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2024 United States presidential election in Illinois

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Illinois
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Reporting
97%
as of 4:37 PM CST
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote 19 0
Popular vote 2,846,955 2,395,439
Percentage 53.5% 45%
County Results
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Illinois
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Chicago
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Cook County
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  • 2021

The 2024 United States presidential election in Illinois is currently taking place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Illinois voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Illinois has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College this election, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]

Illinois is a strongly blue state in the Great Lakes region anchored by Chicago, with the sparsely populated southern region of the state being culturally influenced by the Upper South and Bible Belt. It has a reputation for being by far the most liberal state in the Great Lakes region. The state has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election beginning in 1992 (doing so by at least 10% each time), including voting for Senator Barack Obama from Illinois in 2008 and 2012 and Chicago-born Hillary Clinton in 2016. This will also be the first election since 1868 in which Illinois will not have 20 or more electoral votes.

With 97% of the reported vote counted, Illinois has been projected to be won by the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. However, despite Harris easily carrying the state, her performance was the worst for a Democrat since the state last voted Republican in 1988, and the first time since then in which the Democratic candidate's margin of victory didn't exceed 10%. Trump flipped Winnebago County for the first time since 2004 and Jackson County for the first time since 1984.

Current vote counts has Harris winning the state by an 8.5% margin, half of Joe Biden's margin of 16.99% in 2020. Illinois joined other blue states such as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Rhode Island in trending significantly rightward in 2024.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Illinois Democratic presidential primary

The Illinois Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida,[a] Kansas, and Ohio.

Illinois Democratic primary, March 19, 2024[2]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 739,646 91.5% 147 147
Marianne Williamson 28,777 3.6%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 25,615 3.2%
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn) 14,513 1.8%
Total: 808,551 100.00% 147 27 174


Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Illinois Republican presidential primary

The Illinois Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Ohio.

Illinois Republican primary, March 19, 2024[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 479,556 80.50% 64 0 64
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 86,278 14.48% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 16,990 2.85% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 9,758 1.64% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 3,114 0.52% 0 0 0
Total: 595,696 100.00% 64 0 64

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
See also: Ballot access in the 2024 United States presidential election

On August 23, 2024, the Illinois State Board of Elections met in Chicago and Springfield to certify the following list of candidates to appear on the general election ballot:

The board also issued rulings to the nomination papers of third party and independent candidates, including placeholder candidates for the Libertarian and Green Party tickets, as well as for Kennedy and Shanahan. Both the Libertarian and Green tickets were removed from the ballot, lacking the minimum required number of 25,000 valid signatures, while Kennedy remained.[4]

Campaign

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Convention

[edit]
Harris delivering her acceptance speech on the final day of the Democratic National Convention.

The 2024 Democratic National Convention was held from August 19 to 22, 2024, at the United Center in Chicago.[5] It was the first instance of a major party's presidential nominating convention held in Illinois since 1996.[6] Here, party delegates voted on their platform for the election and formally nominated vice president Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, with Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her running mate.

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[7] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[8] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] Safe D June 13, 2024
CNalysis[11] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[12] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[13] Likely D August 23, 2024
538[14] Solid D October 2, 2024
RCP[15] Likely D June 26, 2024
NBC News[16] Safe D October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[17] October 4–28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 42% –
ActiVote[18] September 3 – October 5, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 59% 41% –
ActiVote[19] August 6–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 42% –
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[20][A] April 13–21, 2024 643 (LV) – 53% 40% 7%
Emerson College[21] October 1–4, 2023 468 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 34% 23%
Cor Strategies[22] August 24–27, 2023 811 (RV) – 55% 35% 10%
Emerson College[23][B] October 20–24, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 37% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[24][C] October 10–11, 2022 770 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 42% 7%
Emerson College[25] September 21–23, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 38% 11%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[20][A] April 13–21, 2024 643 (LV) – 46% 43% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[20][A] April 13–21, 2024 643 (LV) – 48% 37% 15%

J. B. Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		J. B.
Pritzker
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[24] October 10–11, 2022 770 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 42% 7%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Cor Strategies[22] August 24–27, 2023 811 (RV) – 53% 35% 12%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Illinois[26]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
2,853,931 53.6% Decrease 3.94%
Republican
2,396,987 45.0% Increase 4.45%
Independent
76,492 1.4% N/A
Write-in
Total votes

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ The state party only nominated Joe Biden as a candidate, cancelling the primary.
  2. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by WGN-TV
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by WBEZ & The Chicago Sun-Times

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "Illinois Presidential Primary". AP News. June 14, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
  3. ^ "Illinois Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  4. ^ Keck, Patrick (August 27, 2024). "RFK Jr. remains on Illinois ballot; Green Party, Libertarian candidates removed". The State Journal-Register. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  5. ^ Homan, Maya (August 12, 2024). "The 2024 Democratic National Convention kicks off next week. Here's what to expect". USA TODAY (Digital). Retrieved August 12, 2024.
  6. ^ Elving, Ron (August 12, 2024). "Chicago '68 recalls a Democratic convention and a political moment like no other". NPR (Digital). Retrieved August 12, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  13. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  14. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (September 18, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  16. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  17. ^ Allis, Victor (October 29, 2024). "Harris's Steady Lead in Illinois". ActiVote.
  18. ^ Allis, Victor (October 6, 2024). "Harris Extends Lead in Illinois". ActiVote. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
  19. ^ Allis, Victor (August 29, 2024). "Harris Leads by Double Digits in Illinois". ActiVote. Retrieved August 31, 2024.
  20. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  21. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "Illinois 2024 Poll: Biden Holds Nine-Point Lead Over Trump". Emerson Polling.
  22. ^ a b "Illinoisans Share Who They Support for President (Republican & Democrat Poll)". YouTube. August 30, 2023. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  23. ^ Bradley, Tahman; Muck, Jordan (October 26, 2022). "Poll: Illinois Democrats maintain large leads in race for governor, U.S. Senate, Sec Of State, Comptroller, Treasurer". WGN-TV.
  24. ^ a b McKinney, Dave (October 17, 2022). "Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll: Illinois voters don't want Pritzker or Biden to run for president – but they'd take either over Trump". Chicago Sun-Times.
  25. ^ Mumford, Camille (September 28, 2022). "Illinois 2022: Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth in Strong Position in Re-election Bids". Emerson Polling.
  26. ^ "Candidate Filings in Ballot Order, November 5, 2024" (PDF). Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
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