Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/September

September

Week 1

98L.INVEST

New Invest up. [1] --Ajm⁸¹ 18:44, 1 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Is this the most southerly of the two waves in the Mid-Atlantic? Pobbie Rarr 18:59, 1 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I think so. It has about 24-48 hours before it clears the SAL. CrazyC83 01:37, 2 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Dvorak estimates now T1.0/1.0. -- WmE 12:51, 2 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's starting to look a little better organizes Hello32020 20:51, 2 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, convection is increasing though but it is till loosely organized. --Irfan Faiz 00:05, 3 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone!! Merged with 90L. -- WmE 13:15, 3 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

99L.INVEST

Just appeared. -- WmE 13:30, 2 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's in a better location for development than 98L but less organized. I'd watch it closely though. CrazyC83 17:36, 2 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Convection has decreased though, looks like it is undergoing the poof stage. --Irfan Faiz 00:08, 3 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Invests galore! This is obviously the one to watch though. Pobbie Rarr 01:48, 3 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Recon's scheduled for 1545Z.

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
 1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
  A. 03/2100Z
  B. 01HHA INVEST
  C. 03/1545Z
  D. 16.0N 067.0W
  E. 03/2000Z TO 04/0000Z
  F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

– Ch acor 15:23, 3 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Recon called off. Not well organized. Still at least 24 hours from becoming a depression IMO, should it get that far. CrazyC83 15:34, 3 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone! -- RattleMan 01:09, 5 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

06L.Florence

See the Florence Storm Event Archive.

91L.INVEST

Now up on NRL [2]. Pobbie Rarr 11:34, 5 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I don't see much out of this blob. It needs to get a long way. CrazyC83 14:26, 5 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks too ragged to even get it's act together. It will fall victim of wind sheer anyways. -24.92.41.95 14:55, 5 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Agreed, and Florence will keep the environment unstable behind it. Sorry Gordon, you'll probably have to wait. I'd give it a 10% chance of development. CrazyC83 15:16, 5 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I would give it a little higher, 25% chance of development. Hello32020 19:52, 5 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The models like its chances. --Holderca1 19:57, 5 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's on the NHC's tropical cyclone danger graphic now.Jamie|C 19:59, 5 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Very interesting. Possibility of a third Gordon, will it be a monster like the first one? or like its father? Way too soon to tell, but it bears watching. →Cyclone1→ 22:11, 5 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I'll bang my head if this becomes a storm like Gilbert. --Irfan Faiz 23:38, 5 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ditto. :P íslenskur fellibylur #12 _(samtal) 23:39, 5 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It has potential, especially since Florence is moving faster than it and thus away. —Cuivi é nen 00:19, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I'll "eat my hat" if it becomes another Gilbert. That seems to be the phrase of the season, lol. →Cyclone1→ 00:21, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It would have a much better chance if this was 2005. Nonetheless, it is one name I really want to see retired. CrazyC83 00:38, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

AMEN! →Cyclone1→ 01:46, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Absorbed by Florence it looks like...she is eating up everything! CrazyC83 15:07, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It is expanding because it eats up everything on it's path!. --Irfan Faiz 10:46, 9 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

92L.INVEST

Just appeared off the East Coast at 30.5N 79.4W. -- RattleMan 18:00, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like a frontal system is going to get this one. --Holderca1 18:09, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS EVENING.

That was fast. bob rulz 21:10, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

That's an understatement, that was lightning fast! it's exsisted for like, what, 3 hours? →Cyclone1→ 21:32, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Maybe they sense TD7 already? CrazyC83 21:48, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Most likely that Air Force plane was scheduled to investigate Florence, but, considering the proximity of 92 to the USA, they made a last minute adjustment, which is why it seems unusually fast. It usually takes a day or so for them to prepare the flight. --tomf688 (talk - email) 22:32, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's not like they have to fly very far either. --Holderca1 18:24, 7 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Recon's leaving, they couldn't close off a center. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 00:28, 7 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Both 91L and 92L are gone from NRL. --Core des at talk. o_O 18:52, 8 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 2

07L.Gordon

See the Gordon Storm Event Archive.

08L.Helene

See the Helene Storm Event Archive.

El Niño Develops

New ENSO update says that El Niño has developed and will likely continue into early 2007. -- RattleMan 14:52, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

That's great news! --Holderca1 15:08, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Probably a little bit late for this season except near the end of the season anyway, since it takes a while for effects to propagate to the Atlantic. —AySz88 \^-^ 17:41, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

You're right, it does take a while. It's like 2004/2005. An el Nino developed late in 2004, which prevented significant activity after September. In Winter of 05, the el nino still persisted, though it was neutral by the time the infamous season started. Hurricanehink (talk) 19:12, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The problem of course, is that the El-Nino is living up to its name Christmastime name. What the Atlantic needs is a decent El-Nino in the summer, not in the winter. Most Atlantic hurricanes during El-Ninos aren't bad, although exceptions exist. Of course, a strong summer El-Nino would be bad for the Pacific Coast of Mexico, as El-Nino Pacific hurricanes often suck. Notice how the Retired names of Iwa, Iniki, Pauline, and Kenna all happened in seasons with a at least a moderately-strong summer El-Nino? Then again, even slow seasons can set records. 1997 and 2002 are both below average by ACE, yet gave us the busiest July and September at the time, although I'd take another 2002 over last year, and 1997 over that. Easily. Miss Madeline | Talk to Madeline 23:23, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

El Nino in the West Pacific is even worse. The 1997 West Pacific Typhoon Season was the most unbelievable season I have ever heard of, and yes I am counting 2005 AHS, 1933 AHS, 1996 West Pacific (with 33 storms), and the 1964 West Pacific season that saw 39 tropical storms form and holds the world record. Look at these numbers:

31 total storms
23 typhoons (75 mph or greater)
10 Category 5 super typhoons (160 mph or greater)
4 had winds of at least 180 mph
3 consecutive storms with pressures below 880 mbar (Ivan, Joan and Keith)
10 typhoon landfalls at Cat 1 or greater.

That is just unbelieveable. It's hard to imagine stats like that. I just don't have the right words for it. The numbers speak for themselves. It's just incredible. I am in complete awe of such power. As crazy as 2005 was and as crazy as the Atlantic has proven itself to be, it can't touch that. -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 00:07, 14 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The WPac and EPc and CPac seasons all look healthy even does the North Indian except for the Atlantic this year. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(T + U + E + C)} - (Remembering 9/11) 03:50, 14 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The EPAC and CPAC do indeed look healthy, but the WPAC is still below average to the best of my knowledge, the Atlantic is probably about average, and the North Indian just had that one cat 4 and then nothing. The El Nino just started, and it hasn't even started affecting the Atlantic yet. bob rulz 04:01, 14 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 3

95L.INVEST

New Invest just appeared on NRL, just off the Carolina coast. Doesn't look bad, but it doesn't have much time to develop.CrazyC83 18:26, 17 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

New England should fear not though; even if it does develop, there is a wall of 20 knot wind shear guarding the New England coast. [3]. On top of that, NHC doesn't seem at all concerned about it. -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 21:15, 17 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wow. Even if it doesn't develop, that's some better looking circulation for clouds in that area than I've seen lately. :P SargeAbernathy 12:33, 18 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

SSD returns T#s of ST1.5/1.5. Subtropical! -- RattleMan 13:59, 18 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

You know, now that I think of it, this system reminds me of how last year's subtropical depression 22 looked. --Patteroast 14:14, 18 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Almost no deep convection right now, but looks very organized. This could get itself together in a hurry if some central convection can develop. Not sure about its future track though, none of the models initialize it. -Runningonbrains 18:10, 18 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

A few models do. --Holderca1 20:04, 18 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Those are all either statistical or "track-where-the-leaf-goes-in-the-stream" type models, I think... I'm not sure those are even able to dissipate a cyclone that's put in them. —AySz88 \^-^ 21:28, 18 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

You lost me, those aren't predicting whether it will intensify or not. --Holderca1 22:05, 18 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well, models only predict a track for the system if they think the system will exist, right? :p —AySz88 \^-^ 23:06, 18 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

He's got a point, but I think it's a moot one as NHC now says this thing is unlikely to develop and I have to agree. There's next to no convection in this thing. -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 03:03, 19 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The latest TWO says some development is possible. Hurricanehink (talk) 23:22, 19 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Meh.. shower activity is increasing, looks kinda sub-tropical, but if you ask me, it has about a snowball's chance in a microwave. But, stranger things have happened, and Mother Nature won't let us forget it. →Cyclone1→ 01:03, 20 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone from NRL. --Core des at talk! 08:06, 20 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

09L.Isaac

See the Isaac Storm Event Archive.

Week 4

97L.INVEST (error)

Appeared on the Navy site[4] with no clue where it is (a sort of meteorological nomen nudum). Has somebody pressed the button too soon? The only activity apart from 96L looks too far south to develop. Update - it's now showing a photo of the same area as 96L. Possibly finger trouble?--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 11:55, 26 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Perhaps that system has two LLCCs? Good looking system though and NHC again thinks 96/7 could become a TD soon. – Ch acor 11:57, 26 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's probably actually the same storm - FNMOC has removed 96L. – Ch acor 12:12, 26 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

A reasonable explanation would be that 96L looked like it was splitting into two systems late last week, and that 97L is for the other system...but it's not likely as the positions are almost identical, and NRL's wind estimate for 97L is 10 kt. Unless they change it to something else, it's an error. --Core des at talk! 16:52, 26 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The Navy have reverted to 96L. Looks like 97L was just a typo.--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 21:24, 26 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Marked as error. bob rulz 01:43, 27 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

97L.INVEST (for real)

Appears to relate to this:

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT IT
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 12:32, 28 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks impressive on the NRL site, but NHC doesnt seem terribly interested in it. Jamie|C 14:10, 28 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

SHIPS peaks at 60 kt before weakening. – Ch acor 14:13, 28 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It looks very impressive right now (lots of convection). I'm surprised they didn't put this one up sooner. Pobbie Rarr 14:36, 28 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I laughed out loud when I read this section title, because that's what I was going to put up...does look very impressive....and regardless, something to watch, as it is very close to land right now. Also, only a few models have picked up on it, but the ones that have are split between recurving and pushing west. Again, definately one to watch. -Runningonbrains 15:22, 28 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It looks quite dead now... Jamie|C 16:36, 29 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, it's just a bunch of scattered clouds now. bob rulz 19:28, 29 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. bob rulz 15:53, 30 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]