Laura Jane Willoughby's Reviews > The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End

Rating is for the writing and content.

This is largely a redux of the previous book (The Fourth Turning), reissued for the newer generations who might be his new audience/ readers and updated with current events to prove why NOW is indeed the crisis/inflection point is this “saeculum.” He also goes into more details about what exactly the final crisis moment might look like, and what the ensuing “turnings” following it might look like, all with a generation-by-generation breakdown of how it may all generally feel and what role each cohort will play in each turning.

It is a lot of historical, sociological, and cultural Information delivered in an expert voice and using the Royal “we” since so much of it started as joint work with his original co-author. It’s dense, but quite readable. However, sometimes it seemed overly long and explanatory.

There is one content area that I noticed right off and that continued to distract me, and it was a fatal flaw in this book for me, as its introduction seemed to necessitate some additional explanation (at least) or (even better) additional theorizing. The author calls the turnings or recent historical past “Anglo-American”- as in “Anglo-American history” and “Anglo-American Crisis.” In one sense this acknowledges that his viewpoint (and theory) and therefore that of the book is predominantly white (and male… the majority of referenced historical figures, generational examples and quotes he pulls in are from white men of European origin). However, to not signal to the reader why he is doing this nor address the complexities that arise from it — if there is a Latino-American or African-American history and perspective that is different or follows a different timeline and what are the implications of that on his Anglo-American-centric theory and turning— is a failing of this author and this book.

He also made some alterations to the original theory that made it suspect, like the addition of two new inflection points (regeneracy) before entering the “Ekpyrosis” - a a new word pulled from the Greek. These additions along with language the author relied on in snort snippets at the end of some chapters gives the author a potential out should this fourth turning not unfold the way Howe foretells here.

It is a fine book. A good read to look at recent history in a different light, and it’s entertaining to posit the thesis.

The following has nothing to do with the rating:

One thing I’d caution readers to remember as they embark on this, especially those new to the Fourth Turning theories (which have, by the way, been co-opted by white supremacist hate groups as proof that there is a coming race war and to encourage other supremacists to take up arms and be prepared to fight for their hate-centered ideals): this IS just a theory and has not yet been proven. We have to wait for that. It’s entirely possible to find patterns in entirely separate things that are not, in fact, linked, and as humans we are hard-wired to do so (this tendency is called apophenia); and Howe even tells us that he looked for patterns in history, right there in the afterword:

“Thinking about history archetypically, as the product of overlapping generational scripts, is an acquired taste, like the habit of closely observing how people dress or talk. It starts with a glance here and a comparison there, and then it draws you in, until you can’t help but notice significant patterns in everything you see changing around you, from politics to pop culture.”


So this entire thing could be an illusory correlation.

But like I said, it’s fun to ponder and see historical events (and accompanying generational descriptions) in a different framework.