Purpose

To estimate incidence and progression rates of nuclear opacities in the Longitudinal Study of Cataract, an epidemiologic study of the natural history of all types of lens opacities.

Methods

The Lens Opacities Classification System III was used to assess longitudinal changes between baseline and follow-up lens photographs for the 764 Longitudinal Study of Cataract participants. Baseline data, collected until December 1988 as part of a case-control study, included color slit, retroillumination, and Scheimpflug photographs. The same data were collected by the longitudinal Study of Cataract at four subsequent visits at yearly intervals.

Results

Among patients free of nuclear opacities at baseline, the incidence of new opacities was 6% after 2 years and 8% after 5 years of follow-up. The progression of pre-existing nuclear opacities was much higher. After 2 years, nuclear opacities had progressed in more than one third of the patients with pre-existing opacities; after 5 years, almost half had progressed. Older age was significantly related to higher incidence of new nuclear opacities, but not to progression of pre-existing opacities. Patients with other opacity types had higher nuclear incidence and progression rates.

Conclusions

In this clinic-based, older-patient population, new nuclear opacities developed in less than one tenth of the patients after 5 years of follow-up. In contrast, almost one half of the patients with pre-existing opacities had worsened after 5 years. These estimated rates can be used to plan intervention or other studies of nuclear changes in similar populations.