Objective

The aim of this study was to develop and assess a radiomics model utilizing multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the prediction of preoperative risk assessment in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs).

Material and methods

An analysis was performed retrospectively on a group of 121 patients who received a histological diagnosis of GIST. They were then divided into two sets, with 85 in the training set and 36 in the validation set through random partitioning. Radiomics features from five MRI sequences, totaling 600 per patient, were extracted and subjected to feature selection utilizing a random forest algorithm. The discriminatory efficacy of the models was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall (P-R) curve analyses. Model calibration was assessed via calibration curves. Subgroup analysis was performed on GISTs with a pathological maximum diameter equal to or less than 5 cm. Furtherly, Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves and log-rank tests were used to compare the differences in survival status among different groups. Cox regression analysis was employed to identify independent prognostic factors and to construct a prognostic prediction model.

Results

The clinical model (Model^C) displayed limited predictive efficacy in the context of GIST. Conversely, a radiomics model (Model^R) incorporating five parameters exhibited robust discriminative capabilities across both the training and validation sets, yielding area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.893 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.807-0.949) and 0.855 (95% CI: 0.732-0.978), respectively. The F1_max scores derived from the P‑R curves were 0.741 and 0.842 for the training and validation sets, respectively. Noteworthy was the exclusion of the two-dimensional tumor diameter and tumor location when constructing a hybrid model (Model^CR) that amalgamated radiomics and clinical features. Model^R demonstrated a substantially enhanced discriminative capacity in the training set compared with Model^C (p < 0.005). The net reclassification improvement (NRI) corroborated the superior performance of Model^R over Model^C, thereby enhancing diagnostic accuracy and clinical applicability. Patients in the high-risk group had significantly worse recurrence-free survival (RFS, p < 0.001) and overall survival (OS, p = 0.004), and the radiomics signature is an independent risk factor for RFS. The extended model incorporating the radiomics signature outperformed the baseline model in terms of risk assessment accuracy (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Our investigation underscores the value of integrating radiomics analysis in conjunction with machine learning algorithms for prognostic risk stratification in GIST, presenting promising implications for informing clinical decision-making processes as well as optimizing management strategies.