Old page wikitext, before the edit (old_wikitext) | '{{short description|Negotiations for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=March 2019}}
{{Use British English|date = March 2019}}
{{Infobox treaty
| name = Brexit negotiations (2017–present)
| image = UK location in the EU 2016.svg
| image_width = 250px
| caption = Map of the [[United Kingdom]] within the [[European Union]]
| type = Withdrawal agreement<br/>Transitional agreement<br/>Trade agreement
| date_signed =
| signatures =
| negotiators =
* {{flagicon|EU}} [[Donald Tusk]]<br/>([[President of the European Council|Council President]])
* {{flagicon|EU}} [[Jean-Claude Juncker]]<br/>([[President of the European Commission|Commission President]])
* {{flagicon|EU}} '''[[Michel Barnier]]'''<br/>(Chief Negotiator)
* {{flagicon|GBR}} [[Theresa May]]<br/>([[Prime Minister of the United Kingdom|Prime Minister]])
* {{flagicon|GBR}} '''[[Olly Robbins]]'''{{refn|group=lower-alpha|name=Prime Minister's Europe Advisor|Olly Robbins was appointed as the Prime Minister's Europe Advisor on 18 September 2017. He was previously the [[Department for Exiting the European Union|Brexit Department]]'s first Permanent Secretary.}}<br/>([[Prime Minister's Office (United Kingdom)|Prime Minister's Europe Adviser]] and Chief Negotiator)<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44941792|title=Theresa May takes personal charge of Brexit talks|date=24 July 2018|website=[[BBC News]]}}</ref>
* {{flagicon|GBR}} until 15 November 2018, [[Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union|Brexit Secretary]]{{refn|group=lower-alpha|name=Former Brexit Secretaries|Incumbents during the negotiations were [[David Davis (British politician)|David Davis]] (July '16 to July '18) and [[Dominic Raab]] (July '18 to November '18).}}
|parties = * {{flag|European Union}}
* {{flag|United Kingdom}}
| condition_effective = [[Ratification]] by the Council of the European Union, the [[European Parliament]], and the [[Parliament of the United Kingdom]].
| footnotes = {{reflist|group=lower-alpha}}
| wikisource = Draft Agreement on the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union
}}
{{United Kingdom in the European Union}}
{{multiple image
| total_width = 250
| image1 = Olly Robbins.jpg |width1=1554 |caption1={{flagicon|UK}} [[Olly Robbins]]
| alt1 =
| image2 = Barnier, Michel-9568.jpg |width2=2088 |height2=3137 |caption2={{flagicon|EU}} [[Michel Barnier]]
| alt2 =
| footer = Lead negotiators for the UK and EU
}}
Negotiations are taking place between the [[United Kingdom]] and the [[European Union]] for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, known as [[Brexit]], following the [[United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016|United Kingdom European Union membership referendum]] on 23 June 2016.
The negotiating period began on 29 March 2017, when the United Kingdom [[United Kingdom invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union|served the withdrawal notice under Article 50]] of the [[Treaty on European Union]]; under the two-year deadline prescribed by [[Withdrawal Agreement|Article 50]], the period was to end on 29 March 2019.
On 19 June 2017, then-British [[Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union|Brexit Secretary]] [[David Davis (British politician)|David Davis]] arrived in Brussels to begin talks with [[Michel Barnier]], the Chief Negotiator appointed by the [[European Commission]].<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/19/boris-johnson-and-gove-both-back-may-as-tory-leadership-speculation-continues-politics-live |title=UK appears to capitulate on sequencing on first day of Brexit talks – as it happened |first=Andrew |last=Sparrow |date=19 June 2017|newspaper=The Guardian |accessdate=23 June 2017}}</ref> Negotiations on the [[Brexit withdrawal agreement|withdrawal agreement]] (which includes a transitional period and an outline of the objectives for a future relationship between the UK and the EU) were concluded in November 2018, with the European Union indicating that no further negotiation or changes before the UK legally leaves will be possible. If the withdrawal agreement is ratified by the UK and other EU state governments and comes into force, more negotiations might be needed to address [[EU free trade agreements|Free Trade Agreement treaties]] between the European Union and its members (including the UK) for one part and third countries for the other part, and the [[tariff-rate quota]], which might be split or renegotiated.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.ceps.eu/publications/impact-brexit-eu%E2%80%99s-international-agreements |title=The Impact of Brexit on the EU's International Agreements |date=15 July 2016 |website=Centre for European Policy Studies |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |url=https://www.cigionline.org/publications/brexit-and-international-trade-one-year-after-referendum |title=Brexit and International Trade: One Year after the Referendum |first=Valerie |last=Hughes |date=26 September 2017 |journal=Centre for International Governance Innovation |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref>
In March and April 2019, [[Prime Minister of the United Kingdom]] [[Theresa May]] and [[European Union]] leaders negotiated a delay, moving the deadline from 29 March to 31 October 2019.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47663031|title=Brexit pushed back by at least two weeks|date=22 March 2019|access-date=22 March 2019}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47889404|title=Brexit: UK and EU agree delay to 31 October|date=11 April 2019|access-date=11 April 2019}}</ref> On 27 March 2019, Theresa May vowed to resign as Prime Minister if her Brexit agreement passes through Parliament.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47725529|title=Brexit: Theresa May has stated her intention to stand down if the deal is passed|last=|first=|date=27 March 2019|work=BBC News|access-date=27 March 2019}}</ref>
== Background ==
{{Brexit sidebar}}
=== 2015 United Kingdom general election ===
In the [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservative Party]]'s manifesto for the [[2015 United Kingdom general election|United Kingdom general election in May 2015]], an EU referendum was promised by the end of 2017.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32302062|title=At-a-glance: Conservative manifesto|date=15 April 2015|accessdate=22 September 2018|website=Bbc.co.uk}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/14/conservatives-election-manifesto-2015-the-key-points|title=Conservatives election manifesto 2015 - the key points|first=Frances|last=Perraudin|date=14 April 2015|website=the Guardian|accessdate=22 September 2018}}</ref>
The [[2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum|referendum]], held on 23 June 2016, resulted in a 51.9% majority vote for Leaving the European Union.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results|title=EU referendum results|date=24 June 2016|accessdate=5 March 2019|website=BBC.co.uk}}</ref>
== Preparatory work, and intentions ==
According to the European parliament, "For the moment, it appears that the two sides have different views on the sequencing and scope of the negotiations, and notably the cross-over between the withdrawal agreement and the structure of future relations, and this divergence itself may be one of the first major challenges to overcome."<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2017/599352/EPRS_IDA%282017%29599352_EN.pdf |title=UK withdrawal from the European Union |website=European Parliament |date=March 2017}}</ref>
=== UK negotiation ===
* [[Theresa May]], [[Prime Minister of the United Kingdom]]
* [[Oliver Robbins]], Europe advisor to the Prime Minister
* [[David Davis (British politician)|David Davis]], [[Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union]] until 8 July 2018.
* [[Dominic Raab]], Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union from 9 July 2018 until 15 November 2018.
* [[Stephen Barclay]], Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union from 16 November 2018.
* Sir [[Tim Barrow]], [[List of Permanent Representatives of the United Kingdom to the European Union|UK Permanent Representative to the EU]]
The [[Department for Exiting the European Union]] is responsible for overseeing the negotiations to leave the EU and for establishing the future relationship between the UK and EU.
The United Kingdom's proposed principles were set out in the Article 50 notification:
* Constructive discussions
* Citizens first
* Comprehensive agreement
* Minimise disruption
* Ireland/Northern Ireland position
* Technical talks on detailed policy
* Work together on European values<ref>{{cite news |url= https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/29/article-50-brexit-letter-read-full/ |title= Article 50 letter: Read it in full |newspaper=[[The Daily Telegraph]]|date=30 March 2017}}</ref>
The Prime Minister's formal letter of notification was delivered in Brussels on 29 March 2017.<ref name="notificationletter">{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/604079/Prime_Ministers_letter_to_European_Council_President_Donald_Tusk.pdf |title=Prime Minister's letter to Donald Tusk triggering Article 50 |date=19 March 2017 |website=UK Government |access-date=1 April 2017}}</ref> It included withdrawal from the [[European Atomic Energy Community]]. The letter recognised that consequences for the UK of leaving the EU included loss of influence over the rules that affect the European economy, and UK companies trading within the EU aligning with rules agreed by institutions of which the UK would no longer be part. It proposed agreeing to seven principles for the conduct of the withdrawal negotiation. These are for:
# engaging with one another constructively and respectfully, in a spirit of sincere cooperation.
# aiming to strike an early agreement about the rights of the many EU citizens living in the United Kingdom, and UK citizens living elsewhere in the European Union.
# working towards securing a comprehensive agreement, taking in both economic and security cooperation, and agreeing the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the EU.
# working together to minimise disruption and giving as much certainty as possible, letting people and businesses in the UK and the EU benefit from implementation periods to adjust in an orderly way to new arrangements.
# in particular, paying attention to the UK's unique relationship with the Republic of Ireland and the importance of the peace process in Northern Ireland.
# beginning technical talks on detailed policy areas as soon as possible, including a Free Trade Agreement covering sectors crucial to our linked economies such as financial services and network industries.
# continuing to work together to advance and protect our shared liberal, democratic values of Europe, to ensure that Europe remains able to lead in the world, projecting its values and defending itself from security threats.
==== Role of the countries of the United Kingdom ====
{{Further|Countries of the United Kingdom}}
The constitutional lawyer and retired German Supreme Court judge [[Udo Di Fabio]] has stated his opinion that separate negotiations with the EU institutions by Scotland or Northern Ireland would constitute a violation of the Lisbon Treaty, according to which the integrity of a member country is explicitly put under protection.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/brexit/zukunft-der-europaeischen-union-kopf-hoch-14327446.html |title=Future of the European Union – Chin up! |last=Di Fabio |first=Udo |date=7 July 2016|newspaper=[[Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung]] |accessdate=29 October 2016}}</ref>
==== UK general election ====
The start of negotiations was delayed until after the [[United Kingdom general election, 2017|United Kingdom general election]], which took place on 8 June 2017.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39643804 |title=General election 2017: MPs back plans for 8 June poll |website=BBC News |date=19 April 2017}}</ref> [[Antonio Tajani]], speaking on 20 April said that the early election should bring stability to the UK, which would have been good for negotiations.<ref name="Sky204">{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/general-election-is-good-for-brexit-negotiations-says-european-parliament-president-10844115 |title=General Election is good for Brexit negotiations, says European Parliament President |website=Sky News |date=20 April 2017}}</ref> In the event, the election led to a [[hung parliament]] which has reduced the Prime Minister's room for manoeuvre; in particular in respect of the [[Irish border question]] due to her dependency on a [[confidence and supply]] agreement with Northern Ireland's [[Democratic Unionist Party]].
=== EU27 negotiation ===
{{See also|European Union negotiating directives for Brexit}}
* [[Michel Barnier]], Chief negotiator
* [[Guy Verhofstadt]], representative of the [[European Parliament]] in the negotiations
* [[Donald Tusk]], [[President of the European Council]]
* [[Antonio Tajani]], [[President of the European Parliament]]
* [[Jean-Claude Juncker]], [[President of the European Commission]]
Following the United Kingdom's notification under Article 50, draft guidelines for the negotiations were sent to EU delegations of the 27 other member states (the EU27). The draft, prepared by the [[President of the European Council]], states that the guidelines define the framework for negotiations under Article 50 and set out the overall positions and principles that the Union will pursue throughout the negotiation. It states that in the negotiations the Union's overall objective will be to preserve its interests, those of its member states, its citizens and its businesses, and that, in the best interest of both sides, the Union will be constructive throughout and strive to find an agreement. The draft sets out two core principles:
# The European Council will continue to base itself on the principles set out in the statement of Heads of State or Government and of the Presidents of the European Council and the European Commission on 29 June 2016. It reiterates its wish to have the United Kingdom as a close partner in the future. It further reiterates that any agreement with the United Kingdom will have to be based on a balance of rights and obligations, and ensure a level-playing field. Preserving the integrity of the [[European Single Market]] excludes participation based on a sector-by-sector approach. A non-member of the Union, that does not live up to the same obligations as a member, cannot have the same rights and enjoy the same benefits as a member. In this context, the European Council welcomes the recognition by the British Government that the four freedoms of the Single Market are indivisible and that there can be no "cherry picking".
# Negotiations under Article 50 TEU ([[Treaty on European Union]]) will be conducted as a single package. In accordance with the principle that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, individual items cannot be settled separately. The Union will approach the negotiations with unified positions, and will engage with the United Kingdom exclusively through the channels set out in these guidelines and in the negotiating directives. So as not to undercut the position of the Union, there will be no separate negotiations between individual member states and the United Kingdom on matters pertaining to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the Union."<ref>{{cite news |newspaper=The Daily Telegraph |title=In full: The EU's draft guidelines for Brexit negotiations |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/31/full-eus-draft-guidelines-brexit-negotiations/ |date=31 March 2017 |accessdate=8 April 2018 }}</ref>
According to the European Parliament, the withdrawal agreement and any possible transitional arrangement(s) should enter into force "well before the elections to the European Parliament of May 2019", and the negotiations should focus on:<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/resources/library/media/20170329RES69090/20170329RES69090.pdf |title=European Parliament resolution on negotiations with the United Kingdom following its notification that it intends to withdraw from the European Union |website=European Parliament |date=29 March 2017}}</ref>
* The legal status of European Union citizens living or having lived in the United Kingdom and of United Kingdom citizens living or having lived in other member states, as well as other provisions concerning their rights;
* The settlement of financial obligations between the United Kingdom and the European Union;
* The European Union's external border;
* The clarification of the status of the United Kingdom's international commitments taken as a Member of the European Union, given that the European Union of 27 member states will be the legal successor of the European Union of 28 member states;
* Legal certainty for legal entities, including companies;
* The designation of the Court of Justice of the European Union as the competent authority for the interpretation and enforcement of the withdrawal agreement.
On 18 April 2017, a spokesman for [[Donald Tusk]] said "We expect to have the Brexit guidelines adopted by the European Council on 29 April and, following that, the Brexit negotiating directives ready on 22 May".<ref>{{Cite news |url=http://news.sky.com/story/election-call-likened-to-hitchcock-film-by-eus-donald-tusk-10842357 |title=Election call likened to Hitchcock film by EU's Donald Tusk |last=Minelle |first=Bethany |date=18 April 2017 |website=Sky News |access-date=19 April 2017}}</ref> On 29 April, the EU27 unanimously endorsed the draft guidelines with no debate.<ref name="Sky294">{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/eu-leaders-unanimously-agree-brexit-strategy-10855627 |title=EU leaders unanimously agree Brexit strategy |website=Sky News |date=29 April 2017}}</ref>
In a speech to a plenary session of the European Committee of the Regions in Brussels on 22 March 2017, Barnier, as EU Chief Negotiator for the Preparation and Conduct of the Negotiations, said that the EU wanted to succeed by reaching a deal with the British, not against them.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-723_en.htm |title=Speech by Michel Barnier, Chief Negotiator for the Preparation and Conduct of the Negotiations with the United Kingdom, at the plenary session of the European Committee of the Regions |date=22 March 2017 |website=[[European Commission]] |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref>
On 22 May the European Council, following the approval of [[European Union negotiating directives for Brexit|the negotiating directives]] that the EU27 had adopted by strong [[qualified majority voting]],{{efn|at least 72% of the 27 member states (that is, 20 member states), together representing at least 65% of the population of the EU27}} authorised the Commission to open Article 50 discussions with UK, with Michel Barnier appointed as the negotiator. It further confirmed that all agendas, EU position papers, Non-papers and EU text proposals would be released to the public and published on line.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1405_en.htm |title=European Commission receives mandate to begin negotiations with the UK |website=European Commission |date=22 May 2017}}</ref>
=== Intergovernmental organisation ===
[[Intergovernmental organisation]]s also involved in Brexit uncertainty considerations include the [[World Trade Organization]] (WTO) and the [[International Air Transport Association]] (IATA). IATA expects an agreement to avoid disruption.<ref>{{cite magazine |url=http://www.air-cosmos.com/brexit-iata-veut-une-solution-rapide-104095 |title=Brexit : IATA veut une solution rapide |first=Jean-Baptiste |last=Heguy |date=5 December 2017 |magazine=[[Air & Cosmos]] |language=fr |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
=== Phases ===
EU27 guidelines include:
* Agreement on the so-called "[[EU divorce bill|divorce bill]]";
* Agreement on rights of EU citizens living in the UK;
* Agreement on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic
within the withdrawal phase.<ref name="Sky294" />
The second phase, covering the post-Brexit relationship between the EU27 and the UK, was to begin "as soon as the European Council decides that sufficient progress has been made in the first phase towards reaching a satisfactory agreement on the arrangements for an orderly withdrawal".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29-euco-brexit-guidelines/ |title=European Council (Art. 50) guidelines for Brexit negotiations |date=29 April 2017 |website=European Council |access-date=9 September 2017}}</ref> The earliest opportunity for this decision was 19 October 2017, at a summit of EU leaders.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-30/brexit-watchers-your-guide-to-key-dates-in-coming-negotiations |title=Your Guide to Key Dates in the Brexit Negotiations |last=Chrysoloras |first=Nikos |date=30 March 2017 |website=Bloomberg.com|access-date=9 September 2017}}</ref> although at that meeting it was agreed to start negotiations during the December meeting.<ref name="auto2">{{cite web |url=http://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/23512/20-euco-conclusions-art50.pdf |title=Council Conclusions |date=20 October 2017 |website=European Council |access-date=8 December 2017}}</ref>
== Negotiation policy ==
{{Quote box
|quote ="We recognise how important it is to provide business, the public sector and the public with as much certainty as possible. So ahead of, and throughout the negotiations, we will provide certainty wherever we can. We will provide as much information as we can without undermining the national interest."
|source = {{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/589191/The_United_Kingdoms_exit_from_and_partnership_with_the_EU_Web.pdf |title=The United Kingdom's exit from and new partnership with the European Union |date=February 2017 |website=UK Government |page=9}}
|align = left
|width = 20%
}}
Some effects of the UK withdrawal could emerge before the UK and the EU27 conclude the Article 50 negotiation, as a result of policies existing when the negotiation begins, or some change of policy later. At the outset policy provisions binding on the EU include principles, aspirations and objectives set out in the TEU ([[Treaty on European Union]]) Preamble<ref>{{cite web |url=https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Consolidated_version_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union/Preamble |title=Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union|at=Peramble|via=Wikisource}}</ref> and Articles,<ref>{{cite web |url=https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Consolidated_version_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union/Title_I:_Common_Provisions |title=Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union|at=Title I: Common Provisions|via=Wikisource}}</ref> of which
:''Article 3'' mentions the promotion of "scientific and technological advance" in a context governed by "The Union's aim is to promote peace, its values and the well-being of its peoples", the Union's [[European Single Market|internal market]], "work for the [[sustainable development]] of Europe based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive [[social market economy]], aiming at full employment and social progress", and the requirement that "The Union shall pursue its objectives by appropriate means commensurate with the competences which are conferred upon it in the Treaties",
and
:''Article 4'' mentions "competences not conferred upon the Union in the Treaties remain with the Member States".
Policies mentioned in the Preamble include:
* Achieve the strengthening and convergence of member states' economies and establish an economic and monetary union including a single and stable currency,
* Promote economic and social progress for their peoples, taking into account the principle of sustainable development and within the context of the accomplishment of the internal market and of reinforced cohesion and environmental protection, and implement policies ensuring that advances in economic integration are accompanied by parallel progress in other fields,
* Establish a citizenship common to nationals of their countries,
* Implement a common foreign and security policy including the progressive framing of a common defence policy, thereby reinforcing the European identity and its independence in order to promote peace, security and progress in Europe and in the world,
* Facilitate the [[Freedom of movement for workers in the European Union|free movement of persons]], while ensuring the safety and security of their peoples, by establishing an area of freedom, security and justice.
* Continue the process of creating an ever-closer union among the peoples of Europe, in which decisions are taken as closely as possible to the citizen in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity.
UK policy was stated in a [[white paper]] published in February 2017: ''The United Kingdom's exit from and new partnership with the European Union''.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/589191/The_United_Kingdoms_exit_from_and_partnership_with_the_EU_Web.pdf |title=The United Kingdom's exit from and new partnership with the European Union |date=February 2017 |website=UK Government}}</ref> In the white paper, UK negotiating policy was set out as twelve guiding principles:
:# Providing certainty and clarity, including a "Great Repeal Bill" to remove the European Communities Act 1972 from the [[statute book]] and convert existing EU law into domestic law.
:# Taking control of the UK statute book and ending the jurisdiction of the [[Court of Justice of the European Union]] in the UK.
:# Strengthening the Union of all parts of the Kingdom, and remaining fully committed to the [[Good Friday Agreement|Belfast Agreement]] and its successors.
:# Working to deliver a practical solution that allows for the maintenance of the [[Common Travel Area]] whilst protecting the integrity of the UK immigration system, and which protects the strong ties with Ireland.
:# Controlling the number of EU nationals coming to the UK.
:# Securing the status of EU citizens who are already living in the UK, and that of UK nationals in other member states.
:# Protecting and enhancing existing workers' rights.
:# Forging a new partnership with the EU, including a wide reaching free trade agreement, and seeking a mutually beneficial new customs agreement with the EU.
:# Forging free trade relationships across the world.
:# Remaining at the vanguard of science and innovation and seeking continued close collaboration with the UK's European partners.
:# Continuing to work with the EU to preserve European security, to fight terrorism, and to uphold justice across Europe.
:# Seeking a phased process of implementation, in which both the UK and the EU institutions and the remaining EU member states prepare for the new arrangements.
=== Pre-negotiation events ===
On 28 June 2016, five days after the referendum, Chancellor of Germany [[Angela Merkel]] announced to the German parliament the forthcoming EU negotiation position: the UK could only remain in the [[European Single Market]] (ESM) if the UK accepted EU migrants. There would be no [[cherry picking]] of the ESM's four conditions (free movement of goods, capital, services and labour). While she expected the UK to remain an important NATO partner, the EU's priority was unity and self-preservation. She warned the UK not to delude itself.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article156631505/Mit-Merkel-wird-es-kein-Rosinenpicken-fuer-die-Briten-geben.html |title=Brexit-Bundestagsdebatte: Mit Merkel wird es kein Rosinenpicken für die Briten geben |trans-title=Brexit parliamentary debate: With Merkel there will be no cherrypicking for the British |newspaper=[[Die Welt]] |language=de |date=28 June 2016 |accessdate=14 May 2017}}</ref> The next day, Tusk confirmed that the UK would not be allowed access to the ESM unless they accepted its four freedoms of movement for goods, capital, services, and people.<ref>{{cite news |last=Heffer |first=Greg |date=29 June 2016 |title='It's not single market à la carte' Donald Tusk tells UK it's Free Movement or Nothing |url=http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/684528/Brexit-Donald-Tusk-Britain-free-movement-access-EU-single-market-David-Cameron |newspaper=Daily Express |access-date=1 July 2016}}</ref>
In contrast, at her October 2016 party conference, Prime Minister Theresa May emphasised that ending the jurisdiction of EU law and free movement from Europe were priorities. She wished "to give British companies the maximum freedom to trade with and operate in the Single Market – and let European businesses do the same here", but not at the expense of losing sovereignty.<ref>{{cite news |date=2 October 2016 |title=Theresa May – her full Brexit speech to Conservative conference |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-conference-speech-article-50-brexit-eu-a7341926.html |newspaper=The Independent |access-date=14 May 2017}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Mason |first=Rowena |date=5 October 2016 |title=Theresa May's Conservative party conference speech – key points analysed |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/05/mays-conservative-party-conference-speech-key-points-analysed |newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=14 May 2017}}</ref>
In November 2016, May proposed that Britain and the other EU countries mutually guarantee the residency rights of the 3.3 million EU immigrants in Britain and those of the 1.2 million British citizens living on the Continent, in order to exclude their fates being bargained during Brexit negotiations.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/22/british-expats-set-granted-right-carry-living-eu-theresa-mays |title=British expats set to be granted right to carry on living in EU with Theresa May 'close to reciprocal rights deal' |last=Hope |first=Christopher |date=23 November 2016|newspaper=The Daily Telegraph |accessdate=18 January 2017}}</ref> Despite initial approval from a majority of EU states, May's proposal was blocked by European Council President Tusk and German Chancellor Merkel.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/donald-tusk-accuses-british-voters-backed-brexit-creating-anxiety/ |title=Angela Merkel says 'nein' to Theresa May's calls for early deal on rights of EU migrants and British ex-pats |last=Swinford |first=Steven |date=29 November 2016|newspaper=The Daily Telegraph |accessdate=18 January 2017}}</ref>
In January 2017, the Prime Minister presented 12 negotiating objectives and confirmed that the UK government would not seek permanent [[British membership of the European Economic Area|single market membership]].<ref name="Painstaking" /> The European Parliament's lead negotiator [[Guy Verhofstadt]] responded that there could be no "cherry picking" by the UK in the talks.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38641208 |title=Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May |last=Kuenssberg |first=Laura |date=17 January 2017 |website=BBC News |access-date=14 May 2017}}</ref>
The statutory period for negotiation began on 29 March 2017, when the letter notifying withdrawal, signed by the British Prime Minister, was handed to the president of the European Council. The letter called for a "deep and special relationship" between the UK and the EU, and warned that failure to reach an agreement would result in EU-UK trade under World Trade Organisation terms, and a weakening of the UK's cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism. The letter suggested prioritising an early deal on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and vice versa. In the letter, the Prime Minister reasoned that, as the EU leaders did not wish "cherry picking" of the ESM, the UK would not seek to remain within the ESM. Instead, the UK would seek a free trade agreement with the EU.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39431070 |date=29 March 2017 |website=BBC News |title=Brexit: The UK's letter triggering Article 50|access-date=15 May 2017}}</ref> In response, Merkel insisted that the EU would not discuss future cooperation without first settling the terms of the divorce, Verhofstadt referred to the letter as "blackmail" with regard to the point on security and terrorism, and EU Commission president [[Jean-Claude Juncker]] warned that the UK's decision to quit the block was a "choice they will regret one day".<ref>{{cite news |last=Asthana |first=Anushka |date=30 March 2017 |title=Don't blackmail us over security, EU warns May |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/29/brexit-eu-condemns-mays-blackmail-over-security-cooperation |newspaper=The Guardian |access-date=15 May 2017}}</ref>
A meeting at [[10 Downing Street]] took place on 6 April 2017 between [[Theresa May]] and [[Donald Tusk]] to discuss "the way ahead on Brexit".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/pm-to-meet-donald-tusk-to-for-brexit-discussions-at-number-10-10827086 |title=PM to meet Donald Tusk for Brexit discussions at Number 10 |website=Sky News |date=6 April 2017}}</ref> Another meeting took place in London on 20 April 2017, this time between Theresa May and [[Antonio Tajani]] to discuss the rights of EU citizens.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.politico.eu/article/antonio-tajani-meet-theresa-may-in-london-parliament-president/ |title=Antonio Tajani to meet Theresa May in London |website=Politico.eu |date=13 April 2017}}</ref> After 20 April meeting, Antonio Tajani said that the UK and EU27 timetables fitted well together, with a two-year exit deal negotiation followed by a three-year transition phase.<ref name=Sky204/> A 10 Downing Street meeting between Theresa May, [[Michel Barnier]] and [[Jean-Claude Juncker]] took place on 26 April to discuss the withdrawal process. May reiterated the UK's aim for a "deep and special partnership" after Brexit.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39722903 |title=Brexit: Theresa May meets EU's chief negotiator for talks |website=BBC News |date=27 April 2017}}</ref>
On 29 April 2017, immediately after the first round of French presidential elections, the EU27 heads of state unanimously accepted, without discussion,<ref>{{cite news |last=Boffey |first=Daniel |date=29 April 2017 |title=EU leaders agree on tough stance at special Brexit summit |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/eu-leaders-set-to-take-tough-stance-in-special-brexit-summit |newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=14 May 2017}}</ref> negotiating guidelines prepared by the [[President of the European Council]].<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29-euco-brexit-guidelines/ |last= |first= |date=29 April 2017 |website=Council of the European Union |title=European Council (Art. 50) guidelines for Brexit negotiations |access-date=14 April 2017}}</ref> The guidelines take the view that Article 50 permits a two-phased negotiation, whereby the UK first needs to agree to a financial commitment and to lifelong benefits for EU citizens in Britain, before the EU27 will entertain negotiations on a future relationship.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/eu-brexit-guidelines-document-really-means/ |title=EU Brexit guidelines: What's in the document, and what it really means |last=Foster |first=Peter |date=29 April 2017|newspaper=The Daily Telegraph |access-date=14 May 2017}}</ref> In the requested first phase of the withdrawal negotiation, the EU27 negotiators demanded the UK pay a "[[Brexit divorce bill|divorce bill]]", initially estimated as amounting up to £52bn and then, after additional financial demands from Germany, France, and Poland, amounting to £92bn.<ref>{{cite web |last=Worstall |first=Tim |date=3 May 2017 |title=It Is To Laugh At Their Mistake – EU's Brexit Bill Claim Now At €100 Billion |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/05/03/it-is-to-laugh-at-their-mistake-eus-brexit-bill-claim-now-at-e100-billion/2/#61adde837b74 |website=Forbes |access-date=15 May 2017}}</ref>
Nevertheless, a 4 March 2017 report of the [[European Union Committee]] of the House of Lords, stated that if there is no post-Brexit deal at the end of the two-year negotiating period, the UK could withdraw without payment.<ref name="bbc.co.uk">{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39154218 |title=Brexit: UK 'not obliged' to pay divorce bill say peers |date=4 March 2017 |website=BBC News |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> Similarly, the Prime Minister insisted to EU Commission President Juncker that talks about the future UK-EU relationship should start early and that Britain did not owe any money to the EU under the current treaties.<ref name="auto1">{{cite news |last=Roberts |first=Dan |date=1 May 2017 |title=May dismisses reports of frosty dinner with EU chief as 'Brussels gossip' |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/01/jean-claude-juncker-to-theresa-may-on-brexit-im-10-times-more-sceptical-than-i-was-before |newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=15 May 2017}}</ref>
At 29 April summit, a meeting took place between Michel Barnier and both houses of the Irish parliament on 11 May, where Barnier assured members of [[Dáil Éireann]] and [[Seanad Éireann]] that Europe would "work with you to avoid a hard border".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://news.sky.com/story/eu-chief-tells-ireland-he-will-work-to-avoid-hard-border-post-brexit-10872491|title=Barnier tells Ireland he'll work to avoid hard border post-Brexit|date=11 May 2017|website=Sky News}}</ref> Barnier went on to say that "the Irish border issue would be one of his three priorities in the negotiations", and that "there is always an answer".<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39889292|title=Brexit Irish border answer can be found – EU's Barnier|date=12 May 2017|website=BBC News|access-date=13 May 2017}}</ref>
In May 2017, unflattering details of a four-way meeting between Prime Minister Theresa May, Brexit Minister David Davis, EU Commission President Juncker and his chief-of-staff [[Martin Selmayr]] were leaked to the German newspaper ''Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung'', presumably by Martin Selmayr.<ref name="auto4">{{cite news |last=Bush |first=Stephen |date=2 May 2017 |title=Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker's dinner leaked because no-one thinks Brexit will work |url=http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/05/theresa-may-and-jean-claude-junckers-dinner-leaked-because-no-one-thinks |newspaper=New Statesman |access-date=15 May 2017}}</ref> According to the leaked description, Juncker claimed that Theresa May was "living in another galaxy" when suggesting that British and EU migrant rights could be rapidly negotiated and agreed in the course of June 2017. German Chancellor Angela Merkel concurred the next day by stating that there were "illusions" on the British side.<ref name="auto1" /> A few days later, Juncker disclaimed responsibility and called the leak a mistake, ''Der Spiegel'' magazine reported that Angela Merkel was annoyed with Juncker for the leak, while European Council President Tusk admonished participants to use discretion during the negotiations.<ref>{{cite web |title=Juncker's jibes continue after Tusk calls for calm |quote=In order to succeed we need discretion, moderation and a maximum of goodwill. |last=Stone |first=Mark |url=http://news.sky.com/story/tusk-warns-over-brexit-emotions-as-juncker-takes-another-swipe-10864632 |website=Sky News |date=6 May 2017 |accessdate=15 May 2017}}</ref> The background for German nervousness allegedly is the possibility that Britain may veto EU budget increases, which for example in the immediate term amount to 4 billion euros. A continued British veto would have far-reaching consequences and "will hurt us" according to German MEP Jens Geier.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/angela-merkel-veraergert-ueber-jean-claude-juncker-nach-brexit-dinner-a-1146299.html |title= Treffen mit May: Merkel verärgert über Juncker nach Brexit-Dinner |trans-title= Meeting with May: Merkel annoyed with Juncker after Brexit dinner |newspaper=[[Der Spiegel]] |language=de |date=6 May 2017 |accessdate=15 May 2017}}</ref>
On 22 May 2017, the Council of the EU authorised its negotiators to start the Brexit talks and it adopted its negotiating directives.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/05/22-brexit-negotiating-directives/ |title=Council (Art 50) authorises the start of Brexit talks and adopts negotiating directives |website=European Council}}</ref> The first day of talks took place on 19 June, where Davis and Barnier agreed to prioritise the question of residency rights, while Davis conceded that a discussion of the Northern Irish border would have to await future trade agreements.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/19/uk-caves-in-to-eu-demand-to-agree-divorce-bill-before-trade-talks |title=Brexit: UK caves in to EU demand to agree divorce bill before trade talks |date=19 June 2017 |newspaper=The Guardian |access-date=20 June 2017}}</ref>
== Negotiation for withdrawal agreement ==
===2017===
{{main|Brexit negotiations in 2017}}
Brexit negotiations began on 29 March 2017 when the United Kingdom served the withdrawal notice under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. This started a two-year negotiation period.
===2018===
{{main|Brexit negotiations in 2018}}
The UK government published several proposals during 2018, including the [[Chequers plan]] which sought to serve as the basis of the UK-EU trade deal. Negotiations over the [[Irish border question]] and the [[Irish backstop]] were frequently central to the debate around the withdrawal agreement.
===2019===
{{main|Brexit negotiations in 2019}}
Upon the approaching end of the two-year negotiation period, in March 2019, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Theresa May and European leaders negotiated a delay for the Parliament of the United Kingdom to approve the proposed withdrawal treaty, moving the end of the negotiating period to 12 April 2019. In the evening of 10 April May agreed to the EU proposal to extend the period to 31 October 2019, with an option to terminate UK membership earlier if the withdrawal agreement passes the UK Parliament. Under this extension, the UK must take part in European elections (scheduled for May 2019) or leave on 1 June without a withdrawal agreement.
== Financial settlement ==
{{main|Brexit divorce bill}}
Two different legal approaches arose in determining the financial element of the [[Brexit withdrawal agreement]] and (at least initially) the UK and EU negotiators differed on which would be the more appropriate.<ref name=independent220917>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-divorce-bill-payment-michel-barnier-david-davis-backtracking-brussels-a7934296.html |title=Britain is 'backtracking' on its Brexit divorce bill commitments, EU's chief negotiator warns |date=7 September 2017|newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=22 September 2017}}</ref> From Michel Barnier's point of view, the budget contributions that were agreed by 28 member states have to be paid by 28 member states, until the end of that budget period.<ref name="independent220917" /> David Davis said that the "UK wants to go through the Brexit bill line-by-line to work out what it owes the EU."<ref name=independent220917 /> A leaving state is legally obliged to contribute to the EU budget beyond its membership period or to continue to honour the commitments it made during the (pre-Brexit) budget setting process.<ref name=independent220917 />
The leaders of France and Germany both stated that the UK would need to agree to terms regarding departure before discussing future relationships.<ref>{{cite news |url= http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4359418/PM-gathers-Cabinet-ahead-Article-50-triggered.html |title=Security threats, insults and a £50billion divorce bill: Merkel and Hollande warn of painful Brexit as they reject Britain's call for early trade talks – while PM threatens to cut intelligence ties if we get a bad deal as she triggers Article 50 |newspaper=Daily Mail |date=29 March 2017}}</ref> This has been reinforced by EU27 guidelines issued to the remaining 27 countries.<ref name="Sky313">{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/european-union-to-reveal-its-brexit-negotiating-approach-10818836 |title=Brexit EU guidelines: UK told settle divorce bill before talking trade deals |website=Sky News |date=31 March 2017}}</ref> The UK has signalled that it may consider paying the EU to attain preferential access to the [[European Single Market]] and may offer to pay liabilities on a moral and co-operative basis, even if not legally obliged to do so, to secure a preferential working relationship with the EU.<ref>{{cite news |title=David Davis suggests UK could pay for single market access |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/01/brexit-secretary-suggests-uk-would-consider-paying-for-single-market-access |newspaper=The Guardian |date=1 December 2016 |accessdate=2 April 2017}}</ref>
In March 2017 the [[Bruegel (institution)|Bruegel think tank]] estimated that the UK would need to pay at least €25.4 billion, but the method of calculation is debatable and their calculations using seven different methods produced estimates between €30 and €45 billion.<ref name="IT303">{{cite news |url=http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/uk-s-brexit-bill-likely-to-be-well-under-60bn-says-think-tank-1.3030853 |title= UK's Brexit bill likely to be well under €60bn, says think tank |newspaper=The Irish Times |date=30 March 2017}}</ref>
Speaking on 20 April 2017, Antonio Tajani said that it was too early to quantify the amount the UK would need to pay and that it was not a bill to leave the EU, it was money needed for farmers and small businesses.<ref name=Sky204/>
=== House of Lords report ===
{{Quote box
|quote ="27. It may seem intuitive that when the UK leaves the EU, it leaves behind both the responsibilities and benefits of membership. However, this does not take account of the complexity of the UK's participation in the EU, nor of the procedures for agreeing current and future budgets, which involve mutual commitments projected many years into the future. ...33. The range of values in circulation for the UK's potential 'exit bill' indicates that the absolute sum of any posited settlement is hugely speculative. Almost every element is subject to interpretation."
|source =HL Paper 125, 4 March 2017, European Union Committee 15th sessional report, ''Brexit and the EU budget '', Chapter 3, ''Potential demands''.[https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/12506.htm#_idTextAnchor024]
|align = right
|width = 20%
}}
A March 2017 House of Lords report acknowledges that the EU may claim for (1) part of the current budget (which runs from 2014 to 2020) post March 2019, because it was approved by the UK (2) part of the EU future commitments which amount to €200 billion and (3) a contribution if the UK is to continue with access to some EU programmes.<ref name="HoL317">{{cite journal |url=http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7886 |title=The UK's contribution to the EU budget |website=House of Lords |date=16 March 2017|last1=Keep |first1=Matthew }}</ref> The report concluded that the UK had no legal obligation to make "exit" payments to the EU if there was no post Brexit deal.<ref>{{cite web |title=Brexit and the EU Budget |url=https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/125.pdf |website=House of Lords |date=4 March 2017 |accessdate=2 April 2017}}</ref><ref name="bbc.co.uk"/>
Discussing financial and legal complexities involved in negotiating withdrawal, including settlement of outstanding financial liabilities and division of assets, the report mentions (paragraph 15) that the EU budget is funded by revenue drawn from various sources, governed by the EU's Own Resources Decision (ORD), which was made part of UK law by the [[European Union (Finance) Act 2015]].<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/32/pdfs/ukpgaen_20150032_en.pdf |title=European Union (Finance) Act 2015, Explanatory Notes |website=UK Government}}</ref> The revenue includes contributions from import duties and [[VAT]] collected by member states. The report also mentions the EU [[Multiannual Financial Framework]] for controlling the annual expenditure.
=== Assets and liabilities ===
The EU has considerable assets including buildings, equipment and financial instruments, and there is a potential claim by the UK for a portion of these assets.<ref name=IT303/> [[Boris Johnson]], the UK's [[Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs|Foreign Secretary]], commenting on the Brexit "divorce bill" in May 2017 stated that the valuable EU assets the UK has paid for over the years should be properly valued, and that there were good arguments for including them in the negotiations.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-says-brussels-should-pay-preposterous-brexit-bill-10875068 |title=Boris Johnson says Brussels should [not] pay 'preposterous' Brexit bill |date=13 May 2017 |website=Sky News|access-date=13 May 2017}}</ref>
The [[Bank of England]] (BoE) has invested in the [[European Central Bank]] (ECB) amounting to 14.3374%, representing paid up capital of €55.5 million. The BoE does not participate in any profits (or losses) of the ECB.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/orga/capital/html/index.en.html |title=Capital subscription |website=European Central Bank |date=1 January 2019}}</ref> The BoE has also made loans to the ECB. The ECB set up the [[European Financial Stability Facility]] in 2010, which has a borrowing facility of €440bn and in addition used a guarantee from the [[European Commission]] and the [[Budget of the European Union]] as collateral to borrow a further €60bn. The UK withdrawal will affect the ECB.
The EU has a pension liability of €64 billion (which includes current and former British MEPs as well as current and former employees of the Institutions).<ref name=HoL317/>
The UK benefits from a [[UK rebate|rebate]] which reduces its contribution to the [[EU budget]]. The rebate is paid a year in arrears, accordingly the 2019 rebate would be payable in 2020.<ref name=HoL317/>
=== Position paper ===
The EU drafted an 11-page position paper setting out the essential principles for a financial settlement and the methodology for calculating the obligation but does not estimate the final obligation.<ref name="Painstaking">{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/30/painstaking-detail-brexit-process-revealed-eu-documents |title=Painstaking detail of Brexit process revealed in EU documents |first=Jennifer |last=Rankin |date=30 May 2017|newspaper=The Guardian |accessdate=23 June 2017}}</ref>
On 11 December 2017, Theresa May confirmed that the UK and the EU had agreed “the scope of commitments, and methods for valuations and adjustments to those values.”<ref>{{cite web|url=https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-divorce-bill/|title=The EU "divorce bill"|date=15 November 2018|accessdate=23 March 2019}}</ref>
The UK Government's estimate of the financial settlement in March 2019 is £37.8 billion (€41.8 billion).<ref>{{cite web|title=Economic and Fiscal Outlook|publisher=[[Office for Budget Responsibility]]|url=https://cdn.obr.uk/March-2019_EFO_Web-Accessible.pdf|page=111|date=March 2019|accessdate=24 March 2019}}</ref>
== UK citizens elsewhere in the EU and other EU citizens in the UK ==
Concerns have been raised by UK citizens who live in other EU countries, and by citizens from those countries who live in the UK. In May 2017, [[Michel Barnier]] stated: "Currently around 3.2 million EU citizens work and live in the UK, and 1.2 million British citizens work and live in the EU."<ref>{{cite web |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-1236_en.htm |title=Press release – Speech by Michel Barnier at the 7th State of the Union Conference, European University Institute, Florence |last= |first= |date=5 May 2017 |website=European Commission|access-date=7 May 2017}}</ref>
Issues include rights of movement, citizenship, abode, education, social support and medical treatment, and the payment of pensions; and the extent to which these rights apply to family members.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/may-expected-to-challenge-right-of-eu-citizens-to-bring-family-to-britain-non-european-spouses-brexit |title=May expected to challenge right of EU citizens to bring family to Britain |last=Travis |first=Alan |date=3 May 2017|newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=4 May 2017|last2=Roberts |first2=Dan|issn=0261-3077}}</ref> Considerations for UK citizens resident in an EU27 country include their rights to work or live in a different EU27 country.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/joint-technical-note-on-the-comparison-of-eu-uk-positions-on-citizens-rights |title=Joint technical note on the comparison of EU-UK positions on citizens' rights |website=Department for Exiting the European Union |date=20 July 2017 |access-date=21 July 2017}}</ref> Beyond the 27 EU countries, workers have certain [[Freedom of movement for workers in the European Union|freedom of movement]] rights to/from Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland.
"Associate citizenship", suggested by EU27 negotiator Guy Verhofstadt, would allow UK nationals to volunteer individually for EU citizenship, enabling them to continue to work and live on the continent. Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, is not opposed to the idea.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Brexit/EU-president-not-opposed-to-associate-citizenship-plan |title=EU president 'not opposed' to associate citizenship plan |website=Connexion France |date=31 March 2017}}</ref>
Antonio Tajani spoke after a meeting with Theresa May on 20 April 2017, saying "the issue of reciprocal EU citizen rights should be negotiated 'immediately' with a view to getting an agreement by the end of the year."<ref name=Sky204/> The European Commission published a position paper on "Essential Principles on Citizens' Rights" on 12 June 2017, proposing that current and future family members of European nationals in the UK would keep their rights to settle in their residence country at any time after Britain's withdrawal.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/position-paper-essential-principles-citizens-rights_en |title=Position paper transmitted to the UK: essential principles on citizens' rights |last= |first= |date=12 June 2017 |website=European Commission|access-date=22 June 2017}}</ref> Speaking in advance of publication of the paper, David Davis described the demands as "ridiculously high".<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-negotiations-latest-david-davis-eu-demands-citizens-rights-ridiculously-high-european-union-a7762986.html |title=David Davis says EU demands on citizens' rights are 'ridiculously high' |last=Bulman |first=May |date=30 May 2017 |newspaper=The Independent|access-date=22 June 2017 }}</ref> The UK government published their policy paper "Safeguarding the position of EU citizens in the UK and UK nationals in the EU" on 26 June.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/safeguarding-the-position-of-eu-citizens-in-the-uk-and-uk-nationals-in-the-eu |title=Safeguarding the position of EU citizens in the UK and UK nationals in the EU |last= |first= |date=26 June 2017 |website=UK Government |access-date=26 June 2017}}</ref> The policy paper proposed that EU citizens living in Britain will be required to apply for inclusion on a "settled status" register if they wish to remain in the country after Brexit.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/26/eu-citizens-living-in-uk-must-apply-for-special-id-card-after-brexit |title=Brexit: EU citizens living in UK will have to join special ID register |last=Travis |first=Alan |date=26 June 2017 |newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=27 June 2017|issn=0261-3077}}</ref>
By the end of September 2017 progress had been made on several of the 60 points which became green, while 13 out of the 60 points remain red. Three points (points #14, #15, and #16 related to monitoring and CJEU) have to be addressed at governance level. Few points remain to be clarified (that is yellow).<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/table_-_citizens_rights.pdf |title=Comparison of EU/UK Positions on Citizens' Rights |date=28 September 2017 |website=European Commission |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> On this basis European parliament will have to assess if sufficient progress has been made.
As of October 2018, UK residents in the EU have not yet had their fates decided on. On 16 October 2018, just before departing for the EU27–UK summit in Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking to the German parliament, asked "How do we treat the 100,000 British citizens in Germany on the day after Brexit if there is no deal?", without supplying an answer.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/merkel-regierungserklaerung-zum-brexit-1.4174193 |title=Merkels vier Minuten für den Brexit [Merkel's four minutes for Brexit] |last=Al-Serori |first=Leila |date=17 October 2018 |newspaper=Sueddeutsche Zeitung |access-date=17 October 2018|language=de|issn=}}</ref>
=== Implications ===
The general rule for losing EU citizenship is that European citizenship is lost if member state nationality is lost,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.ilecproject.eu/sites/default/files/GUIDELINES%20INVOLUNTARY%20LOSS%20OF%20EUROPEAN%20CITIZENSHIP%20.pdf |title=Guidelines: Involuntary Loss of European Citizenship |date=2015 |website=European Union |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> but the automatic loss of EU citizenship as a result of a member state withdrawing from the EU is the subject of debate.<ref name="ir.lawnet.fordham.edu">{{cite journal |url=http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2324&context=ilj |title=The Withdrawal Clause of the Lisbon Treaty in the Light of EU Citizenship (Between Disintegration and Integration) |last=Rieder |first=Clemens M. |journal=Fordham International Law Journal |volume=37 |issue=1 |date=2013 |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> The situation of a person acquiring EU citizenship when the UK joined the EU in 1973 compared to a person born in the UK after 1973 and was therefore born into EU citizenship, may differ. It may be necessary for the ECJ to rule on these issues.
In a 2017 decision, the ECJ ruled that the parent(s) of a child with EU nationality are entitled to rights of residence, even if both are non-EU citizens.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/8212/non-european-parents-of-european-child-have-eu-right-of-residency |title=Non-European parents of European child have EU right of residency |newspaper=Brussels Times |date=11 May 2017 }}{{Dead link|date=March 2019 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref> This may have consequential effects for UK residents who have young children and wish to live in the EU27 territory post Brexit, but this remains to be tested.
=== Immigration and mobility ===
Until the UK effectively withdraws from the EU in 2019 or at another agreed date, the current system of free movement of labour between the EU27 and the UK remains in place.
The report of the House of Commons [[Exiting the European Union Select Committee|Exiting the European Union Committee]] on ''The Government's negotiating objectives'', published in April 2017,<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmexeu/1125/112502.htm |title=3rd Report – The Government's negotiating objectives: the White Paper (HC 1125) |date=4 April 2017 |website=House of Commons |access-date=4 April 2017}}</ref> proposed (paragraphs 20 and 123) that the future system for EU migration should meet the needs of different sectors of the UK economy, including those employing scientists, bankers, vets, care workers, health service professionals and seasonal agriculture workers.
[[Theresa May]], answering press questions on 5 April 2017, commented that the free movement of labour would not end in March 2019; an implementation period of possibly five years would give business and government time to adjust.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4381026/Don-t-expect-EU-free-movement-end-five-years.html |title=Don't expect EU free movement to end for at least five years, May warns: PM says there will be an 'implementation period' after Britain leaves |newspaper=Daily Mail |date=5 April 2017}}</ref>
The UK currently charges an annual levy of up to £1,000 for each non-EU citizen employed within the UK.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/uk-visa-sponsorship-employers/immigration-skills-charge |title=UK visa sponsorship for employers: Immigration skills charge |date= |website=UK Government |access-date=22 May 2017}}</ref> Proposals are under consideration to increase this 'immigration skills charge' to £2,000 p.a. and to implement a similar levy on EU citizens employed in the UK.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/18/news/economy/foreign-worker-charge-theresa-may/index.html |title=Americans are going to find it much harder to get a job in Britain |website=CNN |date=18 May 2017}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-uk-employers-pay-1000-per-eu-skilled-worker-european-immigration-skills-levy-a7521626.html |title=UK employers would have to pay a £1,000-a-year fee per EU skilled worker after Brexit under new government plans |newspaper=The Independent |date=11 January 2017}}</ref>
According to an unconfirmed newspaper report, a leaked Home Office paper has a proposal that the UK will end the free movement of labour of low-skilled workers immediately after Brexit, focusing on highly skilled EU workers instead.<ref name=":0">{{Cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/sep/05/leaked-document-reveals-uk-brexit-plan-to-deter-eu-immigrants |title=Leaked document reveals UK Brexit plan to deter EU immigrants |last=Hopkins |first=Nick |date=5 September 2017|newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=6 September 2017 |last2=Travis |first2=Alan|issn=0261-3077}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-eu-migrants-brexit-plans-to-cut-back-on-post-brexit-report/ |title=UK plans to cut back on EU migrants post Brexit: report |date=5 September 2017 |website=Politico.eu |access-date=6 September 2017}}</ref> The proposal would limit lower-skilled EU migrants' residency permits to a maximum of two years, and the implementation of a new immigration system ending the right to settle in Britain for most European migrants while placing tough restrictions on their rights to bring over family members.<ref name=":0" /> Those in "high-skilled occupations" could be given permission to work in the UK for a period of three to five years.<ref name=":0" />
== Migration ==
Immigration is one topic requiring partnership between EU and UK, as according to Theresa May, "Mass migration and terrorism are but two examples of the challenges to our shared European interests and values that we can only solve in partnership".<ref name="Spectator9-17">{{cite magazine |url=https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/09/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full-text/ |title=Theresa May's Florence speech on Brexit, full text |date=22 September 2017 |magazine=[[The Spectator]] |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
In the context of Brexit, the question of migration might contain two subtopics: on one hand migrations between EU including UK and third countries which might be dealt with at a local level; and on the other hand migration between EU and UK once UK has become a third country which was discussed for the withdrawal agreement.
== European Court of Justice (ECJ) ==
The concept of [[European Court of Justice]] competence creates complications. Some pro-Brexiteers believe the Court of Justice might be completely removed from the UK landscape. Various other opinions consider that the Court of Justice or some equivalent should be able to rule on remaining issues after Brexit (for instance between a European and a British stakeholder), at least in respect of the TEU ([[Treaty on European Union]]), [[Citizenship of the European Union|European Union citizens]], or access to the [[European Single Market]].<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-ministers-invincible-ignorance-european-court-sir-david-edward-theresa-may-a7656826.html |title='Invincible ignorance' of Theresa May's Brexit-backing ministers condemned by former judge |date=29 March 2017|newspaper=The Independent}}</ref>
After the 2017 negotiations, in February 2018 the European Commission Draft Withdrawal Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement.pdf |title=European Commission Draft Withdrawal Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community |date=28 February 2018 |website=European Commission |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> consider for instance that:
* "The Court of Justice of the European Union shall continue to have jurisdiction for any proceedings brought before it by the United Kingdom or against the United Kingdom before the end of the transition period. That jurisdiction shall extend to all stages of proceedings, including appeal proceedings before the Court of Justice and proceedings before the General Court after a case has been referred back to it."
* "The Court of Justice of the European Union shall continue to have jurisdiction to give preliminary rulings on requests from courts and tribunals of the United Kingdom referred to it before the end of the transition period."
== Sectoral issues ==
Documents setting out how the Brexit will affect parts of the [[British economy]] were set up for the government, "the most comprehensive picture of our economy on this issue" containing "excruciating detail" according to Brexit Secretary David Davis.<!--<ref name=Bloomberg21dec2017>--> The ministers were reluctant to [[publish]] them but in November 2017, a vote in Parliament allowed lawmakers to read them under controlled conditions to avoid [[news leak]]s.<!--<ref name=Bloomberg21dec2017>--> They were released online on 21 December 2017 but lawmakers were unimpressed: "Most of this could be found on [[Wikipedia]] or with a quick [[Google search]]", said Labour's [[David Lammy]], "these documents [were made] in a couple of weeks. They look like copy and paste essay crises."<ref name=Bloomberg21dec2017>{{cite web |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-20/may-heads-to-poland-to-seek-brexit-ally-after-firing-her-deputy |title=May Lands in Poland to Seek Brexit Ally After Firing Deputy |first=Robert |last=Hutton |date=21 December 2017 |website=Bloomberg}}</ref>
=== Trade ===
Without a trade agreement in place, UK trade with the EU would be governed by the World Trade Organisation's [[Bali Package]]. This would lead to common tariffs and [[non-tariff barriers to trade|non-tariff barriers]] being imposed by the EU27 upon the UK's access to the [[European Single Market]], because the Market is also a [[customs union]]. However, the UK would then have an opportunity to control immigration as well as develop its own trade regulations.
The UK is not permitted to hold trade talks until after Brexit is concluded, however the UK can do preparatory work with other countries regarding the UK's future trading relationships; this is not to the liking of some EU27 countries.<ref name=POL114/> Before Britain leaves the EU, they may put trade agreements in place with non-EU countries.<ref>{{cite report |title=Brexit, Ireland and Northern Ireland |publisher=Constitutional Conundrums |date=2016}}</ref>
Only the EU can act in areas where it has exclusive competence, such as the customs union and common commercial policy. In those areas member states may not act independently.<ref name="gov.uk">{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/279629/bis-13-865-balance-of-competences-review-trade-and-investment.pdf |title=Review Of The Balance Of Competences Between The United Kingdom And The European Union |date=May 2013 |website=[[Department for Business, Innovation and Skills]] |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> The UK can still negotiate its own bilateral investment protection treaties subject to Commission authorisation.<ref name="gov.uk"/>
Strategic controls on military goods are primarily a member state competence. As a result, member states themselves negotiate multilateral or bilateral agreements on the strategic aspects of trade in defense goods.<ref name="gov.uk"/>
The EU27 wish to exclude the UK from sitting in on trade negotiations held by the EU during the period ending March 2019, seeing the UK as a competitor. Theresa May rejected this idea, saying "While we're members of the European Union we would expect our obligations but also our rights to be honoured in full."<ref name="POL114">{{cite web |url=http://www.politico.eu/article/trade-talks-for-non-british-eyes-only/ |title=Trade talks: For non-British eyes only? |website=Politico.eu |date=10 April 2017}}</ref>
==== Regional foods ====
{{See also|List of United Kingdom food and drink products with protected status}}
The [[Geographical indications and traditional specialities in the European Union|Geographical indications and traditional specialties in the European Union]], known as protected designation of origin (PDO) is applied internationally via bilateral agreements. Without an agreement with the EU27, UK producers of products such as the [[Cornish Pasty|Cornish pasty]], [[Scotch whisky]] and [[Jersey Royals|Jersey Royal]] potatoes are at risk of being copied.
==== Fisheries ====
The EU27 have stated that UK fish suppliers could lose tariff-free access to the continent unless EU countries have continued access to UK waters after Brexit.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.ft.com/content/958c7e28-0f1c-11e7-b030-768954394623 |title=EU fishing fleet urges post-Brexit access to UK seas |newspaper=Financial Times |date=22 March 2017|url-access=subscription}}</ref>
==== Agriculture ====
The Irish agricultural sector is heavily dependent on UK markets for its exports.
=== Financial services ===
==== Banks ====
Investment banks may want to have new or expanded offices up and running inside the EU27 bloc before the UK's departure in March 2019, with [[Frankfurt]] and [[Dublin]] the possible favourites.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-21/what-the-biggest-banks-are-planning-as-may-sets-brexit-timing |title=What the biggest banks are planning once Brexit starts |website=Bloomberg |date=21 March 2017}}</ref> Ireland's investment arm, IDA Ireland, witnessed an increase in inquiries from London-based financial groups considering to open up on an office in Dublin by the end of 2016, mostly coming from North American companies. In May 2017, JP Morgan became the first major bank to officially choose Dublin to transfer some of its personnel and operations from its London office.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.the-businessreport.com/article/can-dublin-become-eus-next-finance-hub/ |title=Can Dublin become the EU's next finance hub? |website=The Business Report |date=January 2017 |accessdate=14 July 2017}}</ref>
==== Insurance ====
[[Lloyd's of London]] have confirmed that they will open a subsidiary in Brussels, hoping to ensure continuation of their continental business which generates 11% of its premiums.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39441035 |title=Insurer Lloyd's of London confirms new Brussels subsidiary |website=BBC News |date=30 March 2017}}</ref>
==== Asset management companies ====
The situation may be different when it comes to the [[fund management]] industry, as British asset owners, notably UK [[pension fund]]s, often constitute an incommensurate share of total turnover for German, French, Dutch and other [[Continental European]] asset managers.
This imbalance could potentially give Britain some negotiating leverage e.g. power of [[retorsion]] in case the EU attempts to impose an abrupt cancellation of the mutually-binding obligations and advantages pertaining to the [[Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004]] (''"fund passporting"''). Research conducted by the [[World Pensions & Investments Forum|World Pensions Council (WPC)]] shows that {{quote|"Assets owned by UK pension funds are more than 11 times bigger than those of all German and French pension funds put together […] If need be, at the first hint of threat to the City of London, Her Majesty's Government should be in a position to respond very forcefully."<ref>{{cite journal |title= Beyond Brexit: Britain, Europe and the Pension Wealth of Nations |url=https://www.academia.edu/26810948 |journal=Pensions Age |date=July 2016 |page=44 |accessdate=11 July 2016|last1=Firzli |first1=M. Nicolas J. }}</ref>}}
==== Stock exchanges ====
The [[London Stock Exchange]] issued a warning over a proposal by the EU to allow euro-denominated transactions to be cleared only within the EU [[eurozone]], claiming it would increase business costs by €100bn over 5 years and isolate the euro capital market.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/warning-to-brussels-over-stripping-city-of-euro-clearing-10888828 |title=Warning to Brussels over stripping City of euro clearing |website=Sky News |date=22 May 2017}}</ref>
=== Security ===
The letter of 29 March 2017 giving the UK's [[United Kingdom invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union|notice of intention to withdraw]] from the EU stated "In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened."<ref name="notificationletter" /> This was seen by some as a threat.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/29/brexit-eu-condemns-mays-blackmail-over-security-cooperation |title=Don't blackmail us over security, EU warns May |last= |first= |date=30 March 2017|newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=1 April 2017}}</ref> On 31 March, [[Boris Johnson]], the UK Foreign Secretary, confirmed that the "UK commitment to EU security is unconditional".<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/30/uk-article-50-letter-european-diplomats-threat-security-cooperation |title=Boris Johnson joins UK attempts to calm Brexit security concerns |last= |first= |date=31 March 2017|newspaper=The Guardian |access-date=1 April 2017}}</ref>
The call by the United States to other members of [[NATO]] to increase their defence expenditure to the 2% of GDP level coincides in timing with Brexit. The UK is the second largest contributor to NATO defence, one of only five to meet the 2% level and one of only two EU members who have nuclear weapons. The possibility of a new Franco-German partnership to fill the vacuum left by Britain has been raised as a possibility and post Brexit an EU military headquarters, previously vetoed by the UK, may be created.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.france24.com/en/20170403-france-eu-nato-boost-military-defense-spending-brexit-us-warnings-isolationism |title=EU, French militaries prepare to go it alone after Brexit, US warnings |website=France24 |date=3 April 2017}}</ref> The UK is fully committed to NATO.
=== Academic research ===
{{Main|Brexit and arrangements for science and technology}}
The UK government's negotiating policy when the negotiating period started on 29 March 2017 included remaining at the vanguard of science and innovation, and seeking continued close collaboration with the UK's European partners.
== British Overseas Territories and Crown dependencies ==
In the [[Great Repeal Bill 2016|Great Repeal Bill]] [[white paper]] published on 30 March 2017, the UK government stated "The Government is committed to engaging with the Crown Dependencies, Gibraltar and the other Overseas Territories as we leave the EU."<ref name="GRBWP">{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/604514/Great_repeal_bill_white_paper_print.pdf |title=Legislating for the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union |website=Department for Exiting the European Union |date=30 March 2017}}</ref>{{rp|ch.5}}
=== Overseas territories ===
[[Robin Walker]] [[Member of Parliament|MP]], a junior minister at the Department for Exiting the European Union, is responsible for managing the relationship between the overseas territories and Parliament in their discussion with the EU27.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.ft.com/content/225fe8b6-ed59-11e6-930f-061b01e23655?mhq5j=e1 |title=British overseas territories set out their Brexit priorities |newspaper=Financial Times |accessdate=23 June 2017|url-access=subscription}}</ref>
==== Gibraltar ====
{{Main|Gibraltar after Brexit}}
Brexit raised issues around [[sovereignty]] for [[Gibraltar#Governance|Gibraltar]], the only [[British Overseas Territories|British Overseas Territory]] in the EU.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu |title=Spain drops plan to impose veto if Scotland tries to join EU |first=Jennifer |last=Rankin |date=2 April 2017|newspaper=The Guardian}}</ref> Gibraltarians voted to stay in the European Union by 96%.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/01/world/europe/gibraltar-brexit-spain-britain-european-union.html |title=Spain's Desire for Gibraltar Complicates 'Brexit' Talks With E.U. |first=Stephen |last=Castle |date=1 April 2017|newspaper=The New York Times}}</ref> Spain claims sovereignty over Gibraltar; however, in 2002 [[Gibraltar sovereignty referendum, 2002|Gibraltarians voted 99% to keep British sovereignty]].
The EU27 draft guidelines allow Spain a veto over any effect that the Brexit agreement has as regards Gibraltar. The guidelines state: "After the United Kingdom leaves the Union, no agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without the agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom."<ref>{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-guidelines-eu-hands-spain-power-over-gibraltars-future-10819502 |title= Brexit guidelines: EU hands Spain power over Gibraltar's future |website=Sky News |date=31 March 2017}}</ref>
=== Crown dependencies ===
The [[Crown dependencies]] are not part of either the UK or the EU. They have a unique constitutional relationship both with the UK and, as encapsulated in Protocol 3 to the UK's [[Treaty of Accession 1972|Treaty of Accession]], with the EU.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/136/136.pdf |title=Brexit: the Crown Dependencies |website=House of Lords |date=23 March 2017}}</ref> They have no voting rights in EU or UK referenda or elections and no international voice, the UK government having the responsibility to act for the dependencies on foreign matters. [[Oliver Heald]] [[Queen's Counsel|QC]] [[Member of Parliament|MP]] is responsible for managing the relationship between the Islands and Parliament in their discussion with the EU27.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://guernseypress.com/news/2017/04/08/protecting-finance-and-legal-sectors-a-priority-for-minister/ |title=Protecting finance and legal sectors a priority for minister |newspaper=Guernsey Press |date=8 April 2017}}</ref>
== The "no deal" scenario ==
The [[European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018]] which became law in June 2018 allows for various outcomes including no negotiated settlement. It authorises the government to bring into force, by [[Statutory instrument (UK)|order]] made under section 25, the provisions that fix "exit day" and the repeal of the European Communities Act 1972, but exit day must be the same day and time as when the EU Treaties are to cease to apply to the UK.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit/negotiations/what-is-exit-day-dispelling-misconceptions-about-the-extension-of-article-50/ |title=''What is “exit day”?'' House of Commons Library, 19 March 2019 |publisher=Commonslibrary.parliament.uk |date=2019-03-19 |accessdate=2019-03-26}}</ref>
If no withdrawal agreement is in place at the end of the period set under Article 50, in such a "no deal" scenario, there will be no transition period and EU law (in particular, the Single Market and Customs Union) will cease to apply to the UK/EU relationship.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/priorities/20160701TST34439/20160707STO36103/brexit-negotiations-deciding-new-eu-uk-relations |title=Brexit negotiations: deciding new EU-UK relations |date=7 July 2016 |website=European Parliament |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref><ref name="ReferenceA">{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44887513 |title=Reality Check: The EU's 'no deal' preparations |first=Chris |last=Morris |date=19 July 2018 |website=BBC News}}</ref>
The EU would prefer a Brexit with a deal.<ref name="ReferenceA" /> Nonetheless, even without a deal, the Commission believes that UK and EU may soon relaunch trade negotiations.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-negotiation-no-deal-european-commission-publishes-briefing-planning/ |title=European Commission publishes briefing on no-deal Brexit planning |date=19 July 2018 |website=Politico.eu}}</ref>
On 28 February 2019, Parliament approved by 502 votes Labour former minister Yvette Cooper's bid to pin Theresa May to commitments including allowing MPs to delay Brexit if her deal is rejected again.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://metro.co.uk/2019/02/27/jeremy-corbyns-brexit-vision-defeated-majority-83-8772804/ |title=Jeremy Corbyn's Brexit vision defeated again by majority of 83 | Metro News |publisher=Metro.co.uk |date=27 February 2019 |accessdate=12 March 2019}}</ref>
On 4 April 2019, the European Parliament voted to confirm UK citizens will continue to benefit from visa-free travel to member states after a no-deal Brexit. MEPs voted 502 votes to 81 in favour of the concession – provided EU nationals enjoy the same conditions when travelling to the UK.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-visa-free-travel-no-deal-vote-eu-parliament-passport-a8854371.html |title=BREXIT: EU PARLIAMENT VOTES TO GIVE UK CITIZENS VISA-FREE TRAVEL IN EVENT OF NO-DEAL |website="The Independent" |accessdate=4 April 2019}}</ref>
=== "No deal": possibility and likelihood ===
In June 2017, a Parliamentary inquiry concluded that "the possibility of 'no deal' is real enough to justify planning for it. The Government has produced no evidence, either to this inquiry or in its White Paper, to indicate that it is giving the possibility of 'no deal' the level of consideration that it deserves, or is contemplating any serious contingency planning. This is all the more urgent if the Government is serious in its assertion that it will walk away from a 'bad' deal."<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmfaff/1077/107702.htm |title=House of Commons - Article 50 negotiations: Implications of 'no deal' - Foreign Affairs Committee |website=UK Parliament |accessdate=23 June 2017}}</ref>
The UK government has consistently said that it will aim for the "best possible deal" but that "no deal is better than a bad deal". This position was restated in the Conservative Party manifesto for the 2017 general election.<ref>''Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2017''. 18 May 2017. pp35-36. "The negotiations will undoubtedly be tough, and there will be give and take on both sides, but we continue to believe that no deal is better than a bad deal for the UK. But we will enter the negotiations in a spirit of sincere cooperation and committed to getting the best deal for Britain."</ref> In July 2017, Michel Barnier said that "a fair deal is better than no deal", because "In the case of Brexit, 'no deal' is a return to a distant past".<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/06/frictionless-trade-impossible-if-uk-leaves-eu-single-market-says-barnier |title=Frictionless trade impossible if UK leaves EU single market, says Barnier |last=Rankin |first=Jennifer |date=6 July 2017|newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=7 July 2017|issn=0261-3077}}</ref>
French Prime Minister [[Édouard Philippe]] said in July 2018: "The more we think the worst should be avoided, the more we think it's not impossible it could eventually happen".<ref name="nytimes.com">{{cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/19/business/europe-brexit-contingencies.html |title=How E.U. Is Getting Ready for Chaos in a Worst-Case Brexit|newspaper=The New York Times |date=19 July 2018}}</ref> That same month, the British (UK) white paper began both sides wondering if the ''no deal scenario'' is more likely rather than possible.<ref name="theguardian.com">{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/eu-assault-on-mays-white-paper-heightens-no-deal-brexit-fears |title=EU assault on May's white paper heightens 'no deal' Brexit fears |first=Daniel |last=Boffey |date=18 July 2018|newspaper=The Guardian}}</ref>
=== "No deal": adverse consequences ===
In June 2017, a "no-deal" Brexit was likened by [[General Council of the Bar]], a lawyers' interest body, to "falling over the cliff-edge".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.barcouncil.org.uk/media-centre/publications/2017/2017/march/the-brexit-papers-second-edition/ |title=The Brexit Papers: Second Edition |website=General Council of the Bar |accessdate=23 June 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170614163952/http://www.barcouncil.org.uk/media-centre/publications/2017/2017/march/the-brexit-papers-second-edition |archive-date=14 June 2017 |dead-url=yes |df=dmy-all }}</ref> According to the IMF, the no deal Brexit could create economic pain across Europe, with no winner.<ref name="no-deal-brexit-imf">{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-would-harm-all-european-countries-warns-imf |title=No-deal Brexit would harm EU countries as well as UK, warns IMF |first=Richard |last=Partington |date=19 July 2018|newspaper=The Guardian}}</ref> The most affected country would be UK, according to the IMF:<ref name="no-deal-brexit-imf" /> the IMF consider that UK and Ireland could lose 4% of their GDP, while close countries such as the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium could lose 1% of GDP.<ref name="no-deal-brexit-imf" />
In September 2017, the BBC reported that there was little evidence of UK government preparations for a "No Deal" scenario: "our government is not behaving like it is really preparing for No Deal – and the EU27 can surely see it."<ref>{{cite web |last1=Cook |first1=Chris |title=Will the government really accept 'No Deal' with the EU? |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41271028 |website=BBC News |date=19 September 2017 |accessdate=21 September 2017}}</ref>
In her 4 October 2017 speech at the Conservative Party Conference, UK Prime Minister Theresa May repeated her position that "no deal is better than a bad deal" and emphasized that "It is our responsibility as a government to prepare for every eventuality. And let me reassure everyone in this hall – that is exactly what we are doing."<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-speech-conference-no-deal-assurance-tories-a7983071.html |title=Theresa May tried to 'reassure' Tories that she is still prepared to leave EU with no Brexit deal |date=4 October 2017|newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref> In her 9 October 2017 statement in the House of Commons, May said that Britain could operate as an "independent trading nation" after Brexit if no trade deal is reached with the EU.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41546701 |title=UK explores 'no deal' Brexit |date=9 October 2017 |website=BBC News |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
The ''no deal'' scenario has been described by [[Nick Timothy]] as leaving the EU [with Britain] in "chaos" or not leaving the bloc at all, which he says would be a "national humiliation" on a par with the [[Suez Crisis]].<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/european-commission-issues-call-for-eu-states-to-get-ready-for-nodeal-brexit-37135023.html |title=European Commission issues call for EU states to get ready for no-deal Brexit |newspaper=Belfast Telegraph}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/european-commission-issues-call-for-eu-states-to-get-ready-for-no-deal-brexit-856373.html |title=European Commission issues call for EU states to get ready for no-deal Brexit |date=19 July 2018|newspaper=Irish Examiner}}</ref>
[[Martin Donnelly (civil servant)|Sir Martin Donnelly]] feels that no deal would be dangerous:<ref name="independent.co.uk1">{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-sir-martin-donnelly-eu-theresa-may-government-economy-single-market-bad-deal-a8000186.html |title=Britain's former top civil servant just warned of the dangers of a 'no deal' Brexit |date=14 October 2017|newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref> while no deal makes trade only dependent on World Trade Organisation terms which do not include services—80% of the British economy—he believes that no deal "could mean an awful lot of legal uncertainty and that's very bad for businesses, for jobs, for investment in Britain".<ref name="independent.co.uk1"/>
In the [[Scottish Centre on European Relations]] paper "Brexit Uncertainty, Scotland and the UK in 2018", a conclusion is reached that the delivery of a no deal Brexit could raise support for a second independence referendum in Scotland.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-scottish-independence-eu-expert-kirsty-hughes-a8000871.html |title=Hard Brexit could trigger new independence referendum, says Scotland's leading EU expert |date=14 October 2017 |newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
Nonetheless, according to Shadow Chancellor [[John McDonnell]] there are enough people in the House of Commons to prevent some no-agreement exit.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-theresa-may-john-mcdonnell-labour-latest-eu-stop-commons-a8001306.html |title=Cross-party alliance 'will stop Theresa May crashing Britain out of the EU with no deal' |date=15 October 2017|newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
According to Dominic Cummings, campaign director of [[Vote Leave]], "If there's no deal, there will be significant problems that were completely avoidable".<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/vote-leave-brexit-chief-dominic-cummings-disaster-eu-european-union-theresa-may-david-davis-a8002426.html |title=The man behind Brexit says it's turning into a disaster |date=16 October 2017|newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
|{{Graph:Chart|width=200|height=200
|xAxisTitle=Agreement
|yAxisTitle=Cost in billions of euros
|legend=Cost for business
|type=stackedrect
|x= With no deal, with deal
|y1= 30, 19
|y2= 35, 16
|yAxisFormat=s
|colors=#ae3C01,#2121ae,#7171fe,#c14A23,#FeFe01,#4674C0,#FeAaA5
|y1Title= UK
|y2Title= EU, not including UK
|yAxisMin=0
}}
|-
| * Source, Olivier Wayman report, ''La Tribune''<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.latribune.fr/economie/union-europeenne/brexit-sans-accord-la-facture-serait-bien-plus-elevee-771448.html |title=Brexit : sans accord, la facture serait bien plus élevée|newspaper=[[La Tribune]] |language=fr |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref> pounds have been converted to euros, on 12 March 2018
|}
Aviation would be particularly affected if the [[European Common Aviation Area]] and [[EU–US Open Skies Agreement]] no longer applied to the UK after a "no-deal" Brexit, since World Trade Organisation rules do not cover that sector,<ref>{{cite news |last1=Gerrard |first1=Bradley |title=With no plan B, Brexit stakes for aviation sector are sky high |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/18/no-plan-b-brexit-stakes-aviation-sector-sky-high/ |newspaper=The Daily Telegraph |date=18 August 2017 |accessdate=21 September 2017}}</ref> implying that the following day a British plane could not land at an EU airport.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/royaume-uni/legislatives-britanniques/brexit-le-resultat-des-legislatives-est-une-mauvaise-nouvelle-car-negocier-avec-un-partenaire-faible-nest-jamais-facile_2230587.html |title=Brexit : le résultat des législatives "est une mauvaise nouvelle" pour le président de la Fondation Robert-Schuman |date=10 June 2017 |website=FranceTVInfo.fr |language=fr |accessdate=23 June 2017}}</ref> UK government said in September 2018 that in case of no deal on aviation, UK would allow EU airlines to use British airports anyway, and expect EU countries to reciprocate.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-notices-aviation-safety/uk-would-allow-eu-airlines-to-fly-in-no-deal-brexit-would-keep-eu-safety-rules-idUSKCN1M41U8|title=UK would allow EU airlines to fly in no-deal Brexit, would keep EU safety rules|access-date=18 October 2018|date=24 September 2018|website=reuters.com}}</ref>
The ''no deal scenario'' could create a disruption in transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union: for instance, with delays generated by the customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls for road transport and ports.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-eu-warns-citizens-prepare-for-worst |title=Barnier welcomes Raab by stressing urgency of Irish border deadline |first1=Daniel |last1=Boffey |first2=Jennifer |last2=Rankin |date=19 July 2018|newspaper=The Guardian}}</ref>
The National Police Coordination Centre has warned that no deal would result in civil disorder at the UK's ports and borders, a "real possibility" of calling upon military assistance, a rise in crime (particularly theft and robbery) and widespread illness and disease following food and drug shortages (including NHS supplies). Police officers who are EU nationals may potentially be unable to hold a warrant card (which would leave the [[Metropolitan Police]] 750 officers short), and the ability for the police to deal with criminality from non-UK residents would be undermined as the UK "falls out of the various treaties such as the [[European arrest warrant]], [[Schengen information system]] and membership of [[Europol]]".<ref>{{cite news |last1=Wheeler |first1=Caroline |title=Police plan for riots and crimewave if there is no-deal Brexit |url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/police-plan-for-riots-and-crimewave-if-there-is-no-deal-brexit-frbbnjjqp |accessdate=9 September 2018 |newspaper=[[The Sunday Times]] |subscription=y |date=9 September 2018 |issn=0140-0460 |oclc=643156226}}</ref> [[Sara Thornton (police officer)|Sara Thornton]] of the [[National Police Chiefs' Council|NPCC]] said, "Existing EU tools allow us to respond quickly and intelligently to crime and terrorism in the UK and the EU – they make us better at protecting the public. The alternatives we are planning to use, where they exist, are without exception slower, more bureaucratic and ultimately less effective."<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/18/police-chiefs-no-deal-brexit-would-mean-loss-crime-fighting-tools|title=Police chiefs: no-deal Brexit would mean loss of crime-fighting tools|newspaper=[[The Guardian]]|access-date=18 October 2018|date=18 September 2018|first1=Vikram|last1=Dodd}}</ref> Finding out if a suspect has criminal convictions will take much longer.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45561527|title=No-deal Brexit 'could make policing harder'|publisher=BBC|access-date=18 October 2018|date=18 September 2018}}</ref>
=== Contingency and preparedness{{Anchor|Yellowhammer}} ===
An EU document on ''Preparedness'' outlines the plans related to various issues (with or without withdrawal agreement), and another on ''Contingency'' describes measures to answer the consequences of a ''No deal''.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/communication-preparing-withdrawal-brexit-preparedness.pdf |title=Preparing for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union on 30 March 2019 |date=19 July 2018 |website=European Commission |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref>
To answer the consequences of a no deal Brexit, some players are involved in contingency planning and preparedness (but not panic).<ref name="nytimes.com"/> To limit the consequences of a ''no deal'' scenario, some companies, such as Airbus and Rolls-Royce, are stockpiling spares.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march |title=Don't worry, a no-deal Brexit won't be allowed to happen |first=Simon |last=Jenkins |date=19 July 2018 |newspaper=The Guardian}}</ref>
In the Netherlands, around 1,000 customs officials are being recruited to manage the border with UK after the no deal Brexit.<ref name="nytimes.com"/>
In the UK the need for new customs agents is estimated at 5,000.<ref name="nytimes.com"/> In Ireland, the need for new customs agents is estimated at 1,000.<ref name="nytimes.com"/>
The UK is considering converting some part of the M20 motorway into a parking lot for trucks, to manage a possible 17-mile (around 25-kilometer) line of traffic, as planned by the Dover port authority.<ref name="nytimes.com"/>
The EU Commission has published 68 notices to help various players to be aware of the Brexit consequences.<ref name="ReferenceA"/> The Commission is also considering notifying its international partners for international agreements that involved the UK as a member state, in case of no deal.<ref name="ReferenceA"/>
Over the course of August, September and October 2018, the UK Government published a series of technical notices and further guidance on preparing for a "no deal" scenario.<ref name=prepare>Department for Exiting the European Union, [https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-governments-preparations-for-a-no-deal-scenario/uk-governments-preparations-for-a-no-deal-scenario UK government's preparations for a 'no deal' scenario], updated 21 December 2018, accessed 1 January 2019</ref> The UK Treasury department has used the code name "[[Operation Yellowhammer]]" for no-deal contingency planning.<ref name="Ind20180906">{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/operation-yellowhammer-brexit-photo-eu-rail-access-nodeal-secret-paper-latest-document-a8525506.html |title=Operation Yellowhammer: Photo of secret government no-deal Brexit papers reveals questions over 'rail access to the EU |date=6 September 2018 |newspaper=The independent|url-access=limited}}</ref> On 18 December 2018, the UK cabinet agreed to proceed with a further phase of "no deal" planning.<ref name=prepare />
On 25 March 2018, the EU published a press release outlining its preparedness for a possible no-deal scenario,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-1813_en.htm |title=Brexit preparedness: EU completes preparations for possible "no-deal" scenario on 12 April |website=European Commission Press Release Database |date=25 March 2019 |access-date=25 March 2019}}</ref> as well as a factsheet explaining border checks once British citizens become non-EU citizens.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/factsheet_1_travel_en_final.pdf |title=Travelling between the UK and the EU in the event of "No Deal" |website=European Commission |date=March 2019 |access-date=25 March 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/25/brussels-confirms-return-of-border-checks-under-no-deal-brexit |title=Brussels confirms return of border checks under no-deal Brexit |last=Rankin |first=Jennifer |work=[[The Guardian]] |date=25 March 2019 |access-date=25 March 2019}}</ref>
== Possibility of an extended transitional period ==
Most of the major UK political parties support the idea of a transition period for applying temporary trade arrangements after the end of the UK's membership of the EU.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.incelaw.com/tw/knowledge-bank/the-post-brexit-transitional-period-bridge-over-troubled-negotiations |title=The post-Brexit transitional period: Bridge over troubled negotiations? |website=International Law Firm |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref>
According to a speech by [[Michel Barnier]] in September 2017, the [[EU]] would have to define the conditions for a transitional period, if the [[UK]] requests one, and the transition period would be part of the [[Article 50]] withdrawal agreement.<ref name="europa.eu">{{cite web |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3404_en.htm |title=Press release - Speech by Michel Barnier in front of the Committees of Foreign Affairs and the Committees of European Affairs of the Italian Parliament |date= |website=European Commission |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
=== UK government's legal advice ===
Following an unprecedented vote on 4 December 2018, MPs ruled that the UK government was in [[contempt of parliament]] for refusing to provide to Parliament, the full legal advice it had been given on the effect of its proposed terms for withdrawal.<ref name=brexitbbc20181205>{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46451970 |title=Brexit: Legal advice warns of Irish border 'stalemate' |publisher=BBC News |date=5 December 2018 |accessdate=30 December 2018}}</ref> The key point within the advice covered the legal effect of the "backstop" agreement governing Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, and the rest of the UK, in regard to the customs border between the EU and UK, and its implications for the [[Good Friday agreement]] which had led to the end of [[the Troubles]] in Northern Ireland, and specifically, whether the UK would be certain of being able to leave the EU in a practical sense, under the draft proposals.
The following day, the advice was published. The question asked was, ''"What is the legal effect of the UK agreeing to the Protocol to the Withdrawal Agreement on Ireland and Northern Ireland in particular its effect in conjunction with Articles 5 and 184 of the main Withdrawal Agreement?"'' The advice given was that:<ref name=brexitbbc20181205/>
:The Protocol is binding on the UK and EU [para 3], and anticipates a final future resolution of the border and customs issues being reached [para 5,12,13]. But "the Protocol is intended to subsist even when negotiations have clearly broken down" [para 16] and "In conclusion, the current drafting of the Protocol ... does not provide for a mechanism that is likely to enable the UK lawfully to exit the UK wide customs union without a subsequent agreement. This remains the case even if parties are still negotiating many years later, and even if the parties believe that talks have clearly broken down and there is no prospect of a future relationship agreement." [para 30]
== Future trade deal between the UK and EU ==
[[File:European Single Market integration.svg|thumb|{{Leftlegend|#3dc1ed|Non-EU states that participate in the EU Single Market with exceptions: [[Iceland]], [[Liechtenstein]], [[Norway]] and [[Switzerland]] (see also [[European Free Trade Association|EFTA]])<ref name="norwaymodel"/>}}]]
While negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union were in progress, Barnier, as the EU's chief negotiator, speaking in Rome to Committees of the Italian Parliament on 21 September 2017, stated that a future trade deal with the United Kingdom is the trade deal which will be negotiated after sufficient progress has been made on the withdrawal deal. Barnier commented that the EU will want to negotiate a future trade deal with the United Kingdom, because trade with the United Kingdom will continue.<ref name="auto5">{{cite web |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3404_en.htm |title=Speech by Michel Barnier in front of the Committees of Foreign Affairs and the Committees of European Affairs of the Italian Parliament, Rome |date=21 September 2017 |website=European Commission |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> At the same time Barnier said "the future trade deal with the United Kingdom will be particular, as it will be less about building convergence, and more about controlling future divergence. This is key to establishing fair competition."<ref name="auto5"/>
The United Kingdom's prime minister, in a speech at the [[Santa Maria Novella]] church in Florence on 22 September 2017,<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2017/sep/22/mays-florence-speech-venue-represents-european-unity-not-division |title=May's Florence speech venue represents European unity, not division |date=22 September 2017 |newspaper=The Guardian |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> proposed an economic partnership between the UK and the EU which respects both the freedoms and principles of the EU, and the wishes of the British people. At the same time she re-affirmed that after the UK leaves the EU a period of implementation would be in their mutual interest, to be agreed under Article 50 for a strictly time-limited period.<ref name="Spectator9-17"/>
The European parliament voted a Brexit resolution (the European Parliament resolution of 14 March 2018 on the framework of the future EU-UK relationship (2018/2573(RSP)) with 544 MEP against 110 (with 51 abstentions<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/media/news/2018/march18/association-agreement.html |title=Brexit: EP recommends association agreement for future EU-UK relations |website=European Parliament |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref>). The 14 page<ref name="europa.eu1">{{cite web |url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//NONSGML+TA+P8-TA-2018-0069+0+DOC+PDF+V0//EN |title=Guidelines on the framework of future EU-UK relations |date=14 March 2018 |website=European Parliament |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> document states that an association agreement between EU and UK could be an adequate framework for the future. This resolution proposes that the agreement address four domains: trade, interior security, foreign and defense policy collaboration, and thematic cooperation (for instance for research and innovation).<ref>{{cite magazine |url=https://lentreprise.lexpress.fr/actualites/1/actualites/brexit-les-eurodeputes-proposent-un-accord-d-association-au-royaume-uni_1992319.html |title=Brexit : les eurodéputés proposent un accord d'association au Royaume-Uni |date=14 March 2018|magazine=[[L'Express]] |language=fr |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&reference=P8-TA-2017-0490&language=EN&ring=B8-2017-0677 |title=State of play of negotiations with the United Kingdom |date=13 December 2017 |website=European Parliament |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref>
The resolution also urges the UK to present a clear position on all outstanding issues pertaining to its orderly withdrawal.<ref name="europa.eu1"/>
On 13 November 2018, the UK and EU reached an agreement on the wording of the Withdrwawal Agreement (WA) and Political Declaration.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-european-union-thresa-may-brexit-negotiators-have-agreed-a-deal-2018-11|title=UK and EU negotiators have agreed on a Brexit deal|website=Businessinsider.com|accessdate=14 November 2018}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46188790|title=Brexit text agreed in talks breakthrough|date=14 November 2018|accessdate=14 November 2018|website=Bbc.com}}</ref>
The Withdrawal agreement covers the settlement of UK's financial commitments, the Border between NI and Ireland, the status of EU citizens in the UK, and the conditions for the transition period. The Political Declaration is effectively a statement of intent between the EU and UK to proceed to negotiate to a full and final trade deal which will apply after the transition period. It outlines the shape of the future relationship between the EU and UK, but is not a legally binding trade agreement.
On 14 November 2018, May's Cabinet approved the draft agreements.<ref name=bbcnov14>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46215930|title=Cabinet backs draft Brexit agreement|date=14 November 2018|accessdate=14 November 2018|website=Bbc.com}}</ref><ref name=nov14>{{cite web|url=https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-deal-latest-theresa-mays-cabinet-backs-eu-divorce-deal-a3990241.html|title=PM's Cabinet backs Brexit divorce deal|website=standard.co.uk|accessdate=14 November 2018|date=2018-11-14}}</ref><ref name=nov14wapo>{{cite web |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/theresa-may-faces-crunch-cabinet-showdown-over-her-brexit-plans/2018/11/14/124a425a-e807-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html |title=Archived copy |access-date=14 November 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181114174051/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/theresa-may-faces-crunch-cabinet-showdown-over-her-brexit-plans/2018/11/14/124a425a-e807-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html |archive-date=14 November 2018 |dead-url=yes }}</ref><ref name=nytnov14>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/14/world/europe/uk-cabinet-may-brexit.html|title=U.K. Cabinet Backs Theresa May’s Brexit Plan|website=Nytimes.com|accessdate=14 November 2018}}</ref> Shortly after it was approved by the British Cabinet, the European Commission published the 585 pages draft withdrawal agreement.[https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf ]
In December 2018, Secretary for Work and Pensions [[Amber Rudd]] suggested that a [[Norway-plus]] model – the membership of the [[European Economic Area]] (EEA) – could be an alternative if Theresa May's Brexit deal is rejected.<ref name="norwaymodel">{{cite news |title=Rudd says Norway-style Brexit deal is 'plausible' |url=https://www.ft.com/content/3a0010aa-facb-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e |work=Financial Times |date=8 December 2018}}</ref>
== See also ==
{{Wikipedia books
|1=Brexit
|3=Brexit, Article 50, and other articles
}}
{{Wikipedia books|Britain, Ireland and the European Union}}
* The [[European Atomic Energy Community]] (Euratom) – legally distinct from the EU but having the same membership, from which the United Kingdom is also withdrawing
* {{Books-inline|Brexit, Article 50, and other articles}} (includes articles on UK and EU treaties, policies, institutions, law and justice, and EU history)
{{-}}
==Notes==
{{notelist}}
== References ==
{{Reflist}}
== External links ==
* [http://www.parliament.uk/business/news/european-union UK Parliament – Brexit News]
* [http://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union Gov.UK – Department for Exiting the European Union]
* [http://www.planforbritain.gov.uk UK Government – "Plan for Britain" website]
* [http://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/unitedkingdom_en#brexit Europa (EU official website) – UK – Brexit – overview]
* [https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit-negotiations_en European Commission – Brexit negotiations website]
* [https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit-negotiations/negotiating-documents-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en European Commission – list of published negotiating documents]
* [https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness/preparedness-notices_en European Commission – Preparedness notices]
* [http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-uk-after-referendum/ ''Brexit'', EC, CEU Timeline and list of key documents for Brexit negotiations]
* [http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683123.001.0001/acprof-9780199683123 ''The Principle of Loyalty in EU Law'', 2014, by Marcus Klamert, Legal Officer, European Commission]
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20170828215154/http://jackofkent.com/brexit-negotiations-resource-page/ Resource page] and commentary by [[David Allen Green]]
* [https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/brexit-pound-exchange-rate-tracker Exchange Rates UK - Brexit Timeline With Chart for Impact on Pound Sterling]
* [https://www.dfa.ie/media/dfa/eu/brexit/keydocuments/Omnibus-Bill-Memo.pdf Explanatory Memorandum for the ''Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Consequential Provisions) Bill 2019'' introduced by the Irish government in the legislature ([[Oireachtas]])]
{{2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum}}
[[Category:Brexit|Negotiation]]
[[Category:Negotiation]]
[[Category:2017 in the European Union]]
[[Category:2017 in British politics]]
[[Category:2018 in the European Union]]
[[Category:2018 in British politics]]
[[Category:2019 in the European Union]]
[[Category:2019 in British politics]]
[[Category:June 2017 events in Europe]]
[[Category:Membership treaties of the European Union]]
[[Category:Disaster preparedness]]' |
New page wikitext, after the edit (new_wikitext) | '{{short description|Brexit, also known as shit show fest 2019. Negotiations for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=March 2019}}
{{Use British English|date = March 2019}}
{{Infobox treaty
| name = Brexit negotiations (2017–present)
| image = UK location in the EU 2016.svg
| image_width = 250px
| caption = Map of the [[United Kingdom]] within the [[European Union]]
| type = Withdrawal agreement<br/>Transitional agreement<br/>Trade agreement
| date_signed =
| signatures =
| negotiators =
* {{flagicon|EU}} [[Donald Tusk]]<br/>([[President of the European Council|Council President]])
* {{flagicon|EU}} [[Jean-Claude Juncker]]<br/>([[President of the European Commission|Commission President]])
* {{flagicon|EU}} '''[[Michel Barnier]]'''<br/>(Chief Negotiator)
* {{flagicon|GBR}} [[Theresa May]]<br/>([[Prime Minister of the United Kingdom|Prime Minister]])
* {{flagicon|GBR}} '''[[Olly Robbins]]'''{{refn|group=lower-alpha|name=Prime Minister's Europe Advisor|Olly Robbins was appointed as the Prime Minister's Europe Advisor on 18 September 2017. He was previously the [[Department for Exiting the European Union|Brexit Department]]'s first Permanent Secretary.}}<br/>([[Prime Minister's Office (United Kingdom)|Prime Minister's Europe Adviser]] and Chief Negotiator)<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44941792|title=Theresa May takes personal charge of Brexit talks|date=24 July 2018|website=[[BBC News]]}}</ref>
* {{flagicon|GBR}} until 15 November 2018, [[Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union|Brexit Secretary]]{{refn|group=lower-alpha|name=Former Brexit Secretaries|Incumbents during the negotiations were [[David Davis (British politician)|David Davis]] (July '16 to July '18) and [[Dominic Raab]] (July '18 to November '18).}}
|parties = * {{flag|European Union}}
* {{flag|United Kingdom}}
| condition_effective = [[Ratification]] by the Council of the European Union, the [[European Parliament]], and the [[Parliament of the United Kingdom]].
| footnotes = {{reflist|group=lower-alpha}}
| wikisource = Draft Agreement on the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union
}}
{{United Kingdom in the European Union}}
{{multiple image
| total_width = 250
| image1 = Olly Robbins.jpg |width1=1554 |caption1={{flagicon|UK}} [[Olly Robbins]]
| alt1 =
| image2 = Barnier, Michel-9568.jpg |width2=2088 |height2=3137 |caption2={{flagicon|EU}} [[Michel Barnier]]
| alt2 =
| footer = Lead negotiators for the UK and EU
}}
Negotiations are taking place between the [[United Kingdom]] and the [[European Union]] for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, known as [[Brexit]], following the [[United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016|United Kingdom European Union membership referendum]] on 23 June 2016.
The negotiating period began on 29 March 2017, when the United Kingdom [[United Kingdom invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union|served the withdrawal notice under Article 50]] of the [[Treaty on European Union]]; under the two-year deadline prescribed by [[Withdrawal Agreement|Article 50]], the period was to end on 29 March 2019.
On 19 June 2017, then-British [[Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union|Brexit Secretary]] [[David Davis (British politician)|David Davis]] arrived in Brussels to begin talks with [[Michel Barnier]], the Chief Negotiator appointed by the [[European Commission]].<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/19/boris-johnson-and-gove-both-back-may-as-tory-leadership-speculation-continues-politics-live |title=UK appears to capitulate on sequencing on first day of Brexit talks – as it happened |first=Andrew |last=Sparrow |date=19 June 2017|newspaper=The Guardian |accessdate=23 June 2017}}</ref> Negotiations on the [[Brexit withdrawal agreement|withdrawal agreement]] (which includes a transitional period and an outline of the objectives for a future relationship between the UK and the EU) were concluded in November 2018, with the European Union indicating that no further negotiation or changes before the UK legally leaves will be possible. If the withdrawal agreement is ratified by the UK and other EU state governments and comes into force, more negotiations might be needed to address [[EU free trade agreements|Free Trade Agreement treaties]] between the European Union and its members (including the UK) for one part and third countries for the other part, and the [[tariff-rate quota]], which might be split or renegotiated.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.ceps.eu/publications/impact-brexit-eu%E2%80%99s-international-agreements |title=The Impact of Brexit on the EU's International Agreements |date=15 July 2016 |website=Centre for European Policy Studies |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |url=https://www.cigionline.org/publications/brexit-and-international-trade-one-year-after-referendum |title=Brexit and International Trade: One Year after the Referendum |first=Valerie |last=Hughes |date=26 September 2017 |journal=Centre for International Governance Innovation |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref>
In March and April 2019, [[Prime Minister of the United Kingdom]] [[Theresa May]] and [[European Union]] leaders negotiated a delay, moving the deadline from 29 March to 31 October 2019.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47663031|title=Brexit pushed back by at least two weeks|date=22 March 2019|access-date=22 March 2019}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47889404|title=Brexit: UK and EU agree delay to 31 October|date=11 April 2019|access-date=11 April 2019}}</ref> On 27 March 2019, Theresa May vowed to resign as Prime Minister if her Brexit agreement passes through Parliament.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47725529|title=Brexit: Theresa May has stated her intention to stand down if the deal is passed|last=|first=|date=27 March 2019|work=BBC News|access-date=27 March 2019}}</ref>
== Background ==
{{Brexit sidebar}}
=== 2015 United Kingdom general election ===
In the [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservative Party]]'s manifesto for the [[2015 United Kingdom general election|United Kingdom general election in May 2015]], an EU referendum was promised by the end of 2017.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32302062|title=At-a-glance: Conservative manifesto|date=15 April 2015|accessdate=22 September 2018|website=Bbc.co.uk}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/14/conservatives-election-manifesto-2015-the-key-points|title=Conservatives election manifesto 2015 - the key points|first=Frances|last=Perraudin|date=14 April 2015|website=the Guardian|accessdate=22 September 2018}}</ref>
The [[2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum|referendum]], held on 23 June 2016, resulted in a 51.9% majority vote for Leaving the European Union.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results|title=EU referendum results|date=24 June 2016|accessdate=5 March 2019|website=BBC.co.uk}}</ref>
== Preparatory work, and intentions ==
According to the European parliament, "For the moment, it appears that the two sides have different views on the sequencing and scope of the negotiations, and notably the cross-over between the withdrawal agreement and the structure of future relations, and this divergence itself may be one of the first major challenges to overcome."<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2017/599352/EPRS_IDA%282017%29599352_EN.pdf |title=UK withdrawal from the European Union |website=European Parliament |date=March 2017}}</ref>
=== UK negotiation ===
* [[Theresa May]], [[Prime Minister of the United Kingdom]]
* [[Oliver Robbins]], Europe advisor to the Prime Minister
* [[David Davis (British politician)|David Davis]], [[Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union]] until 8 July 2018.
* [[Dominic Raab]], Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union from 9 July 2018 until 15 November 2018.
* [[Stephen Barclay]], Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union from 16 November 2018.
* Sir [[Tim Barrow]], [[List of Permanent Representatives of the United Kingdom to the European Union|UK Permanent Representative to the EU]]
The [[Department for Exiting the European Union]] is responsible for overseeing the negotiations to leave the EU and for establishing the future relationship between the UK and EU.
The United Kingdom's proposed principles were set out in the Article 50 notification:
* Constructive discussions
* Citizens first
* Comprehensive agreement
* Minimise disruption
* Ireland/Northern Ireland position
* Technical talks on detailed policy
* Work together on European values<ref>{{cite news |url= https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/29/article-50-brexit-letter-read-full/ |title= Article 50 letter: Read it in full |newspaper=[[The Daily Telegraph]]|date=30 March 2017}}</ref>
The Prime Minister's formal letter of notification was delivered in Brussels on 29 March 2017.<ref name="notificationletter">{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/604079/Prime_Ministers_letter_to_European_Council_President_Donald_Tusk.pdf |title=Prime Minister's letter to Donald Tusk triggering Article 50 |date=19 March 2017 |website=UK Government |access-date=1 April 2017}}</ref> It included withdrawal from the [[European Atomic Energy Community]]. The letter recognised that consequences for the UK of leaving the EU included loss of influence over the rules that affect the European economy, and UK companies trading within the EU aligning with rules agreed by institutions of which the UK would no longer be part. It proposed agreeing to seven principles for the conduct of the withdrawal negotiation. These are for:
# engaging with one another constructively and respectfully, in a spirit of sincere cooperation.
# aiming to strike an early agreement about the rights of the many EU citizens living in the United Kingdom, and UK citizens living elsewhere in the European Union.
# working towards securing a comprehensive agreement, taking in both economic and security cooperation, and agreeing the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the EU.
# working together to minimise disruption and giving as much certainty as possible, letting people and businesses in the UK and the EU benefit from implementation periods to adjust in an orderly way to new arrangements.
# in particular, paying attention to the UK's unique relationship with the Republic of Ireland and the importance of the peace process in Northern Ireland.
# beginning technical talks on detailed policy areas as soon as possible, including a Free Trade Agreement covering sectors crucial to our linked economies such as financial services and network industries.
# continuing to work together to advance and protect our shared liberal, democratic values of Europe, to ensure that Europe remains able to lead in the world, projecting its values and defending itself from security threats.
==== Role of the countries of the United Kingdom ====
{{Further|Countries of the United Kingdom}}
The constitutional lawyer and retired German Supreme Court judge [[Udo Di Fabio]] has stated his opinion that separate negotiations with the EU institutions by Scotland or Northern Ireland would constitute a violation of the Lisbon Treaty, according to which the integrity of a member country is explicitly put under protection.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/brexit/zukunft-der-europaeischen-union-kopf-hoch-14327446.html |title=Future of the European Union – Chin up! |last=Di Fabio |first=Udo |date=7 July 2016|newspaper=[[Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung]] |accessdate=29 October 2016}}</ref>
==== UK general election ====
The start of negotiations was delayed until after the [[United Kingdom general election, 2017|United Kingdom general election]], which took place on 8 June 2017.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39643804 |title=General election 2017: MPs back plans for 8 June poll |website=BBC News |date=19 April 2017}}</ref> [[Antonio Tajani]], speaking on 20 April said that the early election should bring stability to the UK, which would have been good for negotiations.<ref name="Sky204">{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/general-election-is-good-for-brexit-negotiations-says-european-parliament-president-10844115 |title=General Election is good for Brexit negotiations, says European Parliament President |website=Sky News |date=20 April 2017}}</ref> In the event, the election led to a [[hung parliament]] which has reduced the Prime Minister's room for manoeuvre; in particular in respect of the [[Irish border question]] due to her dependency on a [[confidence and supply]] agreement with Northern Ireland's [[Democratic Unionist Party]].
=== EU27 negotiation ===
{{See also|European Union negotiating directives for Brexit}}
* [[Michel Barnier]], Chief negotiator
* [[Guy Verhofstadt]], representative of the [[European Parliament]] in the negotiations
* [[Donald Tusk]], [[President of the European Council]]
* [[Antonio Tajani]], [[President of the European Parliament]]
* [[Jean-Claude Juncker]], [[President of the European Commission]]
Following the United Kingdom's notification under Article 50, draft guidelines for the negotiations were sent to EU delegations of the 27 other member states (the EU27). The draft, prepared by the [[President of the European Council]], states that the guidelines define the framework for negotiations under Article 50 and set out the overall positions and principles that the Union will pursue throughout the negotiation. It states that in the negotiations the Union's overall objective will be to preserve its interests, those of its member states, its citizens and its businesses, and that, in the best interest of both sides, the Union will be constructive throughout and strive to find an agreement. The draft sets out two core principles:
# The European Council will continue to base itself on the principles set out in the statement of Heads of State or Government and of the Presidents of the European Council and the European Commission on 29 June 2016. It reiterates its wish to have the United Kingdom as a close partner in the future. It further reiterates that any agreement with the United Kingdom will have to be based on a balance of rights and obligations, and ensure a level-playing field. Preserving the integrity of the [[European Single Market]] excludes participation based on a sector-by-sector approach. A non-member of the Union, that does not live up to the same obligations as a member, cannot have the same rights and enjoy the same benefits as a member. In this context, the European Council welcomes the recognition by the British Government that the four freedoms of the Single Market are indivisible and that there can be no "cherry picking".
# Negotiations under Article 50 TEU ([[Treaty on European Union]]) will be conducted as a single package. In accordance with the principle that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, individual items cannot be settled separately. The Union will approach the negotiations with unified positions, and will engage with the United Kingdom exclusively through the channels set out in these guidelines and in the negotiating directives. So as not to undercut the position of the Union, there will be no separate negotiations between individual member states and the United Kingdom on matters pertaining to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the Union."<ref>{{cite news |newspaper=The Daily Telegraph |title=In full: The EU's draft guidelines for Brexit negotiations |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/31/full-eus-draft-guidelines-brexit-negotiations/ |date=31 March 2017 |accessdate=8 April 2018 }}</ref>
According to the European Parliament, the withdrawal agreement and any possible transitional arrangement(s) should enter into force "well before the elections to the European Parliament of May 2019", and the negotiations should focus on:<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/resources/library/media/20170329RES69090/20170329RES69090.pdf |title=European Parliament resolution on negotiations with the United Kingdom following its notification that it intends to withdraw from the European Union |website=European Parliament |date=29 March 2017}}</ref>
* The legal status of European Union citizens living or having lived in the United Kingdom and of United Kingdom citizens living or having lived in other member states, as well as other provisions concerning their rights;
* The settlement of financial obligations between the United Kingdom and the European Union;
* The European Union's external border;
* The clarification of the status of the United Kingdom's international commitments taken as a Member of the European Union, given that the European Union of 27 member states will be the legal successor of the European Union of 28 member states;
* Legal certainty for legal entities, including companies;
* The designation of the Court of Justice of the European Union as the competent authority for the interpretation and enforcement of the withdrawal agreement.
On 18 April 2017, a spokesman for [[Donald Tusk]] said "We expect to have the Brexit guidelines adopted by the European Council on 29 April and, following that, the Brexit negotiating directives ready on 22 May".<ref>{{Cite news |url=http://news.sky.com/story/election-call-likened-to-hitchcock-film-by-eus-donald-tusk-10842357 |title=Election call likened to Hitchcock film by EU's Donald Tusk |last=Minelle |first=Bethany |date=18 April 2017 |website=Sky News |access-date=19 April 2017}}</ref> On 29 April, the EU27 unanimously endorsed the draft guidelines with no debate.<ref name="Sky294">{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/eu-leaders-unanimously-agree-brexit-strategy-10855627 |title=EU leaders unanimously agree Brexit strategy |website=Sky News |date=29 April 2017}}</ref>
In a speech to a plenary session of the European Committee of the Regions in Brussels on 22 March 2017, Barnier, as EU Chief Negotiator for the Preparation and Conduct of the Negotiations, said that the EU wanted to succeed by reaching a deal with the British, not against them.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-723_en.htm |title=Speech by Michel Barnier, Chief Negotiator for the Preparation and Conduct of the Negotiations with the United Kingdom, at the plenary session of the European Committee of the Regions |date=22 March 2017 |website=[[European Commission]] |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref>
On 22 May the European Council, following the approval of [[European Union negotiating directives for Brexit|the negotiating directives]] that the EU27 had adopted by strong [[qualified majority voting]],{{efn|at least 72% of the 27 member states (that is, 20 member states), together representing at least 65% of the population of the EU27}} authorised the Commission to open Article 50 discussions with UK, with Michel Barnier appointed as the negotiator. It further confirmed that all agendas, EU position papers, Non-papers and EU text proposals would be released to the public and published on line.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1405_en.htm |title=European Commission receives mandate to begin negotiations with the UK |website=European Commission |date=22 May 2017}}</ref>
=== Intergovernmental organisation ===
[[Intergovernmental organisation]]s also involved in Brexit uncertainty considerations include the [[World Trade Organization]] (WTO) and the [[International Air Transport Association]] (IATA). IATA expects an agreement to avoid disruption.<ref>{{cite magazine |url=http://www.air-cosmos.com/brexit-iata-veut-une-solution-rapide-104095 |title=Brexit : IATA veut une solution rapide |first=Jean-Baptiste |last=Heguy |date=5 December 2017 |magazine=[[Air & Cosmos]] |language=fr |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
=== Phases ===
EU27 guidelines include:
* Agreement on the so-called "[[EU divorce bill|divorce bill]]";
* Agreement on rights of EU citizens living in the UK;
* Agreement on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic
within the withdrawal phase.<ref name="Sky294" />
The second phase, covering the post-Brexit relationship between the EU27 and the UK, was to begin "as soon as the European Council decides that sufficient progress has been made in the first phase towards reaching a satisfactory agreement on the arrangements for an orderly withdrawal".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29-euco-brexit-guidelines/ |title=European Council (Art. 50) guidelines for Brexit negotiations |date=29 April 2017 |website=European Council |access-date=9 September 2017}}</ref> The earliest opportunity for this decision was 19 October 2017, at a summit of EU leaders.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-30/brexit-watchers-your-guide-to-key-dates-in-coming-negotiations |title=Your Guide to Key Dates in the Brexit Negotiations |last=Chrysoloras |first=Nikos |date=30 March 2017 |website=Bloomberg.com|access-date=9 September 2017}}</ref> although at that meeting it was agreed to start negotiations during the December meeting.<ref name="auto2">{{cite web |url=http://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/23512/20-euco-conclusions-art50.pdf |title=Council Conclusions |date=20 October 2017 |website=European Council |access-date=8 December 2017}}</ref>
== Negotiation policy ==
{{Quote box
|quote ="We recognise how important it is to provide business, the public sector and the public with as much certainty as possible. So ahead of, and throughout the negotiations, we will provide certainty wherever we can. We will provide as much information as we can without undermining the national interest."
|source = {{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/589191/The_United_Kingdoms_exit_from_and_partnership_with_the_EU_Web.pdf |title=The United Kingdom's exit from and new partnership with the European Union |date=February 2017 |website=UK Government |page=9}}
|align = left
|width = 20%
}}
Some effects of the UK withdrawal could emerge before the UK and the EU27 conclude the Article 50 negotiation, as a result of policies existing when the negotiation begins, or some change of policy later. At the outset policy provisions binding on the EU include principles, aspirations and objectives set out in the TEU ([[Treaty on European Union]]) Preamble<ref>{{cite web |url=https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Consolidated_version_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union/Preamble |title=Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union|at=Peramble|via=Wikisource}}</ref> and Articles,<ref>{{cite web |url=https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Consolidated_version_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union/Title_I:_Common_Provisions |title=Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union|at=Title I: Common Provisions|via=Wikisource}}</ref> of which
:''Article 3'' mentions the promotion of "scientific and technological advance" in a context governed by "The Union's aim is to promote peace, its values and the well-being of its peoples", the Union's [[European Single Market|internal market]], "work for the [[sustainable development]] of Europe based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive [[social market economy]], aiming at full employment and social progress", and the requirement that "The Union shall pursue its objectives by appropriate means commensurate with the competences which are conferred upon it in the Treaties",
and
:''Article 4'' mentions "competences not conferred upon the Union in the Treaties remain with the Member States".
Policies mentioned in the Preamble include:
* Achieve the strengthening and convergence of member states' economies and establish an economic and monetary union including a single and stable currency,
* Promote economic and social progress for their peoples, taking into account the principle of sustainable development and within the context of the accomplishment of the internal market and of reinforced cohesion and environmental protection, and implement policies ensuring that advances in economic integration are accompanied by parallel progress in other fields,
* Establish a citizenship common to nationals of their countries,
* Implement a common foreign and security policy including the progressive framing of a common defence policy, thereby reinforcing the European identity and its independence in order to promote peace, security and progress in Europe and in the world,
* Facilitate the [[Freedom of movement for workers in the European Union|free movement of persons]], while ensuring the safety and security of their peoples, by establishing an area of freedom, security and justice.
* Continue the process of creating an ever-closer union among the peoples of Europe, in which decisions are taken as closely as possible to the citizen in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity.
UK policy was stated in a [[white paper]] published in February 2017: ''The United Kingdom's exit from and new partnership with the European Union''.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/589191/The_United_Kingdoms_exit_from_and_partnership_with_the_EU_Web.pdf |title=The United Kingdom's exit from and new partnership with the European Union |date=February 2017 |website=UK Government}}</ref> In the white paper, UK negotiating policy was set out as twelve guiding principles:
:# Providing certainty and clarity, including a "Great Repeal Bill" to remove the European Communities Act 1972 from the [[statute book]] and convert existing EU law into domestic law.
:# Taking control of the UK statute book and ending the jurisdiction of the [[Court of Justice of the European Union]] in the UK.
:# Strengthening the Union of all parts of the Kingdom, and remaining fully committed to the [[Good Friday Agreement|Belfast Agreement]] and its successors.
:# Working to deliver a practical solution that allows for the maintenance of the [[Common Travel Area]] whilst protecting the integrity of the UK immigration system, and which protects the strong ties with Ireland.
:# Controlling the number of EU nationals coming to the UK.
:# Securing the status of EU citizens who are already living in the UK, and that of UK nationals in other member states.
:# Protecting and enhancing existing workers' rights.
:# Forging a new partnership with the EU, including a wide reaching free trade agreement, and seeking a mutually beneficial new customs agreement with the EU.
:# Forging free trade relationships across the world.
:# Remaining at the vanguard of science and innovation and seeking continued close collaboration with the UK's European partners.
:# Continuing to work with the EU to preserve European security, to fight terrorism, and to uphold justice across Europe.
:# Seeking a phased process of implementation, in which both the UK and the EU institutions and the remaining EU member states prepare for the new arrangements.
=== Pre-negotiation events ===
On 28 June 2016, five days after the referendum, Chancellor of Germany [[Angela Merkel]] announced to the German parliament the forthcoming EU negotiation position: the UK could only remain in the [[European Single Market]] (ESM) if the UK accepted EU migrants. There would be no [[cherry picking]] of the ESM's four conditions (free movement of goods, capital, services and labour). While she expected the UK to remain an important NATO partner, the EU's priority was unity and self-preservation. She warned the UK not to delude itself.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article156631505/Mit-Merkel-wird-es-kein-Rosinenpicken-fuer-die-Briten-geben.html |title=Brexit-Bundestagsdebatte: Mit Merkel wird es kein Rosinenpicken für die Briten geben |trans-title=Brexit parliamentary debate: With Merkel there will be no cherrypicking for the British |newspaper=[[Die Welt]] |language=de |date=28 June 2016 |accessdate=14 May 2017}}</ref> The next day, Tusk confirmed that the UK would not be allowed access to the ESM unless they accepted its four freedoms of movement for goods, capital, services, and people.<ref>{{cite news |last=Heffer |first=Greg |date=29 June 2016 |title='It's not single market à la carte' Donald Tusk tells UK it's Free Movement or Nothing |url=http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/684528/Brexit-Donald-Tusk-Britain-free-movement-access-EU-single-market-David-Cameron |newspaper=Daily Express |access-date=1 July 2016}}</ref>
In contrast, at her October 2016 party conference, Prime Minister Theresa May emphasised that ending the jurisdiction of EU law and free movement from Europe were priorities. She wished "to give British companies the maximum freedom to trade with and operate in the Single Market – and let European businesses do the same here", but not at the expense of losing sovereignty.<ref>{{cite news |date=2 October 2016 |title=Theresa May – her full Brexit speech to Conservative conference |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-conference-speech-article-50-brexit-eu-a7341926.html |newspaper=The Independent |access-date=14 May 2017}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Mason |first=Rowena |date=5 October 2016 |title=Theresa May's Conservative party conference speech – key points analysed |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/05/mays-conservative-party-conference-speech-key-points-analysed |newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=14 May 2017}}</ref>
In November 2016, May proposed that Britain and the other EU countries mutually guarantee the residency rights of the 3.3 million EU immigrants in Britain and those of the 1.2 million British citizens living on the Continent, in order to exclude their fates being bargained during Brexit negotiations.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/22/british-expats-set-granted-right-carry-living-eu-theresa-mays |title=British expats set to be granted right to carry on living in EU with Theresa May 'close to reciprocal rights deal' |last=Hope |first=Christopher |date=23 November 2016|newspaper=The Daily Telegraph |accessdate=18 January 2017}}</ref> Despite initial approval from a majority of EU states, May's proposal was blocked by European Council President Tusk and German Chancellor Merkel.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/donald-tusk-accuses-british-voters-backed-brexit-creating-anxiety/ |title=Angela Merkel says 'nein' to Theresa May's calls for early deal on rights of EU migrants and British ex-pats |last=Swinford |first=Steven |date=29 November 2016|newspaper=The Daily Telegraph |accessdate=18 January 2017}}</ref>
In January 2017, the Prime Minister presented 12 negotiating objectives and confirmed that the UK government would not seek permanent [[British membership of the European Economic Area|single market membership]].<ref name="Painstaking" /> The European Parliament's lead negotiator [[Guy Verhofstadt]] responded that there could be no "cherry picking" by the UK in the talks.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38641208 |title=Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May |last=Kuenssberg |first=Laura |date=17 January 2017 |website=BBC News |access-date=14 May 2017}}</ref>
The statutory period for negotiation began on 29 March 2017, when the letter notifying withdrawal, signed by the British Prime Minister, was handed to the president of the European Council. The letter called for a "deep and special relationship" between the UK and the EU, and warned that failure to reach an agreement would result in EU-UK trade under World Trade Organisation terms, and a weakening of the UK's cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism. The letter suggested prioritising an early deal on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and vice versa. In the letter, the Prime Minister reasoned that, as the EU leaders did not wish "cherry picking" of the ESM, the UK would not seek to remain within the ESM. Instead, the UK would seek a free trade agreement with the EU.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39431070 |date=29 March 2017 |website=BBC News |title=Brexit: The UK's letter triggering Article 50|access-date=15 May 2017}}</ref> In response, Merkel insisted that the EU would not discuss future cooperation without first settling the terms of the divorce, Verhofstadt referred to the letter as "blackmail" with regard to the point on security and terrorism, and EU Commission president [[Jean-Claude Juncker]] warned that the UK's decision to quit the block was a "choice they will regret one day".<ref>{{cite news |last=Asthana |first=Anushka |date=30 March 2017 |title=Don't blackmail us over security, EU warns May |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/29/brexit-eu-condemns-mays-blackmail-over-security-cooperation |newspaper=The Guardian |access-date=15 May 2017}}</ref>
A meeting at [[10 Downing Street]] took place on 6 April 2017 between [[Theresa May]] and [[Donald Tusk]] to discuss "the way ahead on Brexit".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/pm-to-meet-donald-tusk-to-for-brexit-discussions-at-number-10-10827086 |title=PM to meet Donald Tusk for Brexit discussions at Number 10 |website=Sky News |date=6 April 2017}}</ref> Another meeting took place in London on 20 April 2017, this time between Theresa May and [[Antonio Tajani]] to discuss the rights of EU citizens.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.politico.eu/article/antonio-tajani-meet-theresa-may-in-london-parliament-president/ |title=Antonio Tajani to meet Theresa May in London |website=Politico.eu |date=13 April 2017}}</ref> After 20 April meeting, Antonio Tajani said that the UK and EU27 timetables fitted well together, with a two-year exit deal negotiation followed by a three-year transition phase.<ref name=Sky204/> A 10 Downing Street meeting between Theresa May, [[Michel Barnier]] and [[Jean-Claude Juncker]] took place on 26 April to discuss the withdrawal process. May reiterated the UK's aim for a "deep and special partnership" after Brexit.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39722903 |title=Brexit: Theresa May meets EU's chief negotiator for talks |website=BBC News |date=27 April 2017}}</ref>
On 29 April 2017, immediately after the first round of French presidential elections, the EU27 heads of state unanimously accepted, without discussion,<ref>{{cite news |last=Boffey |first=Daniel |date=29 April 2017 |title=EU leaders agree on tough stance at special Brexit summit |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/eu-leaders-set-to-take-tough-stance-in-special-brexit-summit |newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=14 May 2017}}</ref> negotiating guidelines prepared by the [[President of the European Council]].<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29-euco-brexit-guidelines/ |last= |first= |date=29 April 2017 |website=Council of the European Union |title=European Council (Art. 50) guidelines for Brexit negotiations |access-date=14 April 2017}}</ref> The guidelines take the view that Article 50 permits a two-phased negotiation, whereby the UK first needs to agree to a financial commitment and to lifelong benefits for EU citizens in Britain, before the EU27 will entertain negotiations on a future relationship.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/eu-brexit-guidelines-document-really-means/ |title=EU Brexit guidelines: What's in the document, and what it really means |last=Foster |first=Peter |date=29 April 2017|newspaper=The Daily Telegraph |access-date=14 May 2017}}</ref> In the requested first phase of the withdrawal negotiation, the EU27 negotiators demanded the UK pay a "[[Brexit divorce bill|divorce bill]]", initially estimated as amounting up to £52bn and then, after additional financial demands from Germany, France, and Poland, amounting to £92bn.<ref>{{cite web |last=Worstall |first=Tim |date=3 May 2017 |title=It Is To Laugh At Their Mistake – EU's Brexit Bill Claim Now At €100 Billion |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/05/03/it-is-to-laugh-at-their-mistake-eus-brexit-bill-claim-now-at-e100-billion/2/#61adde837b74 |website=Forbes |access-date=15 May 2017}}</ref>
Nevertheless, a 4 March 2017 report of the [[European Union Committee]] of the House of Lords, stated that if there is no post-Brexit deal at the end of the two-year negotiating period, the UK could withdraw without payment.<ref name="bbc.co.uk">{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39154218 |title=Brexit: UK 'not obliged' to pay divorce bill say peers |date=4 March 2017 |website=BBC News |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> Similarly, the Prime Minister insisted to EU Commission President Juncker that talks about the future UK-EU relationship should start early and that Britain did not owe any money to the EU under the current treaties.<ref name="auto1">{{cite news |last=Roberts |first=Dan |date=1 May 2017 |title=May dismisses reports of frosty dinner with EU chief as 'Brussels gossip' |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/01/jean-claude-juncker-to-theresa-may-on-brexit-im-10-times-more-sceptical-than-i-was-before |newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=15 May 2017}}</ref>
At 29 April summit, a meeting took place between Michel Barnier and both houses of the Irish parliament on 11 May, where Barnier assured members of [[Dáil Éireann]] and [[Seanad Éireann]] that Europe would "work with you to avoid a hard border".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://news.sky.com/story/eu-chief-tells-ireland-he-will-work-to-avoid-hard-border-post-brexit-10872491|title=Barnier tells Ireland he'll work to avoid hard border post-Brexit|date=11 May 2017|website=Sky News}}</ref> Barnier went on to say that "the Irish border issue would be one of his three priorities in the negotiations", and that "there is always an answer".<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39889292|title=Brexit Irish border answer can be found – EU's Barnier|date=12 May 2017|website=BBC News|access-date=13 May 2017}}</ref>
In May 2017, unflattering details of a four-way meeting between Prime Minister Theresa May, Brexit Minister David Davis, EU Commission President Juncker and his chief-of-staff [[Martin Selmayr]] were leaked to the German newspaper ''Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung'', presumably by Martin Selmayr.<ref name="auto4">{{cite news |last=Bush |first=Stephen |date=2 May 2017 |title=Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker's dinner leaked because no-one thinks Brexit will work |url=http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/05/theresa-may-and-jean-claude-junckers-dinner-leaked-because-no-one-thinks |newspaper=New Statesman |access-date=15 May 2017}}</ref> According to the leaked description, Juncker claimed that Theresa May was "living in another galaxy" when suggesting that British and EU migrant rights could be rapidly negotiated and agreed in the course of June 2017. German Chancellor Angela Merkel concurred the next day by stating that there were "illusions" on the British side.<ref name="auto1" /> A few days later, Juncker disclaimed responsibility and called the leak a mistake, ''Der Spiegel'' magazine reported that Angela Merkel was annoyed with Juncker for the leak, while European Council President Tusk admonished participants to use discretion during the negotiations.<ref>{{cite web |title=Juncker's jibes continue after Tusk calls for calm |quote=In order to succeed we need discretion, moderation and a maximum of goodwill. |last=Stone |first=Mark |url=http://news.sky.com/story/tusk-warns-over-brexit-emotions-as-juncker-takes-another-swipe-10864632 |website=Sky News |date=6 May 2017 |accessdate=15 May 2017}}</ref> The background for German nervousness allegedly is the possibility that Britain may veto EU budget increases, which for example in the immediate term amount to 4 billion euros. A continued British veto would have far-reaching consequences and "will hurt us" according to German MEP Jens Geier.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/angela-merkel-veraergert-ueber-jean-claude-juncker-nach-brexit-dinner-a-1146299.html |title= Treffen mit May: Merkel verärgert über Juncker nach Brexit-Dinner |trans-title= Meeting with May: Merkel annoyed with Juncker after Brexit dinner |newspaper=[[Der Spiegel]] |language=de |date=6 May 2017 |accessdate=15 May 2017}}</ref>
On 22 May 2017, the Council of the EU authorised its negotiators to start the Brexit talks and it adopted its negotiating directives.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/05/22-brexit-negotiating-directives/ |title=Council (Art 50) authorises the start of Brexit talks and adopts negotiating directives |website=European Council}}</ref> The first day of talks took place on 19 June, where Davis and Barnier agreed to prioritise the question of residency rights, while Davis conceded that a discussion of the Northern Irish border would have to await future trade agreements.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/19/uk-caves-in-to-eu-demand-to-agree-divorce-bill-before-trade-talks |title=Brexit: UK caves in to EU demand to agree divorce bill before trade talks |date=19 June 2017 |newspaper=The Guardian |access-date=20 June 2017}}</ref>
== Negotiation for withdrawal agreement ==
===2017===
{{main|Brexit negotiations in 2017}}
Brexit negotiations began on 29 March 2017 when the United Kingdom served the withdrawal notice under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. This started a two-year negotiation period.
===2018===
{{main|Brexit negotiations in 2018}}
The UK government published several proposals during 2018, including the [[Chequers plan]] which sought to serve as the basis of the UK-EU trade deal. Negotiations over the [[Irish border question]] and the [[Irish backstop]] were frequently central to the debate around the withdrawal agreement.
===2019===
{{main|Brexit negotiations in 2019}}
Upon the approaching end of the two-year negotiation period, in March 2019, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Theresa May and European leaders negotiated a delay for the Parliament of the United Kingdom to approve the proposed withdrawal treaty, moving the end of the negotiating period to 12 April 2019. In the evening of 10 April May agreed to the EU proposal to extend the period to 31 October 2019, with an option to terminate UK membership earlier if the withdrawal agreement passes the UK Parliament. Under this extension, the UK must take part in European elections (scheduled for May 2019) or leave on 1 June without a withdrawal agreement.
== Financial settlement ==
{{main|Brexit divorce bill}}
Two different legal approaches arose in determining the financial element of the [[Brexit withdrawal agreement]] and (at least initially) the UK and EU negotiators differed on which would be the more appropriate.<ref name=independent220917>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-divorce-bill-payment-michel-barnier-david-davis-backtracking-brussels-a7934296.html |title=Britain is 'backtracking' on its Brexit divorce bill commitments, EU's chief negotiator warns |date=7 September 2017|newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=22 September 2017}}</ref> From Michel Barnier's point of view, the budget contributions that were agreed by 28 member states have to be paid by 28 member states, until the end of that budget period.<ref name="independent220917" /> David Davis said that the "UK wants to go through the Brexit bill line-by-line to work out what it owes the EU."<ref name=independent220917 /> A leaving state is legally obliged to contribute to the EU budget beyond its membership period or to continue to honour the commitments it made during the (pre-Brexit) budget setting process.<ref name=independent220917 />
The leaders of France and Germany both stated that the UK would need to agree to terms regarding departure before discussing future relationships.<ref>{{cite news |url= http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4359418/PM-gathers-Cabinet-ahead-Article-50-triggered.html |title=Security threats, insults and a £50billion divorce bill: Merkel and Hollande warn of painful Brexit as they reject Britain's call for early trade talks – while PM threatens to cut intelligence ties if we get a bad deal as she triggers Article 50 |newspaper=Daily Mail |date=29 March 2017}}</ref> This has been reinforced by EU27 guidelines issued to the remaining 27 countries.<ref name="Sky313">{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/european-union-to-reveal-its-brexit-negotiating-approach-10818836 |title=Brexit EU guidelines: UK told settle divorce bill before talking trade deals |website=Sky News |date=31 March 2017}}</ref> The UK has signalled that it may consider paying the EU to attain preferential access to the [[European Single Market]] and may offer to pay liabilities on a moral and co-operative basis, even if not legally obliged to do so, to secure a preferential working relationship with the EU.<ref>{{cite news |title=David Davis suggests UK could pay for single market access |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/01/brexit-secretary-suggests-uk-would-consider-paying-for-single-market-access |newspaper=The Guardian |date=1 December 2016 |accessdate=2 April 2017}}</ref>
In March 2017 the [[Bruegel (institution)|Bruegel think tank]] estimated that the UK would need to pay at least €25.4 billion, but the method of calculation is debatable and their calculations using seven different methods produced estimates between €30 and €45 billion.<ref name="IT303">{{cite news |url=http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/uk-s-brexit-bill-likely-to-be-well-under-60bn-says-think-tank-1.3030853 |title= UK's Brexit bill likely to be well under €60bn, says think tank |newspaper=The Irish Times |date=30 March 2017}}</ref>
Speaking on 20 April 2017, Antonio Tajani said that it was too early to quantify the amount the UK would need to pay and that it was not a bill to leave the EU, it was money needed for farmers and small businesses.<ref name=Sky204/>
=== House of Lords report ===
{{Quote box
|quote ="27. It may seem intuitive that when the UK leaves the EU, it leaves behind both the responsibilities and benefits of membership. However, this does not take account of the complexity of the UK's participation in the EU, nor of the procedures for agreeing current and future budgets, which involve mutual commitments projected many years into the future. ...33. The range of values in circulation for the UK's potential 'exit bill' indicates that the absolute sum of any posited settlement is hugely speculative. Almost every element is subject to interpretation."
|source =HL Paper 125, 4 March 2017, European Union Committee 15th sessional report, ''Brexit and the EU budget '', Chapter 3, ''Potential demands''.[https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/12506.htm#_idTextAnchor024]
|align = right
|width = 20%
}}
A March 2017 House of Lords report acknowledges that the EU may claim for (1) part of the current budget (which runs from 2014 to 2020) post March 2019, because it was approved by the UK (2) part of the EU future commitments which amount to €200 billion and (3) a contribution if the UK is to continue with access to some EU programmes.<ref name="HoL317">{{cite journal |url=http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7886 |title=The UK's contribution to the EU budget |website=House of Lords |date=16 March 2017|last1=Keep |first1=Matthew }}</ref> The report concluded that the UK had no legal obligation to make "exit" payments to the EU if there was no post Brexit deal.<ref>{{cite web |title=Brexit and the EU Budget |url=https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/125/125.pdf |website=House of Lords |date=4 March 2017 |accessdate=2 April 2017}}</ref><ref name="bbc.co.uk"/>
Discussing financial and legal complexities involved in negotiating withdrawal, including settlement of outstanding financial liabilities and division of assets, the report mentions (paragraph 15) that the EU budget is funded by revenue drawn from various sources, governed by the EU's Own Resources Decision (ORD), which was made part of UK law by the [[European Union (Finance) Act 2015]].<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/32/pdfs/ukpgaen_20150032_en.pdf |title=European Union (Finance) Act 2015, Explanatory Notes |website=UK Government}}</ref> The revenue includes contributions from import duties and [[VAT]] collected by member states. The report also mentions the EU [[Multiannual Financial Framework]] for controlling the annual expenditure.
=== Assets and liabilities ===
The EU has considerable assets including buildings, equipment and financial instruments, and there is a potential claim by the UK for a portion of these assets.<ref name=IT303/> [[Boris Johnson]], the UK's [[Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs|Foreign Secretary]], commenting on the Brexit "divorce bill" in May 2017 stated that the valuable EU assets the UK has paid for over the years should be properly valued, and that there were good arguments for including them in the negotiations.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-says-brussels-should-pay-preposterous-brexit-bill-10875068 |title=Boris Johnson says Brussels should [not] pay 'preposterous' Brexit bill |date=13 May 2017 |website=Sky News|access-date=13 May 2017}}</ref>
The [[Bank of England]] (BoE) has invested in the [[European Central Bank]] (ECB) amounting to 14.3374%, representing paid up capital of €55.5 million. The BoE does not participate in any profits (or losses) of the ECB.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/orga/capital/html/index.en.html |title=Capital subscription |website=European Central Bank |date=1 January 2019}}</ref> The BoE has also made loans to the ECB. The ECB set up the [[European Financial Stability Facility]] in 2010, which has a borrowing facility of €440bn and in addition used a guarantee from the [[European Commission]] and the [[Budget of the European Union]] as collateral to borrow a further €60bn. The UK withdrawal will affect the ECB.
The EU has a pension liability of €64 billion (which includes current and former British MEPs as well as current and former employees of the Institutions).<ref name=HoL317/>
The UK benefits from a [[UK rebate|rebate]] which reduces its contribution to the [[EU budget]]. The rebate is paid a year in arrears, accordingly the 2019 rebate would be payable in 2020.<ref name=HoL317/>
=== Position paper ===
The EU drafted an 11-page position paper setting out the essential principles for a financial settlement and the methodology for calculating the obligation but does not estimate the final obligation.<ref name="Painstaking">{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/30/painstaking-detail-brexit-process-revealed-eu-documents |title=Painstaking detail of Brexit process revealed in EU documents |first=Jennifer |last=Rankin |date=30 May 2017|newspaper=The Guardian |accessdate=23 June 2017}}</ref>
On 11 December 2017, Theresa May confirmed that the UK and the EU had agreed “the scope of commitments, and methods for valuations and adjustments to those values.”<ref>{{cite web|url=https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-divorce-bill/|title=The EU "divorce bill"|date=15 November 2018|accessdate=23 March 2019}}</ref>
The UK Government's estimate of the financial settlement in March 2019 is £37.8 billion (€41.8 billion).<ref>{{cite web|title=Economic and Fiscal Outlook|publisher=[[Office for Budget Responsibility]]|url=https://cdn.obr.uk/March-2019_EFO_Web-Accessible.pdf|page=111|date=March 2019|accessdate=24 March 2019}}</ref>
== UK citizens elsewhere in the EU and other EU citizens in the UK ==
Concerns have been raised by UK citizens who live in other EU countries, and by citizens from those countries who live in the UK. In May 2017, [[Michel Barnier]] stated: "Currently around 3.2 million EU citizens work and live in the UK, and 1.2 million British citizens work and live in the EU."<ref>{{cite web |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-1236_en.htm |title=Press release – Speech by Michel Barnier at the 7th State of the Union Conference, European University Institute, Florence |last= |first= |date=5 May 2017 |website=European Commission|access-date=7 May 2017}}</ref>
Issues include rights of movement, citizenship, abode, education, social support and medical treatment, and the payment of pensions; and the extent to which these rights apply to family members.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/may-expected-to-challenge-right-of-eu-citizens-to-bring-family-to-britain-non-european-spouses-brexit |title=May expected to challenge right of EU citizens to bring family to Britain |last=Travis |first=Alan |date=3 May 2017|newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=4 May 2017|last2=Roberts |first2=Dan|issn=0261-3077}}</ref> Considerations for UK citizens resident in an EU27 country include their rights to work or live in a different EU27 country.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/joint-technical-note-on-the-comparison-of-eu-uk-positions-on-citizens-rights |title=Joint technical note on the comparison of EU-UK positions on citizens' rights |website=Department for Exiting the European Union |date=20 July 2017 |access-date=21 July 2017}}</ref> Beyond the 27 EU countries, workers have certain [[Freedom of movement for workers in the European Union|freedom of movement]] rights to/from Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland.
"Associate citizenship", suggested by EU27 negotiator Guy Verhofstadt, would allow UK nationals to volunteer individually for EU citizenship, enabling them to continue to work and live on the continent. Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, is not opposed to the idea.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Brexit/EU-president-not-opposed-to-associate-citizenship-plan |title=EU president 'not opposed' to associate citizenship plan |website=Connexion France |date=31 March 2017}}</ref>
Antonio Tajani spoke after a meeting with Theresa May on 20 April 2017, saying "the issue of reciprocal EU citizen rights should be negotiated 'immediately' with a view to getting an agreement by the end of the year."<ref name=Sky204/> The European Commission published a position paper on "Essential Principles on Citizens' Rights" on 12 June 2017, proposing that current and future family members of European nationals in the UK would keep their rights to settle in their residence country at any time after Britain's withdrawal.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/position-paper-essential-principles-citizens-rights_en |title=Position paper transmitted to the UK: essential principles on citizens' rights |last= |first= |date=12 June 2017 |website=European Commission|access-date=22 June 2017}}</ref> Speaking in advance of publication of the paper, David Davis described the demands as "ridiculously high".<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-negotiations-latest-david-davis-eu-demands-citizens-rights-ridiculously-high-european-union-a7762986.html |title=David Davis says EU demands on citizens' rights are 'ridiculously high' |last=Bulman |first=May |date=30 May 2017 |newspaper=The Independent|access-date=22 June 2017 }}</ref> The UK government published their policy paper "Safeguarding the position of EU citizens in the UK and UK nationals in the EU" on 26 June.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/safeguarding-the-position-of-eu-citizens-in-the-uk-and-uk-nationals-in-the-eu |title=Safeguarding the position of EU citizens in the UK and UK nationals in the EU |last= |first= |date=26 June 2017 |website=UK Government |access-date=26 June 2017}}</ref> The policy paper proposed that EU citizens living in Britain will be required to apply for inclusion on a "settled status" register if they wish to remain in the country after Brexit.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/26/eu-citizens-living-in-uk-must-apply-for-special-id-card-after-brexit |title=Brexit: EU citizens living in UK will have to join special ID register |last=Travis |first=Alan |date=26 June 2017 |newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=27 June 2017|issn=0261-3077}}</ref>
By the end of September 2017 progress had been made on several of the 60 points which became green, while 13 out of the 60 points remain red. Three points (points #14, #15, and #16 related to monitoring and CJEU) have to be addressed at governance level. Few points remain to be clarified (that is yellow).<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/table_-_citizens_rights.pdf |title=Comparison of EU/UK Positions on Citizens' Rights |date=28 September 2017 |website=European Commission |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> On this basis European parliament will have to assess if sufficient progress has been made.
As of October 2018, UK residents in the EU have not yet had their fates decided on. On 16 October 2018, just before departing for the EU27–UK summit in Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking to the German parliament, asked "How do we treat the 100,000 British citizens in Germany on the day after Brexit if there is no deal?", without supplying an answer.<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/merkel-regierungserklaerung-zum-brexit-1.4174193 |title=Merkels vier Minuten für den Brexit [Merkel's four minutes for Brexit] |last=Al-Serori |first=Leila |date=17 October 2018 |newspaper=Sueddeutsche Zeitung |access-date=17 October 2018|language=de|issn=}}</ref>
=== Implications ===
The general rule for losing EU citizenship is that European citizenship is lost if member state nationality is lost,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.ilecproject.eu/sites/default/files/GUIDELINES%20INVOLUNTARY%20LOSS%20OF%20EUROPEAN%20CITIZENSHIP%20.pdf |title=Guidelines: Involuntary Loss of European Citizenship |date=2015 |website=European Union |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> but the automatic loss of EU citizenship as a result of a member state withdrawing from the EU is the subject of debate.<ref name="ir.lawnet.fordham.edu">{{cite journal |url=http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2324&context=ilj |title=The Withdrawal Clause of the Lisbon Treaty in the Light of EU Citizenship (Between Disintegration and Integration) |last=Rieder |first=Clemens M. |journal=Fordham International Law Journal |volume=37 |issue=1 |date=2013 |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> The situation of a person acquiring EU citizenship when the UK joined the EU in 1973 compared to a person born in the UK after 1973 and was therefore born into EU citizenship, may differ. It may be necessary for the ECJ to rule on these issues.
In a 2017 decision, the ECJ ruled that the parent(s) of a child with EU nationality are entitled to rights of residence, even if both are non-EU citizens.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/8212/non-european-parents-of-european-child-have-eu-right-of-residency |title=Non-European parents of European child have EU right of residency |newspaper=Brussels Times |date=11 May 2017 }}{{Dead link|date=March 2019 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref> This may have consequential effects for UK residents who have young children and wish to live in the EU27 territory post Brexit, but this remains to be tested.
=== Immigration and mobility ===
Until the UK effectively withdraws from the EU in 2019 or at another agreed date, the current system of free movement of labour between the EU27 and the UK remains in place.
The report of the House of Commons [[Exiting the European Union Select Committee|Exiting the European Union Committee]] on ''The Government's negotiating objectives'', published in April 2017,<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmexeu/1125/112502.htm |title=3rd Report – The Government's negotiating objectives: the White Paper (HC 1125) |date=4 April 2017 |website=House of Commons |access-date=4 April 2017}}</ref> proposed (paragraphs 20 and 123) that the future system for EU migration should meet the needs of different sectors of the UK economy, including those employing scientists, bankers, vets, care workers, health service professionals and seasonal agriculture workers.
[[Theresa May]], answering press questions on 5 April 2017, commented that the free movement of labour would not end in March 2019; an implementation period of possibly five years would give business and government time to adjust.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4381026/Don-t-expect-EU-free-movement-end-five-years.html |title=Don't expect EU free movement to end for at least five years, May warns: PM says there will be an 'implementation period' after Britain leaves |newspaper=Daily Mail |date=5 April 2017}}</ref>
The UK currently charges an annual levy of up to £1,000 for each non-EU citizen employed within the UK.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/uk-visa-sponsorship-employers/immigration-skills-charge |title=UK visa sponsorship for employers: Immigration skills charge |date= |website=UK Government |access-date=22 May 2017}}</ref> Proposals are under consideration to increase this 'immigration skills charge' to £2,000 p.a. and to implement a similar levy on EU citizens employed in the UK.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/18/news/economy/foreign-worker-charge-theresa-may/index.html |title=Americans are going to find it much harder to get a job in Britain |website=CNN |date=18 May 2017}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-uk-employers-pay-1000-per-eu-skilled-worker-european-immigration-skills-levy-a7521626.html |title=UK employers would have to pay a £1,000-a-year fee per EU skilled worker after Brexit under new government plans |newspaper=The Independent |date=11 January 2017}}</ref>
According to an unconfirmed newspaper report, a leaked Home Office paper has a proposal that the UK will end the free movement of labour of low-skilled workers immediately after Brexit, focusing on highly skilled EU workers instead.<ref name=":0">{{Cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/sep/05/leaked-document-reveals-uk-brexit-plan-to-deter-eu-immigrants |title=Leaked document reveals UK Brexit plan to deter EU immigrants |last=Hopkins |first=Nick |date=5 September 2017|newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=6 September 2017 |last2=Travis |first2=Alan|issn=0261-3077}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-eu-migrants-brexit-plans-to-cut-back-on-post-brexit-report/ |title=UK plans to cut back on EU migrants post Brexit: report |date=5 September 2017 |website=Politico.eu |access-date=6 September 2017}}</ref> The proposal would limit lower-skilled EU migrants' residency permits to a maximum of two years, and the implementation of a new immigration system ending the right to settle in Britain for most European migrants while placing tough restrictions on their rights to bring over family members.<ref name=":0" /> Those in "high-skilled occupations" could be given permission to work in the UK for a period of three to five years.<ref name=":0" />
== Migration ==
Immigration is one topic requiring partnership between EU and UK, as according to Theresa May, "Mass migration and terrorism are but two examples of the challenges to our shared European interests and values that we can only solve in partnership".<ref name="Spectator9-17">{{cite magazine |url=https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/09/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full-text/ |title=Theresa May's Florence speech on Brexit, full text |date=22 September 2017 |magazine=[[The Spectator]] |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
In the context of Brexit, the question of migration might contain two subtopics: on one hand migrations between EU including UK and third countries which might be dealt with at a local level; and on the other hand migration between EU and UK once UK has become a third country which was discussed for the withdrawal agreement.
== European Court of Justice (ECJ) ==
The concept of [[European Court of Justice]] competence creates complications. Some pro-Brexiteers believe the Court of Justice might be completely removed from the UK landscape. Various other opinions consider that the Court of Justice or some equivalent should be able to rule on remaining issues after Brexit (for instance between a European and a British stakeholder), at least in respect of the TEU ([[Treaty on European Union]]), [[Citizenship of the European Union|European Union citizens]], or access to the [[European Single Market]].<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-ministers-invincible-ignorance-european-court-sir-david-edward-theresa-may-a7656826.html |title='Invincible ignorance' of Theresa May's Brexit-backing ministers condemned by former judge |date=29 March 2017|newspaper=The Independent}}</ref>
After the 2017 negotiations, in February 2018 the European Commission Draft Withdrawal Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement.pdf |title=European Commission Draft Withdrawal Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community |date=28 February 2018 |website=European Commission |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> consider for instance that:
* "The Court of Justice of the European Union shall continue to have jurisdiction for any proceedings brought before it by the United Kingdom or against the United Kingdom before the end of the transition period. That jurisdiction shall extend to all stages of proceedings, including appeal proceedings before the Court of Justice and proceedings before the General Court after a case has been referred back to it."
* "The Court of Justice of the European Union shall continue to have jurisdiction to give preliminary rulings on requests from courts and tribunals of the United Kingdom referred to it before the end of the transition period."
== Sectoral issues ==
Documents setting out how the Brexit will affect parts of the [[British economy]] were set up for the government, "the most comprehensive picture of our economy on this issue" containing "excruciating detail" according to Brexit Secretary David Davis.<!--<ref name=Bloomberg21dec2017>--> The ministers were reluctant to [[publish]] them but in November 2017, a vote in Parliament allowed lawmakers to read them under controlled conditions to avoid [[news leak]]s.<!--<ref name=Bloomberg21dec2017>--> They were released online on 21 December 2017 but lawmakers were unimpressed: "Most of this could be found on [[Wikipedia]] or with a quick [[Google search]]", said Labour's [[David Lammy]], "these documents [were made] in a couple of weeks. They look like copy and paste essay crises."<ref name=Bloomberg21dec2017>{{cite web |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-20/may-heads-to-poland-to-seek-brexit-ally-after-firing-her-deputy |title=May Lands in Poland to Seek Brexit Ally After Firing Deputy |first=Robert |last=Hutton |date=21 December 2017 |website=Bloomberg}}</ref>
=== Trade ===
Without a trade agreement in place, UK trade with the EU would be governed by the World Trade Organisation's [[Bali Package]]. This would lead to common tariffs and [[non-tariff barriers to trade|non-tariff barriers]] being imposed by the EU27 upon the UK's access to the [[European Single Market]], because the Market is also a [[customs union]]. However, the UK would then have an opportunity to control immigration as well as develop its own trade regulations.
The UK is not permitted to hold trade talks until after Brexit is concluded, however the UK can do preparatory work with other countries regarding the UK's future trading relationships; this is not to the liking of some EU27 countries.<ref name=POL114/> Before Britain leaves the EU, they may put trade agreements in place with non-EU countries.<ref>{{cite report |title=Brexit, Ireland and Northern Ireland |publisher=Constitutional Conundrums |date=2016}}</ref>
Only the EU can act in areas where it has exclusive competence, such as the customs union and common commercial policy. In those areas member states may not act independently.<ref name="gov.uk">{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/279629/bis-13-865-balance-of-competences-review-trade-and-investment.pdf |title=Review Of The Balance Of Competences Between The United Kingdom And The European Union |date=May 2013 |website=[[Department for Business, Innovation and Skills]] |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> The UK can still negotiate its own bilateral investment protection treaties subject to Commission authorisation.<ref name="gov.uk"/>
Strategic controls on military goods are primarily a member state competence. As a result, member states themselves negotiate multilateral or bilateral agreements on the strategic aspects of trade in defense goods.<ref name="gov.uk"/>
The EU27 wish to exclude the UK from sitting in on trade negotiations held by the EU during the period ending March 2019, seeing the UK as a competitor. Theresa May rejected this idea, saying "While we're members of the European Union we would expect our obligations but also our rights to be honoured in full."<ref name="POL114">{{cite web |url=http://www.politico.eu/article/trade-talks-for-non-british-eyes-only/ |title=Trade talks: For non-British eyes only? |website=Politico.eu |date=10 April 2017}}</ref>
==== Regional foods ====
{{See also|List of United Kingdom food and drink products with protected status}}
The [[Geographical indications and traditional specialities in the European Union|Geographical indications and traditional specialties in the European Union]], known as protected designation of origin (PDO) is applied internationally via bilateral agreements. Without an agreement with the EU27, UK producers of products such as the [[Cornish Pasty|Cornish pasty]], [[Scotch whisky]] and [[Jersey Royals|Jersey Royal]] potatoes are at risk of being copied.
==== Fisheries ====
The EU27 have stated that UK fish suppliers could lose tariff-free access to the continent unless EU countries have continued access to UK waters after Brexit.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.ft.com/content/958c7e28-0f1c-11e7-b030-768954394623 |title=EU fishing fleet urges post-Brexit access to UK seas |newspaper=Financial Times |date=22 March 2017|url-access=subscription}}</ref>
==== Agriculture ====
The Irish agricultural sector is heavily dependent on UK markets for its exports.
=== Financial services ===
==== Banks ====
Investment banks may want to have new or expanded offices up and running inside the EU27 bloc before the UK's departure in March 2019, with [[Frankfurt]] and [[Dublin]] the possible favourites.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-21/what-the-biggest-banks-are-planning-as-may-sets-brexit-timing |title=What the biggest banks are planning once Brexit starts |website=Bloomberg |date=21 March 2017}}</ref> Ireland's investment arm, IDA Ireland, witnessed an increase in inquiries from London-based financial groups considering to open up on an office in Dublin by the end of 2016, mostly coming from North American companies. In May 2017, JP Morgan became the first major bank to officially choose Dublin to transfer some of its personnel and operations from its London office.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.the-businessreport.com/article/can-dublin-become-eus-next-finance-hub/ |title=Can Dublin become the EU's next finance hub? |website=The Business Report |date=January 2017 |accessdate=14 July 2017}}</ref>
==== Insurance ====
[[Lloyd's of London]] have confirmed that they will open a subsidiary in Brussels, hoping to ensure continuation of their continental business which generates 11% of its premiums.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39441035 |title=Insurer Lloyd's of London confirms new Brussels subsidiary |website=BBC News |date=30 March 2017}}</ref>
==== Asset management companies ====
The situation may be different when it comes to the [[fund management]] industry, as British asset owners, notably UK [[pension fund]]s, often constitute an incommensurate share of total turnover for German, French, Dutch and other [[Continental European]] asset managers.
This imbalance could potentially give Britain some negotiating leverage e.g. power of [[retorsion]] in case the EU attempts to impose an abrupt cancellation of the mutually-binding obligations and advantages pertaining to the [[Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004]] (''"fund passporting"''). Research conducted by the [[World Pensions & Investments Forum|World Pensions Council (WPC)]] shows that {{quote|"Assets owned by UK pension funds are more than 11 times bigger than those of all German and French pension funds put together […] If need be, at the first hint of threat to the City of London, Her Majesty's Government should be in a position to respond very forcefully."<ref>{{cite journal |title= Beyond Brexit: Britain, Europe and the Pension Wealth of Nations |url=https://www.academia.edu/26810948 |journal=Pensions Age |date=July 2016 |page=44 |accessdate=11 July 2016|last1=Firzli |first1=M. Nicolas J. }}</ref>}}
==== Stock exchanges ====
The [[London Stock Exchange]] issued a warning over a proposal by the EU to allow euro-denominated transactions to be cleared only within the EU [[eurozone]], claiming it would increase business costs by €100bn over 5 years and isolate the euro capital market.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/warning-to-brussels-over-stripping-city-of-euro-clearing-10888828 |title=Warning to Brussels over stripping City of euro clearing |website=Sky News |date=22 May 2017}}</ref>
=== Security ===
The letter of 29 March 2017 giving the UK's [[United Kingdom invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union|notice of intention to withdraw]] from the EU stated "In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened."<ref name="notificationletter" /> This was seen by some as a threat.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/29/brexit-eu-condemns-mays-blackmail-over-security-cooperation |title=Don't blackmail us over security, EU warns May |last= |first= |date=30 March 2017|newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=1 April 2017}}</ref> On 31 March, [[Boris Johnson]], the UK Foreign Secretary, confirmed that the "UK commitment to EU security is unconditional".<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/30/uk-article-50-letter-european-diplomats-threat-security-cooperation |title=Boris Johnson joins UK attempts to calm Brexit security concerns |last= |first= |date=31 March 2017|newspaper=The Guardian |access-date=1 April 2017}}</ref>
The call by the United States to other members of [[NATO]] to increase their defence expenditure to the 2% of GDP level coincides in timing with Brexit. The UK is the second largest contributor to NATO defence, one of only five to meet the 2% level and one of only two EU members who have nuclear weapons. The possibility of a new Franco-German partnership to fill the vacuum left by Britain has been raised as a possibility and post Brexit an EU military headquarters, previously vetoed by the UK, may be created.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.france24.com/en/20170403-france-eu-nato-boost-military-defense-spending-brexit-us-warnings-isolationism |title=EU, French militaries prepare to go it alone after Brexit, US warnings |website=France24 |date=3 April 2017}}</ref> The UK is fully committed to NATO.
=== Academic research ===
{{Main|Brexit and arrangements for science and technology}}
The UK government's negotiating policy when the negotiating period started on 29 March 2017 included remaining at the vanguard of science and innovation, and seeking continued close collaboration with the UK's European partners.
== British Overseas Territories and Crown dependencies ==
In the [[Great Repeal Bill 2016|Great Repeal Bill]] [[white paper]] published on 30 March 2017, the UK government stated "The Government is committed to engaging with the Crown Dependencies, Gibraltar and the other Overseas Territories as we leave the EU."<ref name="GRBWP">{{cite web |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/604514/Great_repeal_bill_white_paper_print.pdf |title=Legislating for the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union |website=Department for Exiting the European Union |date=30 March 2017}}</ref>{{rp|ch.5}}
=== Overseas territories ===
[[Robin Walker]] [[Member of Parliament|MP]], a junior minister at the Department for Exiting the European Union, is responsible for managing the relationship between the overseas territories and Parliament in their discussion with the EU27.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.ft.com/content/225fe8b6-ed59-11e6-930f-061b01e23655?mhq5j=e1 |title=British overseas territories set out their Brexit priorities |newspaper=Financial Times |accessdate=23 June 2017|url-access=subscription}}</ref>
==== Gibraltar ====
{{Main|Gibraltar after Brexit}}
Brexit raised issues around [[sovereignty]] for [[Gibraltar#Governance|Gibraltar]], the only [[British Overseas Territories|British Overseas Territory]] in the EU.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu |title=Spain drops plan to impose veto if Scotland tries to join EU |first=Jennifer |last=Rankin |date=2 April 2017|newspaper=The Guardian}}</ref> Gibraltarians voted to stay in the European Union by 96%.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/01/world/europe/gibraltar-brexit-spain-britain-european-union.html |title=Spain's Desire for Gibraltar Complicates 'Brexit' Talks With E.U. |first=Stephen |last=Castle |date=1 April 2017|newspaper=The New York Times}}</ref> Spain claims sovereignty over Gibraltar; however, in 2002 [[Gibraltar sovereignty referendum, 2002|Gibraltarians voted 99% to keep British sovereignty]].
The EU27 draft guidelines allow Spain a veto over any effect that the Brexit agreement has as regards Gibraltar. The guidelines state: "After the United Kingdom leaves the Union, no agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without the agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom."<ref>{{cite web |url=http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-guidelines-eu-hands-spain-power-over-gibraltars-future-10819502 |title= Brexit guidelines: EU hands Spain power over Gibraltar's future |website=Sky News |date=31 March 2017}}</ref>
=== Crown dependencies ===
The [[Crown dependencies]] are not part of either the UK or the EU. They have a unique constitutional relationship both with the UK and, as encapsulated in Protocol 3 to the UK's [[Treaty of Accession 1972|Treaty of Accession]], with the EU.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/136/136.pdf |title=Brexit: the Crown Dependencies |website=House of Lords |date=23 March 2017}}</ref> They have no voting rights in EU or UK referenda or elections and no international voice, the UK government having the responsibility to act for the dependencies on foreign matters. [[Oliver Heald]] [[Queen's Counsel|QC]] [[Member of Parliament|MP]] is responsible for managing the relationship between the Islands and Parliament in their discussion with the EU27.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://guernseypress.com/news/2017/04/08/protecting-finance-and-legal-sectors-a-priority-for-minister/ |title=Protecting finance and legal sectors a priority for minister |newspaper=Guernsey Press |date=8 April 2017}}</ref>
== The "no deal" scenario ==
The [[European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018]] which became law in June 2018 allows for various outcomes including no negotiated settlement. It authorises the government to bring into force, by [[Statutory instrument (UK)|order]] made under section 25, the provisions that fix "exit day" and the repeal of the European Communities Act 1972, but exit day must be the same day and time as when the EU Treaties are to cease to apply to the UK.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit/negotiations/what-is-exit-day-dispelling-misconceptions-about-the-extension-of-article-50/ |title=''What is “exit day”?'' House of Commons Library, 19 March 2019 |publisher=Commonslibrary.parliament.uk |date=2019-03-19 |accessdate=2019-03-26}}</ref>
If no withdrawal agreement is in place at the end of the period set under Article 50, in such a "no deal" scenario, there will be no transition period and EU law (in particular, the Single Market and Customs Union) will cease to apply to the UK/EU relationship.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/priorities/20160701TST34439/20160707STO36103/brexit-negotiations-deciding-new-eu-uk-relations |title=Brexit negotiations: deciding new EU-UK relations |date=7 July 2016 |website=European Parliament |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref><ref name="ReferenceA">{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44887513 |title=Reality Check: The EU's 'no deal' preparations |first=Chris |last=Morris |date=19 July 2018 |website=BBC News}}</ref>
The EU would prefer a Brexit with a deal.<ref name="ReferenceA" /> Nonetheless, even without a deal, the Commission believes that UK and EU may soon relaunch trade negotiations.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-negotiation-no-deal-european-commission-publishes-briefing-planning/ |title=European Commission publishes briefing on no-deal Brexit planning |date=19 July 2018 |website=Politico.eu}}</ref>
On 28 February 2019, Parliament approved by 502 votes Labour former minister Yvette Cooper's bid to pin Theresa May to commitments including allowing MPs to delay Brexit if her deal is rejected again.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://metro.co.uk/2019/02/27/jeremy-corbyns-brexit-vision-defeated-majority-83-8772804/ |title=Jeremy Corbyn's Brexit vision defeated again by majority of 83 | Metro News |publisher=Metro.co.uk |date=27 February 2019 |accessdate=12 March 2019}}</ref>
On 4 April 2019, the European Parliament voted to confirm UK citizens will continue to benefit from visa-free travel to member states after a no-deal Brexit. MEPs voted 502 votes to 81 in favour of the concession – provided EU nationals enjoy the same conditions when travelling to the UK.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-visa-free-travel-no-deal-vote-eu-parliament-passport-a8854371.html |title=BREXIT: EU PARLIAMENT VOTES TO GIVE UK CITIZENS VISA-FREE TRAVEL IN EVENT OF NO-DEAL |website="The Independent" |accessdate=4 April 2019}}</ref>
=== "No deal": possibility and likelihood ===
In June 2017, a Parliamentary inquiry concluded that "the possibility of 'no deal' is real enough to justify planning for it. The Government has produced no evidence, either to this inquiry or in its White Paper, to indicate that it is giving the possibility of 'no deal' the level of consideration that it deserves, or is contemplating any serious contingency planning. This is all the more urgent if the Government is serious in its assertion that it will walk away from a 'bad' deal."<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmfaff/1077/107702.htm |title=House of Commons - Article 50 negotiations: Implications of 'no deal' - Foreign Affairs Committee |website=UK Parliament |accessdate=23 June 2017}}</ref>
The UK government has consistently said that it will aim for the "best possible deal" but that "no deal is better than a bad deal". This position was restated in the Conservative Party manifesto for the 2017 general election.<ref>''Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2017''. 18 May 2017. pp35-36. "The negotiations will undoubtedly be tough, and there will be give and take on both sides, but we continue to believe that no deal is better than a bad deal for the UK. But we will enter the negotiations in a spirit of sincere cooperation and committed to getting the best deal for Britain."</ref> In July 2017, Michel Barnier said that "a fair deal is better than no deal", because "In the case of Brexit, 'no deal' is a return to a distant past".<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/06/frictionless-trade-impossible-if-uk-leaves-eu-single-market-says-barnier |title=Frictionless trade impossible if UK leaves EU single market, says Barnier |last=Rankin |first=Jennifer |date=6 July 2017|newspaper=The Guardian|access-date=7 July 2017|issn=0261-3077}}</ref>
French Prime Minister [[Édouard Philippe]] said in July 2018: "The more we think the worst should be avoided, the more we think it's not impossible it could eventually happen".<ref name="nytimes.com">{{cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/19/business/europe-brexit-contingencies.html |title=How E.U. Is Getting Ready for Chaos in a Worst-Case Brexit|newspaper=The New York Times |date=19 July 2018}}</ref> That same month, the British (UK) white paper began both sides wondering if the ''no deal scenario'' is more likely rather than possible.<ref name="theguardian.com">{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/eu-assault-on-mays-white-paper-heightens-no-deal-brexit-fears |title=EU assault on May's white paper heightens 'no deal' Brexit fears |first=Daniel |last=Boffey |date=18 July 2018|newspaper=The Guardian}}</ref>
=== "No deal": adverse consequences ===
In June 2017, a "no-deal" Brexit was likened by [[General Council of the Bar]], a lawyers' interest body, to "falling over the cliff-edge".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.barcouncil.org.uk/media-centre/publications/2017/2017/march/the-brexit-papers-second-edition/ |title=The Brexit Papers: Second Edition |website=General Council of the Bar |accessdate=23 June 2017 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170614163952/http://www.barcouncil.org.uk/media-centre/publications/2017/2017/march/the-brexit-papers-second-edition |archive-date=14 June 2017 |dead-url=yes |df=dmy-all }}</ref> According to the IMF, the no deal Brexit could create economic pain across Europe, with no winner.<ref name="no-deal-brexit-imf">{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-would-harm-all-european-countries-warns-imf |title=No-deal Brexit would harm EU countries as well as UK, warns IMF |first=Richard |last=Partington |date=19 July 2018|newspaper=The Guardian}}</ref> The most affected country would be UK, according to the IMF:<ref name="no-deal-brexit-imf" /> the IMF consider that UK and Ireland could lose 4% of their GDP, while close countries such as the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium could lose 1% of GDP.<ref name="no-deal-brexit-imf" />
In September 2017, the BBC reported that there was little evidence of UK government preparations for a "No Deal" scenario: "our government is not behaving like it is really preparing for No Deal – and the EU27 can surely see it."<ref>{{cite web |last1=Cook |first1=Chris |title=Will the government really accept 'No Deal' with the EU? |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41271028 |website=BBC News |date=19 September 2017 |accessdate=21 September 2017}}</ref>
In her 4 October 2017 speech at the Conservative Party Conference, UK Prime Minister Theresa May repeated her position that "no deal is better than a bad deal" and emphasized that "It is our responsibility as a government to prepare for every eventuality. And let me reassure everyone in this hall – that is exactly what we are doing."<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-speech-conference-no-deal-assurance-tories-a7983071.html |title=Theresa May tried to 'reassure' Tories that she is still prepared to leave EU with no Brexit deal |date=4 October 2017|newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref> In her 9 October 2017 statement in the House of Commons, May said that Britain could operate as an "independent trading nation" after Brexit if no trade deal is reached with the EU.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41546701 |title=UK explores 'no deal' Brexit |date=9 October 2017 |website=BBC News |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
The ''no deal'' scenario has been described by [[Nick Timothy]] as leaving the EU [with Britain] in "chaos" or not leaving the bloc at all, which he says would be a "national humiliation" on a par with the [[Suez Crisis]].<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/european-commission-issues-call-for-eu-states-to-get-ready-for-nodeal-brexit-37135023.html |title=European Commission issues call for EU states to get ready for no-deal Brexit |newspaper=Belfast Telegraph}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/european-commission-issues-call-for-eu-states-to-get-ready-for-no-deal-brexit-856373.html |title=European Commission issues call for EU states to get ready for no-deal Brexit |date=19 July 2018|newspaper=Irish Examiner}}</ref>
[[Martin Donnelly (civil servant)|Sir Martin Donnelly]] feels that no deal would be dangerous:<ref name="independent.co.uk1">{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-sir-martin-donnelly-eu-theresa-may-government-economy-single-market-bad-deal-a8000186.html |title=Britain's former top civil servant just warned of the dangers of a 'no deal' Brexit |date=14 October 2017|newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref> while no deal makes trade only dependent on World Trade Organisation terms which do not include services—80% of the British economy—he believes that no deal "could mean an awful lot of legal uncertainty and that's very bad for businesses, for jobs, for investment in Britain".<ref name="independent.co.uk1"/>
In the [[Scottish Centre on European Relations]] paper "Brexit Uncertainty, Scotland and the UK in 2018", a conclusion is reached that the delivery of a no deal Brexit could raise support for a second independence referendum in Scotland.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-scottish-independence-eu-expert-kirsty-hughes-a8000871.html |title=Hard Brexit could trigger new independence referendum, says Scotland's leading EU expert |date=14 October 2017 |newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
Nonetheless, according to Shadow Chancellor [[John McDonnell]] there are enough people in the House of Commons to prevent some no-agreement exit.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-theresa-may-john-mcdonnell-labour-latest-eu-stop-commons-a8001306.html |title=Cross-party alliance 'will stop Theresa May crashing Britain out of the EU with no deal' |date=15 October 2017|newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
According to Dominic Cummings, campaign director of [[Vote Leave]], "If there's no deal, there will be significant problems that were completely avoidable".<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/vote-leave-brexit-chief-dominic-cummings-disaster-eu-european-union-theresa-may-david-davis-a8002426.html |title=The man behind Brexit says it's turning into a disaster |date=16 October 2017|newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
|{{Graph:Chart|width=200|height=200
|xAxisTitle=Agreement
|yAxisTitle=Cost in billions of euros
|legend=Cost for business
|type=stackedrect
|x= With no deal, with deal
|y1= 30, 19
|y2= 35, 16
|yAxisFormat=s
|colors=#ae3C01,#2121ae,#7171fe,#c14A23,#FeFe01,#4674C0,#FeAaA5
|y1Title= UK
|y2Title= EU, not including UK
|yAxisMin=0
}}
|-
| * Source, Olivier Wayman report, ''La Tribune''<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.latribune.fr/economie/union-europeenne/brexit-sans-accord-la-facture-serait-bien-plus-elevee-771448.html |title=Brexit : sans accord, la facture serait bien plus élevée|newspaper=[[La Tribune]] |language=fr |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref> pounds have been converted to euros, on 12 March 2018
|}
Aviation would be particularly affected if the [[European Common Aviation Area]] and [[EU–US Open Skies Agreement]] no longer applied to the UK after a "no-deal" Brexit, since World Trade Organisation rules do not cover that sector,<ref>{{cite news |last1=Gerrard |first1=Bradley |title=With no plan B, Brexit stakes for aviation sector are sky high |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/18/no-plan-b-brexit-stakes-aviation-sector-sky-high/ |newspaper=The Daily Telegraph |date=18 August 2017 |accessdate=21 September 2017}}</ref> implying that the following day a British plane could not land at an EU airport.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/royaume-uni/legislatives-britanniques/brexit-le-resultat-des-legislatives-est-une-mauvaise-nouvelle-car-negocier-avec-un-partenaire-faible-nest-jamais-facile_2230587.html |title=Brexit : le résultat des législatives "est une mauvaise nouvelle" pour le président de la Fondation Robert-Schuman |date=10 June 2017 |website=FranceTVInfo.fr |language=fr |accessdate=23 June 2017}}</ref> UK government said in September 2018 that in case of no deal on aviation, UK would allow EU airlines to use British airports anyway, and expect EU countries to reciprocate.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-notices-aviation-safety/uk-would-allow-eu-airlines-to-fly-in-no-deal-brexit-would-keep-eu-safety-rules-idUSKCN1M41U8|title=UK would allow EU airlines to fly in no-deal Brexit, would keep EU safety rules|access-date=18 October 2018|date=24 September 2018|website=reuters.com}}</ref>
The ''no deal scenario'' could create a disruption in transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union: for instance, with delays generated by the customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls for road transport and ports.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-eu-warns-citizens-prepare-for-worst |title=Barnier welcomes Raab by stressing urgency of Irish border deadline |first1=Daniel |last1=Boffey |first2=Jennifer |last2=Rankin |date=19 July 2018|newspaper=The Guardian}}</ref>
The National Police Coordination Centre has warned that no deal would result in civil disorder at the UK's ports and borders, a "real possibility" of calling upon military assistance, a rise in crime (particularly theft and robbery) and widespread illness and disease following food and drug shortages (including NHS supplies). Police officers who are EU nationals may potentially be unable to hold a warrant card (which would leave the [[Metropolitan Police]] 750 officers short), and the ability for the police to deal with criminality from non-UK residents would be undermined as the UK "falls out of the various treaties such as the [[European arrest warrant]], [[Schengen information system]] and membership of [[Europol]]".<ref>{{cite news |last1=Wheeler |first1=Caroline |title=Police plan for riots and crimewave if there is no-deal Brexit |url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/police-plan-for-riots-and-crimewave-if-there-is-no-deal-brexit-frbbnjjqp |accessdate=9 September 2018 |newspaper=[[The Sunday Times]] |subscription=y |date=9 September 2018 |issn=0140-0460 |oclc=643156226}}</ref> [[Sara Thornton (police officer)|Sara Thornton]] of the [[National Police Chiefs' Council|NPCC]] said, "Existing EU tools allow us to respond quickly and intelligently to crime and terrorism in the UK and the EU – they make us better at protecting the public. The alternatives we are planning to use, where they exist, are without exception slower, more bureaucratic and ultimately less effective."<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/18/police-chiefs-no-deal-brexit-would-mean-loss-crime-fighting-tools|title=Police chiefs: no-deal Brexit would mean loss of crime-fighting tools|newspaper=[[The Guardian]]|access-date=18 October 2018|date=18 September 2018|first1=Vikram|last1=Dodd}}</ref> Finding out if a suspect has criminal convictions will take much longer.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45561527|title=No-deal Brexit 'could make policing harder'|publisher=BBC|access-date=18 October 2018|date=18 September 2018}}</ref>
=== Contingency and preparedness{{Anchor|Yellowhammer}} ===
An EU document on ''Preparedness'' outlines the plans related to various issues (with or without withdrawal agreement), and another on ''Contingency'' describes measures to answer the consequences of a ''No deal''.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/communication-preparing-withdrawal-brexit-preparedness.pdf |title=Preparing for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union on 30 March 2019 |date=19 July 2018 |website=European Commission |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref>
To answer the consequences of a no deal Brexit, some players are involved in contingency planning and preparedness (but not panic).<ref name="nytimes.com"/> To limit the consequences of a ''no deal'' scenario, some companies, such as Airbus and Rolls-Royce, are stockpiling spares.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-wto-march |title=Don't worry, a no-deal Brexit won't be allowed to happen |first=Simon |last=Jenkins |date=19 July 2018 |newspaper=The Guardian}}</ref>
In the Netherlands, around 1,000 customs officials are being recruited to manage the border with UK after the no deal Brexit.<ref name="nytimes.com"/>
In the UK the need for new customs agents is estimated at 5,000.<ref name="nytimes.com"/> In Ireland, the need for new customs agents is estimated at 1,000.<ref name="nytimes.com"/>
The UK is considering converting some part of the M20 motorway into a parking lot for trucks, to manage a possible 17-mile (around 25-kilometer) line of traffic, as planned by the Dover port authority.<ref name="nytimes.com"/>
The EU Commission has published 68 notices to help various players to be aware of the Brexit consequences.<ref name="ReferenceA"/> The Commission is also considering notifying its international partners for international agreements that involved the UK as a member state, in case of no deal.<ref name="ReferenceA"/>
Over the course of August, September and October 2018, the UK Government published a series of technical notices and further guidance on preparing for a "no deal" scenario.<ref name=prepare>Department for Exiting the European Union, [https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-governments-preparations-for-a-no-deal-scenario/uk-governments-preparations-for-a-no-deal-scenario UK government's preparations for a 'no deal' scenario], updated 21 December 2018, accessed 1 January 2019</ref> The UK Treasury department has used the code name "[[Operation Yellowhammer]]" for no-deal contingency planning.<ref name="Ind20180906">{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/operation-yellowhammer-brexit-photo-eu-rail-access-nodeal-secret-paper-latest-document-a8525506.html |title=Operation Yellowhammer: Photo of secret government no-deal Brexit papers reveals questions over 'rail access to the EU |date=6 September 2018 |newspaper=The independent|url-access=limited}}</ref> On 18 December 2018, the UK cabinet agreed to proceed with a further phase of "no deal" planning.<ref name=prepare />
On 25 March 2018, the EU published a press release outlining its preparedness for a possible no-deal scenario,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-1813_en.htm |title=Brexit preparedness: EU completes preparations for possible "no-deal" scenario on 12 April |website=European Commission Press Release Database |date=25 March 2019 |access-date=25 March 2019}}</ref> as well as a factsheet explaining border checks once British citizens become non-EU citizens.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/factsheet_1_travel_en_final.pdf |title=Travelling between the UK and the EU in the event of "No Deal" |website=European Commission |date=March 2019 |access-date=25 March 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/25/brussels-confirms-return-of-border-checks-under-no-deal-brexit |title=Brussels confirms return of border checks under no-deal Brexit |last=Rankin |first=Jennifer |work=[[The Guardian]] |date=25 March 2019 |access-date=25 March 2019}}</ref>
== Possibility of an extended transitional period ==
Most of the major UK political parties support the idea of a transition period for applying temporary trade arrangements after the end of the UK's membership of the EU.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.incelaw.com/tw/knowledge-bank/the-post-brexit-transitional-period-bridge-over-troubled-negotiations |title=The post-Brexit transitional period: Bridge over troubled negotiations? |website=International Law Firm |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref>
According to a speech by [[Michel Barnier]] in September 2017, the [[EU]] would have to define the conditions for a transitional period, if the [[UK]] requests one, and the transition period would be part of the [[Article 50]] withdrawal agreement.<ref name="europa.eu">{{cite web |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3404_en.htm |title=Press release - Speech by Michel Barnier in front of the Committees of Foreign Affairs and the Committees of European Affairs of the Italian Parliament |date= |website=European Commission |accessdate=9 December 2017}}</ref>
=== UK government's legal advice ===
Following an unprecedented vote on 4 December 2018, MPs ruled that the UK government was in [[contempt of parliament]] for refusing to provide to Parliament, the full legal advice it had been given on the effect of its proposed terms for withdrawal.<ref name=brexitbbc20181205>{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46451970 |title=Brexit: Legal advice warns of Irish border 'stalemate' |publisher=BBC News |date=5 December 2018 |accessdate=30 December 2018}}</ref> The key point within the advice covered the legal effect of the "backstop" agreement governing Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, and the rest of the UK, in regard to the customs border between the EU and UK, and its implications for the [[Good Friday agreement]] which had led to the end of [[the Troubles]] in Northern Ireland, and specifically, whether the UK would be certain of being able to leave the EU in a practical sense, under the draft proposals.
The following day, the advice was published. The question asked was, ''"What is the legal effect of the UK agreeing to the Protocol to the Withdrawal Agreement on Ireland and Northern Ireland in particular its effect in conjunction with Articles 5 and 184 of the main Withdrawal Agreement?"'' The advice given was that:<ref name=brexitbbc20181205/>
:The Protocol is binding on the UK and EU [para 3], and anticipates a final future resolution of the border and customs issues being reached [para 5,12,13]. But "the Protocol is intended to subsist even when negotiations have clearly broken down" [para 16] and "In conclusion, the current drafting of the Protocol ... does not provide for a mechanism that is likely to enable the UK lawfully to exit the UK wide customs union without a subsequent agreement. This remains the case even if parties are still negotiating many years later, and even if the parties believe that talks have clearly broken down and there is no prospect of a future relationship agreement." [para 30]
== Future trade deal between the UK and EU ==
[[File:European Single Market integration.svg|thumb|{{Leftlegend|#3dc1ed|Non-EU states that participate in the EU Single Market with exceptions: [[Iceland]], [[Liechtenstein]], [[Norway]] and [[Switzerland]] (see also [[European Free Trade Association|EFTA]])<ref name="norwaymodel"/>}}]]
While negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union were in progress, Barnier, as the EU's chief negotiator, speaking in Rome to Committees of the Italian Parliament on 21 September 2017, stated that a future trade deal with the United Kingdom is the trade deal which will be negotiated after sufficient progress has been made on the withdrawal deal. Barnier commented that the EU will want to negotiate a future trade deal with the United Kingdom, because trade with the United Kingdom will continue.<ref name="auto5">{{cite web |url=http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3404_en.htm |title=Speech by Michel Barnier in front of the Committees of Foreign Affairs and the Committees of European Affairs of the Italian Parliament, Rome |date=21 September 2017 |website=European Commission |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> At the same time Barnier said "the future trade deal with the United Kingdom will be particular, as it will be less about building convergence, and more about controlling future divergence. This is key to establishing fair competition."<ref name="auto5"/>
The United Kingdom's prime minister, in a speech at the [[Santa Maria Novella]] church in Florence on 22 September 2017,<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2017/sep/22/mays-florence-speech-venue-represents-european-unity-not-division |title=May's Florence speech venue represents European unity, not division |date=22 September 2017 |newspaper=The Guardian |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> proposed an economic partnership between the UK and the EU which respects both the freedoms and principles of the EU, and the wishes of the British people. At the same time she re-affirmed that after the UK leaves the EU a period of implementation would be in their mutual interest, to be agreed under Article 50 for a strictly time-limited period.<ref name="Spectator9-17"/>
The European parliament voted a Brexit resolution (the European Parliament resolution of 14 March 2018 on the framework of the future EU-UK relationship (2018/2573(RSP)) with 544 MEP against 110 (with 51 abstentions<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/media/news/2018/march18/association-agreement.html |title=Brexit: EP recommends association agreement for future EU-UK relations |website=European Parliament |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref>). The 14 page<ref name="europa.eu1">{{cite web |url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//NONSGML+TA+P8-TA-2018-0069+0+DOC+PDF+V0//EN |title=Guidelines on the framework of future EU-UK relations |date=14 March 2018 |website=European Parliament |access-date=30 August 2018}}</ref> document states that an association agreement between EU and UK could be an adequate framework for the future. This resolution proposes that the agreement address four domains: trade, interior security, foreign and defense policy collaboration, and thematic cooperation (for instance for research and innovation).<ref>{{cite magazine |url=https://lentreprise.lexpress.fr/actualites/1/actualites/brexit-les-eurodeputes-proposent-un-accord-d-association-au-royaume-uni_1992319.html |title=Brexit : les eurodéputés proposent un accord d'association au Royaume-Uni |date=14 March 2018|magazine=[[L'Express]] |language=fr |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&reference=P8-TA-2017-0490&language=EN&ring=B8-2017-0677 |title=State of play of negotiations with the United Kingdom |date=13 December 2017 |website=European Parliament |accessdate=3 April 2018}}</ref>
The resolution also urges the UK to present a clear position on all outstanding issues pertaining to its orderly withdrawal.<ref name="europa.eu1"/>
On 13 November 2018, the UK and EU reached an agreement on the wording of the Withdrwawal Agreement (WA) and Political Declaration.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-european-union-thresa-may-brexit-negotiators-have-agreed-a-deal-2018-11|title=UK and EU negotiators have agreed on a Brexit deal|website=Businessinsider.com|accessdate=14 November 2018}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46188790|title=Brexit text agreed in talks breakthrough|date=14 November 2018|accessdate=14 November 2018|website=Bbc.com}}</ref>
The Withdrawal agreement covers the settlement of UK's financial commitments, the Border between NI and Ireland, the status of EU citizens in the UK, and the conditions for the transition period. The Political Declaration is effectively a statement of intent between the EU and UK to proceed to negotiate to a full and final trade deal which will apply after the transition period. It outlines the shape of the future relationship between the EU and UK, but is not a legally binding trade agreement.
On 14 November 2018, May's Cabinet approved the draft agreements.<ref name=bbcnov14>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46215930|title=Cabinet backs draft Brexit agreement|date=14 November 2018|accessdate=14 November 2018|website=Bbc.com}}</ref><ref name=nov14>{{cite web|url=https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-deal-latest-theresa-mays-cabinet-backs-eu-divorce-deal-a3990241.html|title=PM's Cabinet backs Brexit divorce deal|website=standard.co.uk|accessdate=14 November 2018|date=2018-11-14}}</ref><ref name=nov14wapo>{{cite web |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/theresa-may-faces-crunch-cabinet-showdown-over-her-brexit-plans/2018/11/14/124a425a-e807-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html |title=Archived copy |access-date=14 November 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181114174051/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/theresa-may-faces-crunch-cabinet-showdown-over-her-brexit-plans/2018/11/14/124a425a-e807-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html |archive-date=14 November 2018 |dead-url=yes }}</ref><ref name=nytnov14>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/14/world/europe/uk-cabinet-may-brexit.html|title=U.K. Cabinet Backs Theresa May’s Brexit Plan|website=Nytimes.com|accessdate=14 November 2018}}</ref> Shortly after it was approved by the British Cabinet, the European Commission published the 585 pages draft withdrawal agreement.[https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf ]
In December 2018, Secretary for Work and Pensions [[Amber Rudd]] suggested that a [[Norway-plus]] model – the membership of the [[European Economic Area]] (EEA) – could be an alternative if Theresa May's Brexit deal is rejected.<ref name="norwaymodel">{{cite news |title=Rudd says Norway-style Brexit deal is 'plausible' |url=https://www.ft.com/content/3a0010aa-facb-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e |work=Financial Times |date=8 December 2018}}</ref>
== See also ==
{{Wikipedia books
|1=Brexit
|3=Brexit, Article 50, and other articles
}}
{{Wikipedia books|Britain, Ireland and the European Union}}
* The [[European Atomic Energy Community]] (Euratom) – legally distinct from the EU but having the same membership, from which the United Kingdom is also withdrawing
* {{Books-inline|Brexit, Article 50, and other articles}} (includes articles on UK and EU treaties, policies, institutions, law and justice, and EU history)
{{-}}
==Notes==
{{notelist}}
== References ==
{{Reflist}}
== External links ==
* [http://www.parliament.uk/business/news/european-union UK Parliament – Brexit News]
* [http://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union Gov.UK – Department for Exiting the European Union]
* [http://www.planforbritain.gov.uk UK Government – "Plan for Britain" website]
* [http://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/unitedkingdom_en#brexit Europa (EU official website) – UK – Brexit – overview]
* [https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit-negotiations_en European Commission – Brexit negotiations website]
* [https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit-negotiations/negotiating-documents-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en European Commission – list of published negotiating documents]
* [https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness/preparedness-notices_en European Commission – Preparedness notices]
* [http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-uk-after-referendum/ ''Brexit'', EC, CEU Timeline and list of key documents for Brexit negotiations]
* [http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683123.001.0001/acprof-9780199683123 ''The Principle of Loyalty in EU Law'', 2014, by Marcus Klamert, Legal Officer, European Commission]
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20170828215154/http://jackofkent.com/brexit-negotiations-resource-page/ Resource page] and commentary by [[David Allen Green]]
* [https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/brexit-pound-exchange-rate-tracker Exchange Rates UK - Brexit Timeline With Chart for Impact on Pound Sterling]
* [https://www.dfa.ie/media/dfa/eu/brexit/keydocuments/Omnibus-Bill-Memo.pdf Explanatory Memorandum for the ''Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Consequential Provisions) Bill 2019'' introduced by the Irish government in the legislature ([[Oireachtas]])]
{{2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum}}
[[Category:Brexit|Negotiation]]
[[Category:Negotiation]]
[[Category:2017 in the European Union]]
[[Category:2017 in British politics]]
[[Category:2018 in the European Union]]
[[Category:2018 in British politics]]
[[Category:2019 in the European Union]]
[[Category:2019 in British politics]]
[[Category:June 2017 events in Europe]]
[[Category:Membership treaties of the European Union]]
[[Category:Disaster preparedness]]' |
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160 => 'https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu',
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162 => 'https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/may-expected-to-challenge-right-of-eu-citizens-to-bring-family-to-britain-non-european-spouses-brexit',
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164 => 'https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/26/eu-citizens-living-in-uk-must-apply-for-special-id-card-after-brexit',
165 => 'https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/06/frictionless-trade-impossible-if-uk-leaves-eu-single-market-says-barnier',
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179 => 'https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article156631505/Mit-Merkel-wird-es-kein-Rosinenpicken-fuer-die-Briten-geben.html'
] |
