Rai is forecasted to impact the [[Caraga]] or [[Eastern Visayas]] by December 16. Winds up to {{convert|89-117|kph|abbr=on}} were also foreseen to slash the region while over {{convert|118-220|kph|abbr=on}} in isolated areas.<ref>{{Cite news|title=Tropical storm "Rai", posibleng pumasok ng PAR bukas at tatawaging Bagyong Odette... {{!}} 24 Oras|trans-title=Tropical storm "Rai", is likely to enter the PAR tomorrow and will be called Typhoon Odette ... {{!}} 24 Oras|work=GMA News|publisher=|url=https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/video/24oras/578235/tropical-storm-rai-posibleng-pumasok-ng-par-bukas-at-tatawaging-bagyong-odette-ang-ika-15-bagyo-ngayong-2021/video/|access-date=13 December 2021}}</ref> The PAGASA also forecasted winds of up to {{Convert|155|kph|mph|abbr=on}} prior to landfall.<ref>{{Cite PAGASA|date=December 13, 2021|intl_name=Rai|type=tca|no=5|category=TS|url=https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/tcadvisory.pdf|archive-url=https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/tca/TCA%235.pdf}}</ref>
The [[PAGASA]] began issuing Tropical Cyclone Advisories as early as December 12 given the forecasted track of the storm. In its first advisory, the PAGASA forecasted the possibility of [[TCWS|Signal #4]] being raised over the Visayas and Mindanao regions, later lowered to Signal #3.<ref>{{Cite PAGASA|date=December 12, 2021|type=tca|no=1|category=TD|url=https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/tca/TCA%231.pdf|archive-url=https://archive.org/download/pagasa-21-TC15/PAGASA_21-TC15_Odette_TCA%2301.pdf}}</ref><ref>{{Cite PAGASA|date=December 12, 2021|type=tca|no=2|category=TD|url=https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/tca/TCA%232.pdf|archive-url=https://archive.org/download/pagasa-21-TC15/PAGASA_21-TC15_Odette_TCA%2302.pdf}}</ref> The PAGASA also forecasted winds of up to {{Convert|155|kph|mph|abbr=on}} prior to landfall.<ref>{{Cite PAGASA|date=December 13, 2021|intl_name=Rai|type=tca|no=5|category=TS|url=https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/tcadvisory.pdf|archive-url=https://archive.org/download/pagasa-21-TC15/PAGASA_21-TC15_Odette_TCA%2305.pdf}}</ref> On December 14, storm signals were raised in [[Caraga]] and [[Eastern Visayas]] as the storm entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility.<ref name=":0">{{Cite PAGASA|date=2021-12-14|name=Odette|intl_name=Rai|type=tcb|no=1|category=STS|url=https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/bulletin_odette.pdf|archive-url=https://archive.org/download/pagasa-21-TC15/PAGASA_21-TC15_Odette_TCB%2301.pdf}}</ref>


==See also==
==See also==

Revision as of 16:47, 14 December 2021

For other storms named Rai, see Typhoon Rai.
Rai (Odette)
Current storm status
Severe tropical storm  (JMA)
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:15:00 UTC, December 14
Location:9°06′N 134°12′E / 9.1°N 134.2°E / 9.1; 134.2 (Rai (Odette))
72 nmi (133 km; 83 mi) N of Koror, Palau
Sustained winds:55 knots (100 km/h; 65 mph) (10-min mean)
gusting to 80 knots (150 km/h; 90 mph)
55 knots (100 km/h; 65 mph) (1-min mean)
Pressure:985 hPa (29.09 inHg)
Movement:NW at 15 kn (28 km/h; 17 mph)
See more detailed information.

Severe Tropical Storm Rai, known in the Philippines as Severe Tropical Storm Odette, is a currently active tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific Ocean that is threatening Palau and the Philippines. It is the fortieth tropical depression, and the twenty-second tropical storm of the 2021 Pacific typhoon season, the system originated from a tropical disturbance near the equator on December 9. However, it dissipated on the next day as another area of convection lingered near the dissipating feature that same day. Conditions around the system were favorable for further development, and it slowly developed into a tropical depression on December 12. On the same day, the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) on the consolidating depression. Future intensification ensued, and Rai was upgraded into a tropical storm on the next day before passing south of Ngulu Atoll.

Tropical cyclone warnings were issued for areas in the Philippines and parts of the Caroline Islands as Rai developed.

Meteorological history

Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

At 06:00 UTC of December 9, the JTWC started to monitor a low-latitude area of convection in the Pacific Ocean at 4°36′N 142°24′E / 4.6°N 142.4°E / 4.6; 142.4, located about 350 nautical miles (650 km; 400 mi) to Palau's east-southeast. A broad circulation was identified by the agency, with flaring convection over it. The circulation had a marginal environment with low to moderate wind shear, fair outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.[1] Despite its given environment, however, the cyclone failed to intensify and dissipated by 06:00 UTC the next day.

Another new area of low pressure formed on December 10. Analysis on the system revealed a degraded and disorganized low-level circulation center.[2][3] Position fixes by 02:30 UTC of December 11 determined that its center forwarded to the north over a developing surface trough while convective bursts occurred around the system.[4] An ASCAT pass featured below gale-force winds on its northwest quadrant.[5]

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) first upgraded the system to a tropical depression with winds of 30 knots (56 km/h; 35 mph) on 00:00 UTC of the next day, followed by the JTWC upgrading the storm's chances of developing to "high" and subsequently issuing a TCFA.[6][7][8] By 03:00 UTC of December 13, the JTWC upgraded the system into a weak tropical depression, highly based on Dvorak ratings of T1.5.[9] Nine hours later, the JMA classified the system as a tropical storm based on Dvorak ratings and named the storm Rai.[10] It was not until 15:00 UTC that day when the JTWC did the same to Rai, as it began tracking northwestwards while nearing Palau.[11] Three hours later, Rai began to pass south of Ngulu State, while continuing to intensify and organize.[12][13] By December 14 in the early morning, the system was upgraded into a severe tropical storm by the JMA.[14] The storm entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility around 11:00 UTC (19:00 PHT), and was named Odette by the PAGASA.[15][16]

Current storm information

As of 15:00 UTC December 14, Severe Tropical Storm Rai (Odette) is located near 9°06′N 134°12′E / 9.1°N 134.2°E / 9.1; 134.2 (Rai) or about 72 nmi (133 km; 83 mi) north of Koror, Palau. Maximum 10-minute sustained winds are at 55 knots (100 km/h; 65 mph), with gusts up to 80 knots (150 km/h; 90 mph), while maximum 1-minute sustained winds are at 55 knots (100 km/h; 65 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure is 985 hPa (29.09 inHg), and the system is moving northwest at 15 kn (28 km/h; 17 mph).

For the latest official information, see

Watches and warnings

Template:TyphoonWarningsTable

Preparations

Upon the system's intensification into a tropical depression, a typhoon watch was issued by the US National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam in Koror and Kayangel while a tropical storm warning was placed for Ngulu Atoll. The island of Yap was placed also under tropical storm watch.[17]

The PAGASA began issuing Tropical Cyclone Advisories as early as December 12 given the forecasted track of the storm. In its first advisory, the PAGASA forecasted the possibility of Signal #4 being raised over the Visayas and Mindanao regions, later lowered to Signal #3.[18][19] The PAGASA also forecasted winds of up to 155 km/h (96 mph) prior to landfall.[20] On December 14, storm signals were raised in Caraga and Eastern Visayas as the storm entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility.[16]

See also

References

  1. ^ Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans 090600Z-100600Z December 2021 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 9 December 2021. Archived from the original on 9 December 2021. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
  2. ^ Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans Reissued 092200Z-100600Z December 2021 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 9 December 2021. Archived from the original on 9 December 2021. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
  3. ^ Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans 100600Z-110600Z December 2021 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 10 December 2021. Archived from the original on 10 December 2021. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
  4. ^ Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans Reissued 110230Z-110600Z December 2021 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 11 December 2021. Archived from the original on 11 December 2021. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
  5. ^ Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans 110600Z-120600Z December 2021 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 11 December 2021. Archived from the original on 11 December 2021. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
  6. ^ "WWJP25 RJTD 120000". Tokyo, Japan: Japan Meteorological Agency. December 12, 2021. Archived from the original on December 12, 2021. Retrieved December 12, 2021.
  7. ^ Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans Reissued 120330Z-120600Z December 2021 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 12 December 2021. Archived from the original on 11 December 2021. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
  8. ^ Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest 96W) (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 12 December 2021. Archived from the original on 12 December 2021.
  9. ^ Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Depression 28W (Twentyeight) Warning NR 001 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 13 December 2021. Archived from the original on 13 December 2021. Retrieved 13 December 2021.
  10. ^ RSMC Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning No. 7 for TS 2122 Rai (2122) (Report). Japan Meteorological Agency. December 13, 2021. Archived from the original on December 13, 2021. Retrieved December 14, 2021.
  11. ^ Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 28W (Rai) Warning NR 003 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 13 December 2021. Archived from the original on 13 December 2021. Retrieved 14 December 2021.
  12. ^ "Tropical Storm Rai (28W) Intermediate Advisory Number 3A". forecast.weather.gov. National Weather Service, Tiyan. Archived from the original on 13 December 2021. Retrieved 13 December 2021.
  13. ^ "Tropical Storm Rai (28W) Intermediate Advisory Number 4". forecast.weather.gov. National Weather Service, Tiyan. Archived from the original on 13 December 2021. Retrieved 13 December 2021.
  14. ^ RSMC Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning No. 9 for STS 2122 Rai (2122) (Report). Japan Meteorological Agency. December 14, 2021. Archived from the original on December 13, 2021. Retrieved December 14, 2021.
  15. ^ PAGASA-DOST [@dost_pagasa] (December 14, 2021). "At 7:00 PM today, Severe Tropical Storm RAI entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was assigned the domestic name #OdettePH. [...]" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  16. ^ a b "Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1 for Severe Tropical Storm 'Odette' (Rai)" (PDF). PAGASA. 14 December 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on 14 December 2021. Retrieved 14 December 2021.
  17. ^ "Tropical Depression 28W Advisory Number 1". forecast.weather.gov. National Weather Service, Tiyan. Archived from the original on 13 December 2021. Retrieved 13 December 2021.
  18. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 for Tropical Depression" (PDF). PAGASA. 12 December 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on 12 December 2021. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
  19. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2 for Tropical Depression" (PDF). PAGASA. 12 December 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on 12 December 2021. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
  20. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5 for Tropical Storm 'Rai'" (PDF). PAGASA. 13 December 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on 13 December 2021. Retrieved 13 December 2021.
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