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Manifold (prediction market)

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Manifold
Available inEnglish
Founded2021; 3 years ago (2021)
Founder(s)Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett
URLmanifold.markets
Current statusActive

Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform.[1][2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'mana'.[3] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars.[4]

History

Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization.[5]

Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program.[6] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund,[7] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[8]

In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny.[6]

Market structure

Manifold is a reputation-based prediction market. The website's play money, 'mana,' can be used on the site and redeemed for charitable donations at the value of 100 mana = $1 (USD), but it cannot be redeemed for money otherwise,[9] allowing Manifold to avoid regulations around gambling.[6][10] Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap".[11]

See also

References

  1. ^ "Why a "room-temperature superconductor" would be a huge deal". Vox. 7 August 2023. Archived from the original on 2023-08-31. Retrieved 2023-08-31. Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out.
  2. ^ Frick, Walter. "Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets". Nieman Lab. Archived from the original on 2023-06-03. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  3. ^ Taylor, Michael. "Taylor: Can you see into the future? Online prediction markets can — and they let you bet on it". San Antonio Express News. Retrieved 6 February 2024.
  4. ^ Henshall, Will (2024-02-14). "Meet the People Making Actual Bets on Love". TIME. Retrieved 2024-02-14.
  5. ^ Richard Hanania. "Mana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania". CSPI (Podcast). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  6. ^ a b c Roose, Kevin (2023-10-08). "The Wager That Betting Can Change the World". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-10-08.
  7. ^ Ashworth, Louis (2022-12-19). "How to spend a million dollars, by Sam Bankman-Fried". Financial Times. Archived from the original on 2023-03-24. Retrieved 2023-08-31.
  8. ^ "SFF-2022-H1 S-Process Recommendations Announcement". Survival and Flourishing.Fund (SFF). Archived from the original on 2023-08-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
  9. ^ "About". Manifold. Archived from the original on 2023-04-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
  10. ^ "Manifold Markets - EA Forum". forum.effectivealtruism.org. Archived from the original on 2023-08-30. Retrieved 2023-08-30.
  11. ^ Frongillo, Rafael; Papireddygari, Maneesha; Waggoner, Bo (2023). "An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets". arXiv:2302.00196 [cs.GT].
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