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2024 Northern Territory general election

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2024 Northern Territory general election

← 2020 24 August 2024 2028 →

All 25 seats in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Reporting
57.8%
as of 1:50 ACST
  First party Second party
 
Lia Finocchiaro (cropped).jpg
EvaLawler2023cropped.jpg
Leader Lia Finocchiaro Eva Lawler
Party Country Liberal Labor
Leader since 1 February 2020 21 December 2023
Leader's seat Spillett Drysdale
(lost seat)
Last election 8 seats, 31.34% 14 seats, 39.43%
Seats before 7[a] 14[b]
Seats won 16 4
Seat change Increase 9 Decrease 10
Popular vote 42,327 24,557
Percentage 49.2% 28.6%
Swing Increase 17.9 Decrease 10.9
TPP 58.1% 41.9%
TPP swing Increase 11.1 Decrease 11.1


Chief Minister before election

Eva Lawler
Labor

Elected Chief Minister

Lia Finocchiaro
Country Liberal

The 2024 Northern Territory general election was held on 24 August 2024 to elect all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament.

The election was conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission. Members were elected through full preferential instant-runoff voting in single-member electorates.

For the first time in NT history, both major parties went into the election with female leaders. Additionally, both leaders were from the city of Palmerston; indeed, before her move to the then-new seat of Spillett in 2016, Finocchiaro was the member for Drysdale (the seat Lawler won in 2016 after Finocchiaro transferred to Spillett).

The incumbent centre-left Labor Party (ALP) majority government, led by Eva Lawler since December 2023, sought to win a third consecutive four-year term of government. However, they were defeated by the centre-right Country Liberal Party (CLP) opposition, led by Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro, in a landslide.[2][3]

The election saw the second-worst ever seat total for the Labor Party (second to only the first ever Northern Territory election in 1974, when Labor won no seats), as well as Labor's lowest primary vote in the history of the Northern Territory.

There was a large swing to the CLP across the urban areas of Darwin, Palmerston and Alice Springs, as well as in the surrounding rural areas and in Katherine. The CLP swept the city of Palmerston and won all but one seat each in Darwin and Alice Springs. The swing led to Eva Lawler herself losing her seat of Drysdale to the CLP, becoming the third Chief Minister and the first Labor Chief Minister to do so.[4]

Voter turnout dropped in remote Aboriginal communities.

Background

This was the first election for the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly where both major political parties were led by women, and the third in any Australian state or territory, after the 1995 ACT election and 2020 Queensland election.

Additionally, both leaders were from the city of Palmerston. Before her move to the then-new seat of Spillett in 2016, Finocchiaro was the member for Drysdale, the seat Lawler won in that election.

Previous election

At the 2020 election, the Labor government led by Chief Minister Michael Gunner was re-elected with a reduced majority, winning 14 of the 25 seats in the parliament. The Country Liberals (CLP) won 8 seats, whilst the Territory Alliance party won 1 seat and a further 2 seats were won by independents.

Parliamentary composition

Robyn Lambley, the Territory Alliance's sole representative in the parliament, left the party in October 2020 to sit as an independent.[5] Labor MLA Mark Turner was expelled from the party-room caucus in February 2021 due to what he acknowledged as an "inappropriate relationship" with a Labor Party staffer, though he remained a Labor-designated member in the assembly.[6]

A by-election was held for the seat of Daly on 11 September 2021, caused by the resignation of CLP member Ian Sloan due to health and personal issues. Labor candidate Dheran Young won the seat, the first time that an incumbent government has won a seat from the opposition in the history of the Legislative Assembly.[7]

On 10 May 2022, Chief Minister and Labor leader Michael Gunner announced his immediate resignation from both positions, citing his desire to spend more time with his family following the birth of his and his wife's second son on 29 April.[8] Following a party-room meeting on 13 May, Labor minister Natasha Fyles was elected unopposed to the leadership, and was sworn in as the new Chief Minister later that day.[9] Gunner resigned from the seat of Fannie Bay on 27 July and a by-election was held on 20 August 2022. Labor retained the seat at the by-election, with Labor candidate Brent Potter retaining the seat despite a 7 per cent swing against the party.[10]

On 17 December 2022, Labor MP for Arafura Lawrence Costa died. This triggered a by-election which was held on 18 March 2023. Manuel Brown retained the seat for Labor with a 15.6% swing towards the party on the two-party-preferred result.

In December 2023, it was revealed that Fyles holds 754 undeclared shares in South32, a company that owns a manganese mine on Groote Eylandt. Fyles faced further conflict of interest allegations and calls to resign, due to her decision earlier in 2023 to not investigate health impacts from the Groote Eylandt mine, with Leader of the Opposition Lia Finocchiaro calling her actions a 'profound betrayal of public trust'.[11][12] Due to the controversy, Fyles resigned on 19 December 2023.[12]

Three independents were elected at the 2020 election, the crossbench then increased to 4 when Mark Turner was expelled from the Labor Party.

Redistribution

A map showing the first proposal of redistribution.

A redistribution took place in preparation for the 2024 election, largely due to the rapid population growth of Palmerston, but minor changes were also made to electorates outside the town.

The first redistribution proposal was published on 23 May 2023.[13]

Election date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms, with elections to be held on the fourth Saturday of August every four years.[14]

Pre-election pendulum

Government seats (14)
Marginal
Port Darwin Paul Kirby ALP 1.9
Fong Lim Mark Monaghan ALP 2.2
Arafura Manuel Brown[c] ALP 3.6[d]
Drysdale Eva Lawler ALP 5.4
Fairly safe
Daly Dheran Young[e] ALP 6.1 [f]
Karama Ngaree Ah Kit ALP 8.3
Safe
Fannie Bay Brent Potter[g] ALP 10.9[h]
Arnhem Selena Uibo ALP 15.9[i]
Casuarina Lauren Moss ALP 16.0
Gwoja Chansey Paech ALP 16.2
Johnston Joel Bowden ALP 16.0
Wanguri Nicole Manison ALP 17.3
Sanderson Kate Worden ALP 18.8
Nightcliff Natasha Fyles ALP 24.1
Opposition seats (7)
Marginal
Barkly Steve Edgington CLP 0.1
Namatjira Bill Yan CLP 0.3
Braitling Joshua Burgoyne CLP 1.3
Katherine Jo Hersey CLP 2.5
Brennan Marie-Clare Boothby CLP 3.0
Fairly safe
Nelson Gerard Maley CLP 9.2 v IND
Safe
Spillett Lia Finocchiaro CLP 13.5
Crossbench seats (4)
Araluen Robyn Lambley IND 0.5 v CLP
Blain Mark Turner IND[j] 1.3 (ALP v CLP)
Mulka Yingiya Mark Guyula IND 5.1 v ALP
Goyder Kezia Purick IND 6.8 v CLP

Notes

  • This pre-election pendulum is based on post-redistribution estimates of margins calculated by ABC election analyst Antony Green.[15]
  • Members listed in italics are retiring at the 2024 election.

Registered parties

At the close of nominations for the election, five parties were registered with the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (NTEC).[16]

Candidates and retiring MLAs

Retiring MLAs

The following members announced that they were not contesting the 2024 election:

Labor

Independent

Candidates

Finocchiaro announced the first CLP candidates in May 2023.[20]

Labor confirmed they would not contest the seat of Mulka on 1 August 2024, with Chief Minister Eva Lawler citing her party's "good relationship with and respect for" incumbent MLA Yingiya Mark Guyula.[21]

Nominations closed on 8 August 2024 and the ballot draws were conducted the same day. In total, 80 candidates nominated for election, down from 111 at the previous election.[22]

This is the first election since the 2008 election where the only parties to field candidates were ALP, CLP, and the Greens.

Seat Held by ALP candidate CLP candidate Greens candidate Independent candidates
Arafura ALP Manuel Brown Yanja Thompson
Araluen Independent Gagandeep Sodhi Sean Heenan Hugo Wells Robyn Lambley
Wayne Wright
Arnhem ALP Selena Uibo Ian Mongunu Gumbula
Barkly CLP Lizzie Hogan Steve Edgington
Blain Independent Danielle Eveleigh Matthew Kerle Mark Turner
Braitling CLP Allison Bitar Joshua Burgoyne Asta Hill
Brennan CLP Tony Sievers Marie-Clare Boothby
Casuarina ALP Lauren Moss Khoda Patel Pamela McCalman Martin Jackson
Daly ALP Dheran Young Kris Civitarese
Drysdale ALP Eva Lawler Clinton Howe Cindy Mebbingarri Roberts
Fannie Bay ALP Brent Potter Laurie Zio Suki Dorras-Walker Leonard May
Fong Lim ALP Mark Monaghan Tanzil Rahman Simon Niblock Amye Un
Goyder Independent Sandy Griffin Andrew Mackay Belinda Kolstad
Mathew Salter
Trevor Jenkins
Gwoja ALP Chansey Paech Jarrod Jupurula Williams
Johnston ALP Joel Bowden Gary Strachan Billie Barton Justine Davis
Karama ALP Ngaree Ah Kit Brian O'Gallagher Andy Rowan Justine Glover
Katherine CLP Nick Lovering Jo Hersey Sam Phelan
Mulka Independent Allen Fanning Yingiya Mark Guyula
Namatjira CLP Sheralee Taylor Bill Yan Blair McFarland
Nelson CLP Anthony Venes Gerard Maley Beverley Ratahi
Nightcliff ALP Natasha Fyles Helen Secretary Kat McNamara George Mamouzellos
Mililma May
Port Darwin ALP Brian Manning Robyn Cahill Greg Dickson Janey Davies
Leah Potter
Sanderson ALP Kate Worden Jinson Charls
Spillett CLP Caleb Burke Lia Finocchiaro
Wanguri ALP Shlok Sharma Oly Carlson Andrew Coates Graeme Sawyer

Disendorsed candidates

Party Candidate Seat Disendorsed Reason for disendorsement
Greens Peltherre Chris Tomlins Araluen 8 March 2024 Disendorsed over a Facebook post expressing an anti-semitic conspiracy theory.[23]

Opinion polling

Voting intention

Date Firm Primary vote TPP[k]
ALP CLP IND GRN SFF OTH ALP CLP
2024 election 28.6% 49.2% 14.2% 8.0% 41.9% 58.1%
May 2024 Freshwater Strategy[25] 29% 39% 22% 9% 46% 54%
16–18 November 2023 Redbridge[26] 19.7% 40.6% 14% 13.1% 9.4% 2.4%[l] 43.5% 56.5%
2020 election 39.4% 31.3% 10.7% 4.5% N/A 14.1%[m] 53.3% 46.7%

Campaign issues

The most prominent issue in the campaign was crime, which has dramatically increased in the Territory in recent years.[27] Other issues included cost of living and pet crocodiles.[28]

The Country Liberal Party (CLP) had a policy to lower the age of criminal responsibility from 12 to 10 years old, reversing the Gunner government's 2022 increase.[29][30][31]

Results

Results summary

Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV)[32]
Party Votes % +/- Seats +/-
  Country Liberal 42,377 49.2 Increase 17.9 16 Increase 9
  Labor 24,641 28.6 Decrease 10.9 4 Decrease 7
  Greens 6,848 8.0 Increase 3.6 0
  Independents 12,192 14.2 Increase3.6 3 Decrease 1
 Formal votes
 Informal votes
 Total
 Registered voters / turnout
Two-party-preferred vote
  Country Liberal 58.1 Increase 11.2
  Labor 41.9 Decrease11.2

Seats changing hands

Members in italics did not seek re-election.

Seat Pre-election Swing Post-election
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Blain Independent Mark Turner[n] 1.3 4.5 3.2 v IND Matthew Kerle Country Liberal
Casuarina Labor Lauren Moss 16.0 17.9 1.9 Khoda Patel Country Liberal
Drysdale Labor Eva Lawler 5.4 20.3 14.9 Clinton Howe Country Liberal
Fannie Bay Labor Brent Potter 10.9
Fong Lim Labor Mark Monaghan 2.2 10.4 8.2 Tanzil Rahman Country Liberal
Goyder Independent Kezia Purick 6.8 19.2 12.4 v IND Andrew Mackay Country Liberal
Karama Labor Ngaree Ah Kit 8.3 20.4 12.1 Brian O'Gallagher Country Liberal
Johnston Labor Joel Bowden 16.0 8.5 7.5 v CLP Justine Davis Independent
Port Darwin Labor Paul Kirby 1.9 14.0 12.1 Robyn Cahill Country Liberal
Sanderson Labor Kate Worden 18.8 21.4 2.6 Jinson Charls Country Liberal
Wanguri Labor Nicole Manison 17.3 26.5 9.2 Oly Carlson Country Liberal

Notes

  1. ^ The Country Liberal Party lost the electorate of Daly to Labor at a by-election in 2021.
  2. ^ On 18 February 2021, Mark Turner, the member for Blain, was expelled from the Labor Party caucus but remained a rank-and-file member of the party, although he sits on the crossbench, bringing Labor's seat total to thirteen. However, Labor won the seat of Daly from the Country Liberal Party at the 2021 Daly by-election on 11 September 2021, bringing their seat total back to fourteen. Turner was later expelled from the party completely.[1]
  3. ^ Manuel Brown was elected at the 2023 Arafura by-election after the death of Lawrence Costa
  4. ^ 3.6% was the Labor margin at the 2020 general election. The Labor margin after the 2023 Arafura by-election was 19.1%.
  5. ^ Dheran Young was elected at the 2021 Daly by-election after the resignation of Ian Sloan
  6. ^ The margin after the 2021 Daly by-election was 7.3% for Labor. The by-election margin adjusted for redistribution is 6.1% for Labor. The margin at the 2020 general election was 1.2% for the Country Liberal Party
  7. ^ Brent Potter was elected at the 2022 Fannie Bay by-election after the resignation of former Chief Minister Michael Gunner
  8. ^ 10.9% was the Labor margin at the 2020 general election. The Labor margin after the 2022 Fannie Bay by-election was 2.2%.
  9. ^ The Labor margin in Arnhem at the 2020 general election was 1.4% versus Independent Ian Mongunu Gumbula. Gumbula is running as a CLP candidate in the 2024 general election without the support of Mulka Independent MLA Yingiya Mark Guyula who supported him in 2020, which would make the 2020 two-party preferred result adjusted for redistribution a better measure of the contest.
  10. ^ Mark Turner was expelled from the Labor Party caucus in 2021 and from the party completely in 2023.[1]
  11. ^ The TPP estimates have been manually calculated based on preference flows.[24]
  12. ^ Animal Justice Party 2.4%
  13. ^ Includes the now defunct, Territory Alliance, who were a 12.90% share of this figure.
  14. ^ Mark Turner was elected as a Labor candidate, but was sacked from the party.

References

  1. ^ a b "NT politician Mark Turner expelled from Labor Party". ABC News. 8 June 2023.
  2. ^ https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-25/clp-resounding-victory-nt-election-2024-lia-finocchiaro/104266518 [bare URL]
  3. ^ https://theconversation.com/nt-election-the-country-liberals-claim-a-landslide-victory-in-a-contest-decided-in-suburbia-235648 [bare URL]
  4. ^ https://www.ntnews.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=NTWEB_MRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ntnews.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnt-decides-northern-territory-election-2024-live-rolling-coverage%2Flive-coverage%2F5b63136099df0b10cb82b54853305b84&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium [bare URL]
  5. ^ James, Felicity (21 October 2020). "Territory Alliance party ousts Robyn Lambley, leaving it with no seats in Parliament". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 27 October 2020.
  6. ^ Jane Gibson (18 February 2021). "Blain MLA Mark Turner exiled from NT Labor caucus as staffer resigns over scandal". ABC News.
  7. ^ "Results - 2021 Division of Daly - by-election". Northern Territory Electoral Commission. 24 September 2021. Archived from the original on 27 February 2022. Retrieved 27 February 2022.
  8. ^ "Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner to resign". ABC News. 10 May 2022. Retrieved 10 May 2022.
  9. ^ "Natasha Fyles sworn in as Northern Territory Chief Minister, replacing Michael Gunner". ABC News. 13 May 2022.
  10. ^ "VIDEO: Labor's Brent Potter wins Fannie Bay by-election". ABC News. 22 August 2022.
  11. ^ "NT chief minister Natasha Fyles under pressure to resign over alleged undisclosed shares worth $2,000". The Guardian. Australian Associated Press. 19 December 2023. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  12. ^ a b "Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles resigns amid mounting pressure over leadership". ABC News. 19 December 2023. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  13. ^ "Northern Territory Election Commission". Archived from the original on 10 June 2023. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  14. ^ "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  15. ^ Green, Antony. "Pendulum – NT Votes 2024". ABC Elections. ABC News. Retrieved 14 August 2024.
  16. ^ "Register of political parties in the Northern Territory" (PDF). NT Electoral Commission. 28 March 2024. Retrieved 18 August 2024.
  17. ^ Smith, Camden (28 January 2024). "Territory Labor pre-selection battle looms as candidates stand up". NT News. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
  18. ^ Hislop, Jack (12 January 2024). "Former NT deputy chief minister Nicole Manison will not recontest seat of Wanguri at 2024 election". ABC News. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
  19. ^ Morgan, Thomas (15 February 2024). "NT independent MLA Kezia Purick to retire from politics at next election in August". ABC News. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
  20. ^ Finocchiaro, Lia (10 May 2023). "Budget in Reply".
  21. ^ Walsh, Fia (1 August 2024). "'It's a struggle': Araluen, Mulka and Nelson candidates unconfirmed less than a month from NT election". NT News. Retrieved 6 August 2024.
  22. ^ "List of candidates". Northern Territory Electoral Commission. 8 August 2024.
  23. ^ "NT Greens candidate dumped after Facebook post resurfaces suggesting the government is 'owned' by Zionists". ABC News. 7 March 2024.
  24. ^ "Australian Federal 2pp Estimator".
  25. ^ "NT Labor still significantly trails Country Liberal Party on a two-party preferred basis ahead of August election, new poll reveals". SkyNews. 16 May 2024. Retrieved 16 May 2024.
  26. ^ "Northern Territory Social Services" (PDF). Redbridge Group. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 November 2023. Retrieved 29 November 2023.
  27. ^ Government, Northern Territory (19 August 2019). "Crime statistics". nt.gov.au. Retrieved 24 August 2024.
  28. ^ "NT Australian election: Pet crocodile ban in the spotlight". BBC News. 23 August 2024. Retrieved 24 August 2024.
  29. ^ https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-01/nt-opposition-leader-lia-finocchiaro-stateline-youth-justice/103522952 [bare URL]
  30. ^ https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-09/nt-election-clp-seeking-return-after-two-terms-in-opposition/104185102 [bare URL]
  31. ^ https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-11/nt-2024-election-labor-clp-promises-commitments/104118394 [bare URL]
  32. ^ "2024 Northern Territory Election Results". ABC News.