Severe mitral regurgitation requiring surgery is the most common life-threatening complication of mitral valve prolapse (MVP) and is due to progressive myxomatous change in the valve. We identified all residents of New South Wales, Australia, who had mitral valve surgery for myxomatous valve disease during 1982 and, using these data and the adult population statistics from 1982, estimated the cumulative risk of valve surgery in patients with MVP. In 1982, 50 of the 5.36 million New South Wales residents required surgery for this complication of MVP. Of the 50, 36 were men and 14 were women, which was significantly different from the population sex distribution (p less than 0.02) for mean age +/- SD of 60 +/- 11 years (range, 26-78 years). Using our previously determined 4% prevalence of adult MVP in New South Wales, we estimated the number of male and female patients with MVP at risk for each 5-year age interval and calculated age-specific event rates. The results show that the cumulative risk is minimal below the age of 50 years but then rises steeply, particularly in men. The risks in men aged 50, 60, and 70 years (with 95% confidence intervals) were 1:202 (130-448), 1:53 (37-82), and 1:28 (22-41), respectively. In women, the risk was less than half that in men (p less than 0.001).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)