Fine-Scale Coastal Storm Surge Disaster Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Model: A Case Study of Laizhou Bay, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area
3. Data and Method
3.1. Data Preparation
3.2. Remote Sensing Interpretation Method
3.3. Fine-Scale Coastal Storm Surge Disaster Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Model
4. Result
5. Discussion
5.1. Uncertainty Analysis
5.2. Comparison with Other Research
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Date | Storm Surge Type | Maximum Storm Surge Increase (cm) | Main Disaster Data |
---|---|---|---|
1992.08.31 | Typhoon 9216 | 304 | Seventy-six people died in Shandong Province, with a direct economic loss of more than 4 billion RMB |
1994.08.16 | Typhoon 9415 | 210 | No specific data |
1997.08.19 | Typhoon 9711 | 222 | Six people died in Shandong Province, with a direct economic loss of 720 million RMB |
2005.08.07 | Typhoon 0509 | 120 | Seven people died in Shandong Province, with a direct economic loss of 3.6 billion RMB |
2012.09.02 | Typhoon 1210 | 178 | Direct economic loss in Shandong Province: 1.6 billion RMB |
2003.10.11 | Cyclone + cold air | 307 | Direct economic loss in Shandong Province: 1 billion RMB |
2009.02.13 | Cyclone + cold air | 160 | No obvious disaster data |
2009.04.15 | Cyclone + cold air | 216 | No specific data |
2012.11.11 | Cyclone + cold air | 123 | Direct economic loss in Shandong Province: 149 million RMB |
2013.05.26 | Jianghuai cyclone | 120 | Direct economic loss in Shandong Province: 144 million RMB |
2014.10.11 | Cold air | 200 | Direct economic loss in Shandong Province: 29 million RMB |
2015.11.06 | Cold air | 185 | No specific data |
2016.10.21 | Cold air | 188 | Direct economic loss in Shandong Province: 89 million RMB |
2016.11.21 | Cold air | 180 | Direct economic loss in Shandong Province: 80 million RMB |
2017.10.09 | Cold air | 209 | Direct economic loss in Shandong Province: 6 million RMB |
Parameter | 1-m Resolution Panchromatic/4-m Resolution Multispectral Camera | |
---|---|---|
Spectral range | Pan | 0.45–0.90 µm |
Multispectral | 0.45–0.52 µm | |
0.52–0.59 µm | ||
0.63–0.69 µm | ||
0.77–0.89 µm | ||
Resolution | Pan | 1 m |
Multispectral | 4 m | |
Gray level | 16 bit | |
Width | 45 km | |
Revisiting period (with side swing) | 5 days | |
Coverage repetitive period | 69 days |
Exposure Value | Land-use Type |
---|---|
0.1 | Bare land; grassland and woodland; under construction; river; lake; tidal flat |
0.2 | Arable land; orchard; reservoir |
0.3 | Pit pond |
0.4 | Park and green space; culture pond |
0.5 | Roads in built-up area |
0.6 | Fishing port; railway; highway; sports and recreation area |
0.7 | Industrial area; cargo port; land for public facilities; scenic area |
0.8 | Commercial and financial area; mining area of magnesium; salt field; press and publication area |
0.9 | Wholesale and retail area; accommodation and dining area |
1.0 | Rural residential area; urban residential area; campus; government and organization area; medical area |
Indicator | Effects on Exposure |
---|---|
Elevation | Elevation of disaster-bearing body distribution. The lower the elevation, the more likely the disaster-bearing body is to be submerged and the higher its exposure. |
Slope | Slope of disaster-bearing body distribution. The gentler the slope, the more unfavorable it is for water drainage, and the higher the exposure. |
Distance to water | The closer the disaster-bearing body is to the water body, the greater the probability of being flooded and the higher the exposure. |
Indicator | Effect on Sensitivity |
---|---|
Percentage of females | The physical strength of women is less than that of men. Thus, women are more easily affected by storm surges than men during a disaster event. |
Percentage of population under age 15 | Children under the age of 15 are more vulnerable to storm surge disasters than adults. In China, children enter school at the age of six, receive nine years of compulsory education, and graduate at the age of 15. Compared with adults, it may be more difficult for children under the age of 15 to take appropriate measures to protect themselves in the face of sudden disasters. Hence, they have greater sensitivity. |
Percentage of population aged 65 and above | Due to the decline in bodily functions, older people are more vulnerable to storm surge disasters than the young. |
Percentage of population with junior, secondary, and lower education | People with less education tend to have lower incomes and possess fewer resources. Therefore, those with less education are more sensitive to storm surges. |
Ratio of fishery products to gross domestic product (GDP) | An economic system with a large amount of fishery production is more susceptible to storm surge hazards. |
Indicator | Effect on Adaptability |
---|---|
General public budget expenditure | A region with higher public budget expenditure is expected to make more investments in disaster management. Therefore, the adaptability of such a region is higher than regions with less public budget expenditure. |
GDP | A region with higher GDP tends to have more public budget expenditure, as well as higher levels of medical care, technology, and social security. All such advantages will increase the adaptability of such a region. |
Urban disposable income per capita | If storm surge disasters cause damage to the property of urban residents, a higher income can ensure that the residents repair the damage faster. |
Rural disposable income per capita | Rural residents who have higher income can repair the damage caused by storm surges faster. |
Number of hospital medical staff | A higher quality of medical care protects human health before disasters and can treat more injured people during and after disasters. The higher quality of medical care thus increases adaptability of a coastal area. The number of hospital medical staff is a useful indicator for assessing medical care. |
Number of medical institutions | The number of medical institutions is also an important indicator for assessing medical care. |
Vulnerability | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Very Low (Level IV) Range [0.1,0.3] | Low (Level III) Range (0.3,0.5] | High (Level II) Range (0.5,0.8] | Very high (Level I) Range (0.8,1] | ||
Hazard | Very low (Level IV) | Very low risk (Level IV) | Very low risk (Level IV) | Low risk (Level III) | Low risk (Level III) |
Low (Level III) | Very low risk (Level IV) | Low risk (Level III) | High risk (Level II) | High risk (Level II) | |
High (Level II) | Low risk (Level III) | High risk (Level II) | High risk (Level II) | Very high risk (Level I) | |
Very high (Level I) | Low risk (Level III) | High risk (Level II) | Very high risk (Level I) | Very high risk (Level I) |
Indicator | Judgment Criterion | Exposure Value | Experts’ Score | Weight |
---|---|---|---|---|
Land-use type | Land-use type | Land-use type exposure | 9 | 0.5 |
Evaluation | <0.5 m | 1 | 3 | |
0.5–1 m | 0.6 | 0.167 | ||
>1 m | 0.2 | |||
Slope | 0–6° | 1 | 2 | |
6–20° | 0.6 | 0.111 | ||
>20° | 0.2 | |||
Distance to water | ≤0.5 km | 1 | 4 | |
0.5–1 km | 0.8 | |||
1–2 km | 0.6 | 0.222 | ||
2–5 km | 0.4 | |||
>5 km | 0.2 |
Indicator | Kenli | Dongying | Guangrao | Shouguang | Hanting | Changyi | Laizhou | Zhaoyuan | Longkou | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exposure | Area of land-use with exposure values ranging from 0.1–1 (km²) | 0.1 | 0.58 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.60 | 1.14 | 6.51 | 1.80 | 5.12 |
0.2 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.35 | 3.25 | 1.12 | 0.39 | ||
0.3 | 36.63 | 7.36 | 0.00 | 10.01 | 22.45 | 18.56 | 164.97 | 38.58 | 85.85 | ||
0.4 | 162.50 | 13.99 | 0.01 | 5.73 | 42.45 | 129.73 | 381.47 | 149.09 | 164.26 | ||
0.5 | 105.89 | 14.51 | 0.47 | 11.81 | 22.60 | 4.22 | 22.23 | 2.91 | 21.42 | ||
0.6 | 350.13 | 132.43 | 4.80 | 34.33 | 126.72 | 81.90 | 85.59 | 7.86 | 32.19 | ||
0.7 | 22.02 | 0.70 | 6.32 | 23.90 | 45.04 | 39.96 | 76.22 | 9.12 | 53.33 | ||
0.8 | 43.55 | 23.45 | 30.86 | 87.63 | 208.78 | 156.59 | 158.10 | 7.41 | 44.33 | ||
0.9 | 63.69 | 8.90 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 2.43 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.27 | ||
1.0 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1.11 | ||
Sensitivity | Percentage of females (%) | 49.46 | 49.23 | 49.10 | 49.05 | 48.76 | 49.79 | 49.25 | 49.67 | 49.44 | |
Percentage of population under age 15 (%) | 15.57 | 15.16 | 16.28 | 15.03 | 14.69 | 14.80 | 10.98 | 12.32 | 11.43 | ||
Percentage of population aged 65 and above (%) | 9.52 | 7.50 | 10.14 | 10.05 | 10.82 | 11.79 | 13.75 | 12.80 | 10.21 | ||
Percentage of population with junior, secondary, and lower education (%) | 75.16 | 51.76 | 77.43 | 76.96 | 77.47 | 79.33 | 79.06 | 73.92 | 74.23 | ||
Ratio of fishery products to GDP (%) | 5.54 | 1.88 | 1.68 | 4.16 | 0.1 | 5.44 | 2.85 | 0.75 | 0.42 | ||
Adaptability | General public budget expenditure (billion yuan) | 2.88 | 3.18 | 4.99 | 9.55 | 2.47 | 4.06 | 6.18 | 5.71 | 9.47 | |
GDP (billion yuan) | 45.48 | 49.97 | 86.92 | 86.67 | 23.34 | 44.29 | 76.93 | 74.01 | 119.09 | ||
Urban disposable income per capita (yuan) | 38341 | 45394 | 40077 | 37606 | 34557 | 33693 | 42027 | 42181 | 45013 | ||
Rural disposable income per capita (yuan) | 15605 | 18634 | 18681 | 19249 | 17312 | 17662 | 19557 | 19755 | 20554 | ||
Number of hospital medical staff | 1069 | 9449 | 3075 | 8908 | 3202 | 4036 | 7665 | 3473 | 3948 | ||
Number of medical institutions | 282 | 469 | 397 | 694 | 475 | 565 | 898 | 391 | 435 |
Vulnerability Dimension (Expert Score: 1–9) | Indicator | Expert Score | Weight |
---|---|---|---|
Exposure (9) | Areas of land-use with the exposure value of 0.1 | No expert scoring required; determined by formula (1) | 0.010 |
Areas of land-use with the exposure value of 0.2 | 0.015 | ||
Areas of land-use with the exposure value of 0.3 | 0.013 | ||
Areas of land-use with the exposure value of 0.4 | 0.015 | ||
Areas of land-use with the exposure value of 0.5 | 0.028 | ||
Areas of land-use with the exposure value of 0.6 | 0.032 | ||
Areas of land-use with the exposure value of 0.7 | 0.027 | ||
Areas of land-use with the exposure value of 0.8 | 0.045 | ||
Areas of land-use with the exposure value of 0.9 | 0.242 | ||
Areas of land-use with the exposure value of 1.0 | 0.263 | ||
Sensitivity (7) | Percentage of females | 7 | 0.023 |
Percentage of population under age 15 | 7 | 0.029 | |
Percentage of population aged 65 and above | 6 | 0.018 | |
Percentage of population with junior, secondary, and lower education | 5 | 0.010 | |
Ratio of fishery products to GDP | 9 | 0.055 | |
Adaptability (9) | General public budget expenditure | 5 | 0.044 |
GDP | 1 | 0.006 | |
Urban disposable income per capita | 3 | 0.031 | |
Rural disposable income per capita | 3 | 0.027 | |
Number of hospital medical staff | 5 | 0.043 | |
Number of medical institutions | 5 | 0.025 |
Hazard Level | Storm Water Increase (cm) |
---|---|
Level I | ≥350 |
Level II | [300–350) |
Level III | [250–300) |
Level IV | <250 |
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Liu, Y.; Lu, C.; Yang, X.; Wang, Z.; Liu, B. Fine-Scale Coastal Storm Surge Disaster Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Model: A Case Study of Laizhou Bay, China. Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 1301. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12081301
Liu Y, Lu C, Yang X, Wang Z, Liu B. Fine-Scale Coastal Storm Surge Disaster Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Model: A Case Study of Laizhou Bay, China. Remote Sensing. 2020; 12(8):1301. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12081301
Chicago/Turabian StyleLiu, Yueming, Chen Lu, Xiaomei Yang, Zhihua Wang, and Bin Liu. 2020. "Fine-Scale Coastal Storm Surge Disaster Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Model: A Case Study of Laizhou Bay, China" Remote Sensing 12, no. 8: 1301. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12081301