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The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End
[1982173734] [978-1982173739] A book The Fourth Turning Is What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End Howe Hardcover 2023
592 pages, Hardcover
First published July 18, 2023
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August 7, 2023
I read this book because I read Generations 15 years ago and was a big fan of it. I was impressed that the authors predicted (the way I remember the book) a big catastrophe around 2001 (9/11) and then 20 years of chaos. In Generations they said this big event would unite people in patriotism which is what happened after 9/11. The other fascinating insight from Generations was that its not the events that matter, its how people react to them. Where people are in their journey through life determines how they respond to events. COVID is the perfect example of this. Historically Americans would have responded to COVID by saying "hum, thats a bad flu season" and moving on. However in 2020, people were primed to react with hysteria because of social media but also because Boomers were older and have always been very willing to sacrifice other generations for their own well-being. As a result, old people feeling safe became the number 1 priority and it became a giant catastrophe. The response was overwhelming, emotional, made no sense, and primarily harmed children who were not at risk. It was the reaction to the virus that defined our existence, not the reality of getting sick.
This book is mostly a rehash of Generations, which I found disappointing. There is not much new here.
The author is a Ph.D from Santa Monica and the book has a strong liberal bias. I use the word "liberal" very specifically because he is left wing but not woke. He doesn't talk about identity politics or use critical theory gibberish. Instead he slips in comments that a credulous New York Times reader would believe; for example, he says that most political violence comes from the right while omitting any mention of BLM riots.
My big problem with the book is that the author's predictions aren't coming true. The whole point of Generations was that they were going to try and predict the future based on what had happened in the past. The fact that the events of 2001-2008 really lined up with their prediction gave them huge credibility. However, since then the world has not gone according to their plan. They predicted that Millenials would be a generation similar to the so-called "Greatest Generation" that fought World War Two. Emerging from the crises of 2000-2020, we would build a safe, nurturing society based on traditional values (similar to the 1950s). This society would be a great place to grow up but it would be stifling in its conformity and would give rise to a new generation of Boomer-type people who would make everything about their self-expression and individual feelings.
This future has not come to pass. Instead, crises have consistently led to more and more fragmentation. There is no rebirth, no solution to problems. Most importantly, Generations theorized that millenials would build new institutions to replace the old ones that broke down. Instead, every institution has been destroyed by wokeness and any attempt to create new ones is immediately crushed by elite Boomers who resist any change.
I think there are two possibilities here. One is that the authors are right and we are coalescing around a new national identity and a new culture. Trump's presidency, COVID, and the 2020 election are the big crisis predicted in Generations and the woke left won the same way Roosevelt's liberalism won or Lincoln's Union won over the South. This is terrifying because that means that we are going to experience 1950s style bland social conformity but it will all be in the service of the woke cult. Every morning school children will sing the Pledge of Allegiance to the LGBTQ+++ pride flag and learn to hate themselves and each other based on race. All resources in our society will be allocated based on identity politics and the chaos and social decay will continue and be cheered on by corporate America, who will provide good paying jobs as DEI coordinators to everyone who needs one. This is a tough one because its not really what Generations predicted-- they predicted a return to traditional values and gender roles. They also predicted an increase in religious belief that has not happened. So even though this future is very possible and even likely, I don't think it really represents their prediction coming true.
The second possibility is that the entire theory was ridiculous pseudoscience from the beginning and they just got lucky. History doesn't really flow in 80 year cycles and it is a coincidence that the USA fought 3 huge wars each 80 years apart that each reshaped how the federal government functions. It is not even possible to talk about "Anglo America" because immigration has changed the nation and identity politics has broken it apart to the point where there will never be a shared culture. I think this is the most likely scenario. It was fun to predict the future but it is basically astrology.
This book is mostly a rehash of Generations, which I found disappointing. There is not much new here.
The author is a Ph.D from Santa Monica and the book has a strong liberal bias. I use the word "liberal" very specifically because he is left wing but not woke. He doesn't talk about identity politics or use critical theory gibberish. Instead he slips in comments that a credulous New York Times reader would believe; for example, he says that most political violence comes from the right while omitting any mention of BLM riots.
My big problem with the book is that the author's predictions aren't coming true. The whole point of Generations was that they were going to try and predict the future based on what had happened in the past. The fact that the events of 2001-2008 really lined up with their prediction gave them huge credibility. However, since then the world has not gone according to their plan. They predicted that Millenials would be a generation similar to the so-called "Greatest Generation" that fought World War Two. Emerging from the crises of 2000-2020, we would build a safe, nurturing society based on traditional values (similar to the 1950s). This society would be a great place to grow up but it would be stifling in its conformity and would give rise to a new generation of Boomer-type people who would make everything about their self-expression and individual feelings.
This future has not come to pass. Instead, crises have consistently led to more and more fragmentation. There is no rebirth, no solution to problems. Most importantly, Generations theorized that millenials would build new institutions to replace the old ones that broke down. Instead, every institution has been destroyed by wokeness and any attempt to create new ones is immediately crushed by elite Boomers who resist any change.
I think there are two possibilities here. One is that the authors are right and we are coalescing around a new national identity and a new culture. Trump's presidency, COVID, and the 2020 election are the big crisis predicted in Generations and the woke left won the same way Roosevelt's liberalism won or Lincoln's Union won over the South. This is terrifying because that means that we are going to experience 1950s style bland social conformity but it will all be in the service of the woke cult. Every morning school children will sing the Pledge of Allegiance to the LGBTQ+++ pride flag and learn to hate themselves and each other based on race. All resources in our society will be allocated based on identity politics and the chaos and social decay will continue and be cheered on by corporate America, who will provide good paying jobs as DEI coordinators to everyone who needs one. This is a tough one because its not really what Generations predicted-- they predicted a return to traditional values and gender roles. They also predicted an increase in religious belief that has not happened. So even though this future is very possible and even likely, I don't think it really represents their prediction coming true.
The second possibility is that the entire theory was ridiculous pseudoscience from the beginning and they just got lucky. History doesn't really flow in 80 year cycles and it is a coincidence that the USA fought 3 huge wars each 80 years apart that each reshaped how the federal government functions. It is not even possible to talk about "Anglo America" because immigration has changed the nation and identity politics has broken it apart to the point where there will never be a shared culture. I think this is the most likely scenario. It was fun to predict the future but it is basically astrology.
December 12, 2023
History is a very complicated evolution of human actions which many philosophers have tried to organize with theories from “Great Man Theory” to “Dialectic Materialism." Howe provides a very different and highly interesting view by incorporating seasonality, human life spans (saeculum), and the generation that fill the spans.
History is stippled with many turning points demarking seasons. Two important turnings are crisis and awakenings. Generations of citizens grow though seasons as they mature from youth to very aged: hero, artist, prophet, nomad and back to hero. The author poses architypes for generations as well. One might imagine there are cycles moving inside cycles.
Howe’s review of his process applied at the end of the book, to what he deems the current crisis stemming from the 2009 economic meltdown, is really quite fascinating. The newest generation, called Heartlanders, will be the ones who will be responsible for finding solutions that bring America and the world back from the brink. His current crisis tableau doesn’t include the Ukraine or Israeli Wars (probably because of the timing of the book’s writing) nor the Western World’s institutional decay, nor the Chinese appetite for Taiwan, so I hope he follows with a future book to see if his Heartlanders do indeed help America and the World to a better place.
Humans do tend to find remedies for the worst of situations, so I think Howe is onto something.
This is a great read, one where you may race to the end. -Tom L.
History is stippled with many turning points demarking seasons. Two important turnings are crisis and awakenings. Generations of citizens grow though seasons as they mature from youth to very aged: hero, artist, prophet, nomad and back to hero. The author poses architypes for generations as well. One might imagine there are cycles moving inside cycles.
Howe’s review of his process applied at the end of the book, to what he deems the current crisis stemming from the 2009 economic meltdown, is really quite fascinating. The newest generation, called Heartlanders, will be the ones who will be responsible for finding solutions that bring America and the world back from the brink. His current crisis tableau doesn’t include the Ukraine or Israeli Wars (probably because of the timing of the book’s writing) nor the Western World’s institutional decay, nor the Chinese appetite for Taiwan, so I hope he follows with a future book to see if his Heartlanders do indeed help America and the World to a better place.
Humans do tend to find remedies for the worst of situations, so I think Howe is onto something.
This is a great read, one where you may race to the end. -Tom L.
July 4, 2023
All I have to say is you NEED to read this book.
I read the Fourth Turning earlier this year (twice, because it was necessary) and have been FASCINATED with the idea ever since, so when I saw the sequel was up on NetGalley, you KNOW I jumped on it. And this sequel did not disappoint.
Broken up into three parts, Howe expands on his observations on the saeculum, adding more examples, contexts and history behind the concept. Then he gets to the present moment - The Millennial Crisis - of which we’re in the middle. It’s clear we’re moving towards a climax — what that is, no one is quite clear, but Howe tries to give some assurances of what will come during and after to help readers prepare. He talks more about how people have fared during a crisis, the national attitudes that are evoked, and the resiliency and idealism that happens afterward (think post WWII).
Overall, the constant message of, “this is what history requires” and “this is just how time works,” are extremely reassuring. This crisis is not something being done to our generation, but merely a happenstance of time, and the best thing we can do is prepare, build community and look to a brighter spring.
I read the Fourth Turning earlier this year (twice, because it was necessary) and have been FASCINATED with the idea ever since, so when I saw the sequel was up on NetGalley, you KNOW I jumped on it. And this sequel did not disappoint.
Broken up into three parts, Howe expands on his observations on the saeculum, adding more examples, contexts and history behind the concept. Then he gets to the present moment - The Millennial Crisis - of which we’re in the middle. It’s clear we’re moving towards a climax — what that is, no one is quite clear, but Howe tries to give some assurances of what will come during and after to help readers prepare. He talks more about how people have fared during a crisis, the national attitudes that are evoked, and the resiliency and idealism that happens afterward (think post WWII).
Overall, the constant message of, “this is what history requires” and “this is just how time works,” are extremely reassuring. This crisis is not something being done to our generation, but merely a happenstance of time, and the best thing we can do is prepare, build community and look to a brighter spring.
June 9, 2024
For a detailed description of this one, I refer you to the Goodreads explanation on the blurb. For myself, I will just say that it was enlightening to know that cycles in American and world history follow generational patterns of aging, resulting in new cycles beginning with each successive generation with recurring patterns each roughly 80 -100 years long. That sounds more complicated than it is. Let's just say the time has come for a new crisis that will lead to a new order of civilization. The last big one was the Depression followed by WWII and before that, the American Civi War. Before that, the Revolutionary War, etc, etc.
No one knows what the next crisis will entail, civil war, another world war, this time with 10 countries having nuclear weapons, climate crisis, ecomic crisis, political showdowns, or a combination of 2 or more. The only sure thing is that it's coming. Whether you are terrified or curious about what comes next will be personal for everyone.
I checked this book out at my library after hearing an NPR interview with the author.
Stay safe out there.
No one knows what the next crisis will entail, civil war, another world war, this time with 10 countries having nuclear weapons, climate crisis, ecomic crisis, political showdowns, or a combination of 2 or more. The only sure thing is that it's coming. Whether you are terrified or curious about what comes next will be personal for everyone.
I checked this book out at my library after hearing an NPR interview with the author.
Stay safe out there.
September 17, 2023
I completed this book. I did not read his previous book but I'm very much a fan of historical overviews and societal trends. In general, I agree with the cycle of history proposed by the author. I find that it fits very nicely into several other books which I have recently read, which are along the same lines, use similar demography and history to support their views. These include:
1. Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail, by Ray Dalio,
2. The Ascent of Man, by Bronowski,
3. The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization, by Peter Zeihan,
4. 10 lessons for a Post-Pandemic World, by Fareed Zakaria
This book is well organized, well documented, well written, has a compelling storyline, makes common sense, and provides Society with a hope for our short-term future.
So far, my favorite section is Chapter 9, How are lives will Change, section on Generations of light Elders. I'm actually a boomer but this section really hit home to me. So many good lessons.
1. Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail, by Ray Dalio,
2. The Ascent of Man, by Bronowski,
3. The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization, by Peter Zeihan,
4. 10 lessons for a Post-Pandemic World, by Fareed Zakaria
This book is well organized, well documented, well written, has a compelling storyline, makes common sense, and provides Society with a hope for our short-term future.
So far, my favorite section is Chapter 9, How are lives will Change, section on Generations of light Elders. I'm actually a boomer but this section really hit home to me. So many good lessons.
August 30, 2024
You know that strange feeling when you’re reading something that’s both fascinating and frustrating at the same time? That’s exactly how I felt about Neil Howe’s “The Fourth Turning Is Here.” It’s one of those books that grips you with its bold ideas, but at the same time, it makes you want to have a long debate with the author over a cup of coffee. Let me walk you through my thoughts.
First off, let’s talk about the premise of the book. Howe’s idea of generational cycles, or “turnings,” is compelling. The concept is that every 80-100 years, society goes through a cyclical pattern of crisis, rebuilding, awakening, and unraveling, with each stage profoundly shaping the generations that live through them. It’s a fresh lens and a fascinating new way to view history, and it definitely makes you think about where we’re heading as a society.
But here’s where it gets a bit unsettling—and also where Howe’s theory hits home. He suggests that we’re currently in the Fourth Turning, the crisis stage, and that things will have to get MUCH WORSE before they get better. As daunting as that sounds, it’s hard to argue with his logic.
Terrible times, according to Howe, are often what it takes to shake a society to its core and force people to come together. It’s a harsh truth, but history does have a tendency to prove that we don’t usually pull back from the brink until we’ve hit rock bottom. We too often ride that sinking ship all the way to the bottom of the ocean, and only then do we realize we need to work together to rebuild.
However, as much as I found this theory thought-provoking, there’s a point where the book starts to falter. Howe’s analysis of historical events can feel a bit cherry-picked. It’s like he’s searching through the annals of history, finding events that fit his theory, and then presenting them as proof.
While it’s impressive to see so many examples lined up, it can also be exhausting—and not entirely convincing. You start to notice that he’s ignoring other significant factors, like technological advancements and economic shifts, that have played just as big, if not bigger, roles in shaping history.
Take, for example, the rise of women’s rights in the 1960s and 70s. Howe attributes this to his generational cycle, which, sure, might have played a part. But he glosses over the fact that the availability of birth control was a game-changer. That was a huge factor that empowered women to take control of their lives in ways they hadn’t before.
Similarly, when he talks about the Civil War, he points to the generational cycle as a major cause but seems to sidestep the influence of industrialization in the North and Britain’s economic interests in Southern cotton. These were huge forces at play, and by ignoring them, Howe’s theory starts to feel a little too neat and tidy.
This tendency to oversimplify is a recurring issue in the book. Howe’s generational cycle theory is fascinating, but his insistence on making it the primary explanatory factor for almost everything starts to wear thin. It’s as if he’s trying too hard to make the theory airtight, and in doing so, he falls into confirmation bias.
Despite these flaws, I wouldn’t dismiss “The Fourth Turning Is Here.” The idea of recurring generational cycles is still a valuable concept, and it offers a unique way to think about history. I think it’s an important tool to help all of us figure out where the world might be headed. After reading this book, I really feel like Howe has found a fascinating and important pattern. I think he’s really on to something here.
If Howe had spent more time considering how these cycles interact with other major factors—like technology, economics, and global politics—the book could have been more balanced and impactful. But as it stands, his overreach somewhat undermines the credibility of his theory.
So, where does that leave me with this book? Honestly, I have mixed feelings. On the one hand, I really appreciate the fresh perspective and the deep thinking it inspires. On the other hand, I’m frustrated by Howe’s tendency to force his theory to fit every historical event, often at the expense of a more nuanced understanding. It’s a book that makes you think, but it also leaves you wishing for a bit more balance and less dogmatism.
In the end, “The Fourth Turning Is Here” is definitely worth a read. Agree or disagree, it’s really gonna get you thinking. If you’re into big ideas and don’t mind sifting through some confirmation bias, you’ll find plenty to chew on here. Just be prepared to take some of it with a grain of salt.
First off, let’s talk about the premise of the book. Howe’s idea of generational cycles, or “turnings,” is compelling. The concept is that every 80-100 years, society goes through a cyclical pattern of crisis, rebuilding, awakening, and unraveling, with each stage profoundly shaping the generations that live through them. It’s a fresh lens and a fascinating new way to view history, and it definitely makes you think about where we’re heading as a society.
But here’s where it gets a bit unsettling—and also where Howe’s theory hits home. He suggests that we’re currently in the Fourth Turning, the crisis stage, and that things will have to get MUCH WORSE before they get better. As daunting as that sounds, it’s hard to argue with his logic.
Terrible times, according to Howe, are often what it takes to shake a society to its core and force people to come together. It’s a harsh truth, but history does have a tendency to prove that we don’t usually pull back from the brink until we’ve hit rock bottom. We too often ride that sinking ship all the way to the bottom of the ocean, and only then do we realize we need to work together to rebuild.
However, as much as I found this theory thought-provoking, there’s a point where the book starts to falter. Howe’s analysis of historical events can feel a bit cherry-picked. It’s like he’s searching through the annals of history, finding events that fit his theory, and then presenting them as proof.
While it’s impressive to see so many examples lined up, it can also be exhausting—and not entirely convincing. You start to notice that he’s ignoring other significant factors, like technological advancements and economic shifts, that have played just as big, if not bigger, roles in shaping history.
Take, for example, the rise of women’s rights in the 1960s and 70s. Howe attributes this to his generational cycle, which, sure, might have played a part. But he glosses over the fact that the availability of birth control was a game-changer. That was a huge factor that empowered women to take control of their lives in ways they hadn’t before.
Similarly, when he talks about the Civil War, he points to the generational cycle as a major cause but seems to sidestep the influence of industrialization in the North and Britain’s economic interests in Southern cotton. These were huge forces at play, and by ignoring them, Howe’s theory starts to feel a little too neat and tidy.
This tendency to oversimplify is a recurring issue in the book. Howe’s generational cycle theory is fascinating, but his insistence on making it the primary explanatory factor for almost everything starts to wear thin. It’s as if he’s trying too hard to make the theory airtight, and in doing so, he falls into confirmation bias.
Despite these flaws, I wouldn’t dismiss “The Fourth Turning Is Here.” The idea of recurring generational cycles is still a valuable concept, and it offers a unique way to think about history. I think it’s an important tool to help all of us figure out where the world might be headed. After reading this book, I really feel like Howe has found a fascinating and important pattern. I think he’s really on to something here.
If Howe had spent more time considering how these cycles interact with other major factors—like technology, economics, and global politics—the book could have been more balanced and impactful. But as it stands, his overreach somewhat undermines the credibility of his theory.
So, where does that leave me with this book? Honestly, I have mixed feelings. On the one hand, I really appreciate the fresh perspective and the deep thinking it inspires. On the other hand, I’m frustrated by Howe’s tendency to force his theory to fit every historical event, often at the expense of a more nuanced understanding. It’s a book that makes you think, but it also leaves you wishing for a bit more balance and less dogmatism.
In the end, “The Fourth Turning Is Here” is definitely worth a read. Agree or disagree, it’s really gonna get you thinking. If you’re into big ideas and don’t mind sifting through some confirmation bias, you’ll find plenty to chew on here. Just be prepared to take some of it with a grain of salt.
June 10, 2023
This book is a follow up to the author's 1997 book "The Fourth Turning". Howe is a historian and demographer that has co-developed a theory of generational change and cyclical history. He proposes that history tends to move in cycles that last 80 to 100 years that consist of four phases which are each the length of a generation of the population. We are currently in the fourth phase of the cycle, according to Howe. This phase corresponds to the previous fourth phases of the Revolutionary War, the Civil War and World War II. While the US is not officially at war, I think many of us would agree that the current society seems as if it is in a warlike setting.
Based on his theory, Howe states that the US will enter its "spring" or first phase in the early to mid 2030's. He says this time will be one where the "culture will be tamer, social conscience weaker and pressure to conform heavier". Personally, this is not something that I would look forward to.
His says this crisis period could be one of another world war or a type of civil war in the US. Neither of these is something I hope will happen. A third option is some sort of regeneracy of the country without a war.
It is evident to me that this author is much more liberal politically than I am. His theory of cycles of history has some merit, but as a Christian I believe that history has a beginning and an endpoint. I recommend this book for students of history and culture as some good "food for thought".
I received a complementary advanced copy via NetGalley from the publisher.
Based on his theory, Howe states that the US will enter its "spring" or first phase in the early to mid 2030's. He says this time will be one where the "culture will be tamer, social conscience weaker and pressure to conform heavier". Personally, this is not something that I would look forward to.
His says this crisis period could be one of another world war or a type of civil war in the US. Neither of these is something I hope will happen. A third option is some sort of regeneracy of the country without a war.
It is evident to me that this author is much more liberal politically than I am. His theory of cycles of history has some merit, but as a Christian I believe that history has a beginning and an endpoint. I recommend this book for students of history and culture as some good "food for thought".
I received a complementary advanced copy via NetGalley from the publisher.
July 19, 2023
In the first two pages the Author cites COVID Deaths as an indicator?
Of the Author can not see that the COVID Deaths Statistics have been manipulated, why would we trust his analysis of large cycles of not only economics but the pit right will of the people. Both of which have to be the most complex to analyze.
It is unfortunate that the Author cites COVID Deaths, it is fortunate that he did it on the first few pages so we know he can not be trusted.
Of the Author can not see that the COVID Deaths Statistics have been manipulated, why would we trust his analysis of large cycles of not only economics but the pit right will of the people. Both of which have to be the most complex to analyze.
It is unfortunate that the Author cites COVID Deaths, it is fortunate that he did it on the first few pages so we know he can not be trusted.
August 6, 2023
A missed opportunity (with a caveat).
While this book is interesting reading, it represents a missed opportunity by the author. Much (if not most) of the book is a rehashing of the Strauss-Howe generational theory that first appears in The Fourth Turning from 1997. For those that have read that work, there is little new here.
Where the opportunity is missed, it's in the missed opportunity to connect more closely the current Fourth Turning with current events. For example, the author notes the loss of trust in institutions without ever asking "why?" and thus fails to connect it with actual things happening in the world. A reader could be forgiven for concluding that the author's belief is that the loss of institutional trust is simply a natural consequence of where we are in the saeculum, rather than an inevitable consequence of those same institutions destroying that trust through failures, lies, corruption, and a lack of accountability for any of those things.
There are numerous other examples like this, and the failure to more deeply connect the present Fourth Turning with recent history ultimately leaves this book as primarily a repeat of Strauss and Howe's previous work on this topic. This is where I will bring in the caveat though - if you are not familiar with the Strauss-Howe generational theory, this is a good introduction. It may not go quite as deep as 1997's The Fourth Turning, but it's deep enough. If I hadn't read the previous work, I might have given this four or five stars. But I had, and thus the lack of much of anything new here drops the rating to three.
While this book is interesting reading, it represents a missed opportunity by the author. Much (if not most) of the book is a rehashing of the Strauss-Howe generational theory that first appears in The Fourth Turning from 1997. For those that have read that work, there is little new here.
Where the opportunity is missed, it's in the missed opportunity to connect more closely the current Fourth Turning with current events. For example, the author notes the loss of trust in institutions without ever asking "why?" and thus fails to connect it with actual things happening in the world. A reader could be forgiven for concluding that the author's belief is that the loss of institutional trust is simply a natural consequence of where we are in the saeculum, rather than an inevitable consequence of those same institutions destroying that trust through failures, lies, corruption, and a lack of accountability for any of those things.
There are numerous other examples like this, and the failure to more deeply connect the present Fourth Turning with recent history ultimately leaves this book as primarily a repeat of Strauss and Howe's previous work on this topic. This is where I will bring in the caveat though - if you are not familiar with the Strauss-Howe generational theory, this is a good introduction. It may not go quite as deep as 1997's The Fourth Turning, but it's deep enough. If I hadn't read the previous work, I might have given this four or five stars. But I had, and thus the lack of much of anything new here drops the rating to three.
July 25, 2023
Rating is for the writing and content.
This is largely a redux of the previous book (The Fourth Turning), reissued for the newer generations who might be his new audience/ readers and updated with current events to prove why NOW is indeed the crisis/inflection point is this “saeculum.” He also goes into more details about what exactly the final crisis moment might look like, and what the ensuing “turnings” following it might look like, all with a generation-by-generation breakdown of how it may all generally feel and what role each cohort will play in each turning.
It is a lot of historical, sociological, and cultural Information delivered in an expert voice and using the Royal “we” since so much of it started as joint work with his original co-author. It’s dense, but quite readable. However, sometimes it seemed overly long and explanatory.
There is one content area that I noticed right off and that continued to distract me, and it was a fatal flaw in this book for me, as its introduction seemed to necessitate some additional explanation (at least) or (even better) additional theorizing. The author calls the turnings or recent historical past “Anglo-American”- as in “Anglo-American history” and “Anglo-American Crisis.” In one sense this acknowledges that his viewpoint (and theory) and therefore that of the book is predominantly white (and male… the majority of referenced historical figures, generational examples and quotes he pulls in are from white men of European origin). However, to not signal to the reader why he is doing this nor address the complexities that arise from it — if there is a Latino-American or African-American history and perspective that is different or follows a different timeline and what are the implications of that on his Anglo-American-centric theory and turning— is a failing of this author and this book.
He also made some alterations to the original theory that made it suspect, like the addition of two new inflection points (regeneracy) before entering the “Ekpyrosis” - a a new word pulled from the Greek. These additions along with language the author relied on in snort snippets at the end of some chapters gives the author a potential out should this fourth turning not unfold the way Howe foretells here.
It is a fine book. A good read to look at recent history in a different light, and it’s entertaining to posit the thesis.
The following has nothing to do with the rating:
One thing I’d caution readers to remember as they embark on this, especially those new to the Fourth Turning theories (which have, by the way, been co-opted by white supremacist hate groups as proof that there is a coming race war and to encourage other supremacists to take up arms and be prepared to fight for their hate-centered ideals): this IS just a theory and has not yet been proven. We have to wait for that. It’s entirely possible to find patterns in entirely separate things that are not, in fact, linked, and as humans we are hard-wired to do so (this tendency is called apophenia); and Howe even tells us that he looked for patterns in history, right there in the afterword:
“Thinking about history archetypically, as the product of overlapping generational scripts, is an acquired taste, like the habit of closely observing how people dress or talk. It starts with a glance here and a comparison there, and then it draws you in, until you can’t help but notice significant patterns in everything you see changing around you, from politics to pop culture.”
So this entire thing could be an illusory correlation.
But like I said, it’s fun to ponder and see historical events (and accompanying generational descriptions) in a different framework.
This is largely a redux of the previous book (The Fourth Turning), reissued for the newer generations who might be his new audience/ readers and updated with current events to prove why NOW is indeed the crisis/inflection point is this “saeculum.” He also goes into more details about what exactly the final crisis moment might look like, and what the ensuing “turnings” following it might look like, all with a generation-by-generation breakdown of how it may all generally feel and what role each cohort will play in each turning.
It is a lot of historical, sociological, and cultural Information delivered in an expert voice and using the Royal “we” since so much of it started as joint work with his original co-author. It’s dense, but quite readable. However, sometimes it seemed overly long and explanatory.
There is one content area that I noticed right off and that continued to distract me, and it was a fatal flaw in this book for me, as its introduction seemed to necessitate some additional explanation (at least) or (even better) additional theorizing. The author calls the turnings or recent historical past “Anglo-American”- as in “Anglo-American history” and “Anglo-American Crisis.” In one sense this acknowledges that his viewpoint (and theory) and therefore that of the book is predominantly white (and male… the majority of referenced historical figures, generational examples and quotes he pulls in are from white men of European origin). However, to not signal to the reader why he is doing this nor address the complexities that arise from it — if there is a Latino-American or African-American history and perspective that is different or follows a different timeline and what are the implications of that on his Anglo-American-centric theory and turning— is a failing of this author and this book.
He also made some alterations to the original theory that made it suspect, like the addition of two new inflection points (regeneracy) before entering the “Ekpyrosis” - a a new word pulled from the Greek. These additions along with language the author relied on in snort snippets at the end of some chapters gives the author a potential out should this fourth turning not unfold the way Howe foretells here.
It is a fine book. A good read to look at recent history in a different light, and it’s entertaining to posit the thesis.
The following has nothing to do with the rating:
One thing I’d caution readers to remember as they embark on this, especially those new to the Fourth Turning theories (which have, by the way, been co-opted by white supremacist hate groups as proof that there is a coming race war and to encourage other supremacists to take up arms and be prepared to fight for their hate-centered ideals): this IS just a theory and has not yet been proven. We have to wait for that. It’s entirely possible to find patterns in entirely separate things that are not, in fact, linked, and as humans we are hard-wired to do so (this tendency is called apophenia); and Howe even tells us that he looked for patterns in history, right there in the afterword:
“Thinking about history archetypically, as the product of overlapping generational scripts, is an acquired taste, like the habit of closely observing how people dress or talk. It starts with a glance here and a comparison there, and then it draws you in, until you can’t help but notice significant patterns in everything you see changing around you, from politics to pop culture.”
So this entire thing could be an illusory correlation.
But like I said, it’s fun to ponder and see historical events (and accompanying generational descriptions) in a different framework.
January 15, 2024
The generations discussions are spot on. However, no discussion of the Trump debacle.
July 28, 2023
I was very excited to receive an ARC of this book in advance of publication. Reading it, however, was a chore. It was a re-hash of much of the prior book and had a huge political bias to it. Would have been nice if there had been some type of comment in the book description indicating that this book would probably offend many readers. I couldn't finish reading it and originally decided to be kind and not leave a review, since it would be negative. My mind was changed this evening, when I looked the book up on Amazon, out of curiosity, and realized I was not alone, at all, in my reaction to this book.
I received an ARC of this book from NetGalley and the publisher in exchange for my unbiased review.
I received an ARC of this book from NetGalley and the publisher in exchange for my unbiased review.
September 2, 2024
3.5 stars
The Fourth Turning is Here revisits the theory of cyclical history first introduced in 1997 by Neil Howe and the late William Strauss. Their original work proposed that history moves in cycles of about 80 to 100 years, each cycle divided into four stages or “turnings”: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis. According to Howe, we are currently amid the Fourth Turning, a period of significant crisis that will transform society and potentially usher in a new era.
The book offers an in-depth analysis of each turning, illustrating how they influence the behaviors and attitudes of generations. Howe meticulously examines historical patterns to show how previous crises have led to profound societal changes. He provides a sobering yet ultimately empowering narrative about our current state, emphasizing the urgency for collective action and resilience.
While The Fourth Turning is Here is illuminating and offers a comprehensive look at generational dynamics and historical cycles, it can feel quite dense and textbook-like. The wealth of information is fascinating but may be overwhelming for some readers. Those primarily interested in the US context might skip around to find the most relevant sections.
Despite its almost textbook dryness, the book provides valuable insights and interesting tidbits about how history shapes our present and future. For those willing to dive deep into the theory, it offers a thought-provoking perspective on how we can navigate the current crisis and potentially shape a more stable society.
The Fourth Turning is Here revisits the theory of cyclical history first introduced in 1997 by Neil Howe and the late William Strauss. Their original work proposed that history moves in cycles of about 80 to 100 years, each cycle divided into four stages or “turnings”: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis. According to Howe, we are currently amid the Fourth Turning, a period of significant crisis that will transform society and potentially usher in a new era.
The book offers an in-depth analysis of each turning, illustrating how they influence the behaviors and attitudes of generations. Howe meticulously examines historical patterns to show how previous crises have led to profound societal changes. He provides a sobering yet ultimately empowering narrative about our current state, emphasizing the urgency for collective action and resilience.
While The Fourth Turning is Here is illuminating and offers a comprehensive look at generational dynamics and historical cycles, it can feel quite dense and textbook-like. The wealth of information is fascinating but may be overwhelming for some readers. Those primarily interested in the US context might skip around to find the most relevant sections.
Despite its almost textbook dryness, the book provides valuable insights and interesting tidbits about how history shapes our present and future. For those willing to dive deep into the theory, it offers a thought-provoking perspective on how we can navigate the current crisis and potentially shape a more stable society.
August 11, 2023
Instant classic. Perfect follow-up to The Fourth Turning. Everyone should listen to this. Excellent Audio by Neil Howe. Tip: Listen at 1.3X speed, and it moves right along.
July 25, 2023
The book has 10 chapters, an epilogue, index, notes, bibliography, and the sundry other usual for a total of 578 pages. At times it is a bit redundant, but this is necessary to keep from toggling back and forth between chapters, highlights in the Kindle edition and notes. Additionally, the author presents several good tables and charts that explain and compare data.
The Author of this book, co-authored the Fourth Turning in 1997. The idea that is presented in this book is not new and the author provides the academic history to show this. If you read Samuel Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, you will have an idea of what this book speaks to. The difference is this author presents 500 years of social, economic, and military history to present his case. An the focus is on America and the impact of these turns in history.
My concerns about this book is that the author did not use traditional endnotes or footnotes when presenting data and when quoting other authors or scholars – regrettably, I spent a lot of time checking sources. Additionally, I am not convinced that the epilogue was presented accurately - personally feel it is a little biased. There has been an equal amount of violence perpetrated by both the Left and the Right. How does one account for the emotional abuse and censorship?
The story is compelling, and a significant amount of data and research went into conveying the thesis of the book: That a generational turn is about 20 years, a saeculum is a life cycle of four turns, and a saeculum resembles a natural cycle of spring, summer, fall, and winter, or more precisely, rebirth, growth, entropy/decay and creative destruction. For you Biblical Scholars, you will see this in Psalm 90, verse 10; Genesis 6:3; the Book of Lamentations and Ecclesiastes. For the secular and academic, think complex bio systems.
This book presents a theory of modern history and a forecast of America’s future that have been in development for many decades. This book proposes that America is midway through an era of historical crisis, which—almost by definition—will lead to outcomes that are largely though not entirely beyond our control. Yes, we have Free Will, Personality, Chance, and Randomness in decision making, but the outcomes from that will not stop the march of the life cycle.
This book suggests that generations are causal agents in history and that generational formation drives the pace and direction of social change in the modern world. Once people understand this, they are often tempted to judge one or another generation as “good” or “bad.”
According to the author:
“This temptation must be resisted. In the words of the great German scholar Leopold von Ranke, who weighed so many Old-World generations on the scales of history, “before God all the generations of humanity appear equally justified.” In “any generation,” he observed, ��real moral greatness is the same as in any other.” In truth, every generation is what it has to be.
Marcel Proust wrote that “what we call our future is the shadow that our past projects in front of us.” It’s easy to understand that our future must somehow be determined by our past. What’s harder to understand is exactly how. The secret is to get out of the “shadow”—to escape the slavish habits and delusive hopes of “what we call our future”—and to recognize deeper patterns at work. At first glance, these deeper patterns may strike us as grim and unforgiving. Yet once we take time to reflect on them, we may come to a different conclusion: that they are corrective and restorative.
However, the struggle plays out, America is getting ready for a gigantic makeover of its national governing institutions.
Newspaper editorials focus mostly on the wrong question. They ask which side will win.
The most important question is whether Americans are prepared for the trauma that will accompany the collapse of one regime and the emergence of another.
At the core of modern history lies this remarkable pattern: Over the past five or six centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era—a new turning—every two decades or so. Turnings come in cycles of four. Each cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly eighty to one hundred years, a unit of time the ancients called the saeculum. Together, the four turnings of the saeculum comprise history’s periodic rhythm, in which the seasons of spring, summer, fall, and winter correspond to eras of rebirth, growth, entropy, and (finally) creative destruction.
America entered its most recent Fourth Turning in 2008, placing us fifteen years into the Crisis era. Each turning is a generation long (about twenty to twenty-five years), and it is likely that this turning will be somewhat longer than most. By our reckoning, therefore, we have about another decade to go.
What typically occurs early in a Fourth Turning—the initial catalyzing event, the deepening loss of civic trust, the galvanizing of partisanship, the rise of creedal passions, and the scramble to reconstruct national policies and priorities—all this has already happened.
The later and more eventful stages of a Fourth Turning still lie ahead. Every Fourth Turning unleashes social forces that push the nation, before the era is over, into a great national challenge: a single urgent test or threat that will draw all other problems into it and require the extraordinary mobilization of most Americans. We don’t yet know what this challenge is. Historically, it has nearly always been connected to the outcome of a major war either between America and foreign powers, or between different groups within America, or both.
The Author of this book, co-authored the Fourth Turning in 1997. The idea that is presented in this book is not new and the author provides the academic history to show this. If you read Samuel Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, you will have an idea of what this book speaks to. The difference is this author presents 500 years of social, economic, and military history to present his case. An the focus is on America and the impact of these turns in history.
My concerns about this book is that the author did not use traditional endnotes or footnotes when presenting data and when quoting other authors or scholars – regrettably, I spent a lot of time checking sources. Additionally, I am not convinced that the epilogue was presented accurately - personally feel it is a little biased. There has been an equal amount of violence perpetrated by both the Left and the Right. How does one account for the emotional abuse and censorship?
The story is compelling, and a significant amount of data and research went into conveying the thesis of the book: That a generational turn is about 20 years, a saeculum is a life cycle of four turns, and a saeculum resembles a natural cycle of spring, summer, fall, and winter, or more precisely, rebirth, growth, entropy/decay and creative destruction. For you Biblical Scholars, you will see this in Psalm 90, verse 10; Genesis 6:3; the Book of Lamentations and Ecclesiastes. For the secular and academic, think complex bio systems.
This book presents a theory of modern history and a forecast of America’s future that have been in development for many decades. This book proposes that America is midway through an era of historical crisis, which—almost by definition—will lead to outcomes that are largely though not entirely beyond our control. Yes, we have Free Will, Personality, Chance, and Randomness in decision making, but the outcomes from that will not stop the march of the life cycle.
This book suggests that generations are causal agents in history and that generational formation drives the pace and direction of social change in the modern world. Once people understand this, they are often tempted to judge one or another generation as “good” or “bad.”
According to the author:
“This temptation must be resisted. In the words of the great German scholar Leopold von Ranke, who weighed so many Old-World generations on the scales of history, “before God all the generations of humanity appear equally justified.” In “any generation,” he observed, ��real moral greatness is the same as in any other.” In truth, every generation is what it has to be.
Marcel Proust wrote that “what we call our future is the shadow that our past projects in front of us.” It’s easy to understand that our future must somehow be determined by our past. What’s harder to understand is exactly how. The secret is to get out of the “shadow”—to escape the slavish habits and delusive hopes of “what we call our future”—and to recognize deeper patterns at work. At first glance, these deeper patterns may strike us as grim and unforgiving. Yet once we take time to reflect on them, we may come to a different conclusion: that they are corrective and restorative.
However, the struggle plays out, America is getting ready for a gigantic makeover of its national governing institutions.
Newspaper editorials focus mostly on the wrong question. They ask which side will win.
The most important question is whether Americans are prepared for the trauma that will accompany the collapse of one regime and the emergence of another.
At the core of modern history lies this remarkable pattern: Over the past five or six centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era—a new turning—every two decades or so. Turnings come in cycles of four. Each cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly eighty to one hundred years, a unit of time the ancients called the saeculum. Together, the four turnings of the saeculum comprise history’s periodic rhythm, in which the seasons of spring, summer, fall, and winter correspond to eras of rebirth, growth, entropy, and (finally) creative destruction.
America entered its most recent Fourth Turning in 2008, placing us fifteen years into the Crisis era. Each turning is a generation long (about twenty to twenty-five years), and it is likely that this turning will be somewhat longer than most. By our reckoning, therefore, we have about another decade to go.
What typically occurs early in a Fourth Turning—the initial catalyzing event, the deepening loss of civic trust, the galvanizing of partisanship, the rise of creedal passions, and the scramble to reconstruct national policies and priorities—all this has already happened.
The later and more eventful stages of a Fourth Turning still lie ahead. Every Fourth Turning unleashes social forces that push the nation, before the era is over, into a great national challenge: a single urgent test or threat that will draw all other problems into it and require the extraordinary mobilization of most Americans. We don’t yet know what this challenge is. Historically, it has nearly always been connected to the outcome of a major war either between America and foreign powers, or between different groups within America, or both.
October 1, 2023
Having read The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy—What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny last year, an amazingly insightful and prophetic book that was published in 1996, I wondered if I should have tempered my expectations for a follow up that was 27 years later and with one of the co-authors now deceased, and it was just as amazing! These 2 books together explain history and have already proven to be useful in predicting the future in a way that I've not read anywhere else. It also explains generational characteristics in a way that just makes sense of everything.
On the other hand, this book will not lessen your fears about what America and the world may have to go through in the next 10 years, unless a centuries-long cycle is to be broken, but it is at least a little optimistic about what should await on the other side of that.
On the other hand, this book will not lessen your fears about what America and the world may have to go through in the next 10 years, unless a centuries-long cycle is to be broken, but it is at least a little optimistic about what should await on the other side of that.
Read
October 2, 2023Recognition of a pattern in history. He tries to develop it based on pagan cyclical time and discounts Christian linear time. Laments the loss of cyclical time and the connection people used to have to the changes in history and the world. This is all a fairly ironic rejection of progress considering the point of the book.
I thought his idea that there were four “turnings” that linked up with the four seasons was interesting and compelling.
Overall I have come to accept the idea of God working through similar patterns in history and I’ve been fascinated by secular authors recognizing these patterns. They tend to become rather proud of their “discoveries” and their specific patterns, so they try to rigidly predict the future. This usually tends to make a mockery of them. This book put forward his view on the topic. The premise was interesting but I found the development of it rather boring and tiresome so I stopped reading it, hence no rating.
I thought his idea that there were four “turnings” that linked up with the four seasons was interesting and compelling.
Overall I have come to accept the idea of God working through similar patterns in history and I’ve been fascinated by secular authors recognizing these patterns. They tend to become rather proud of their “discoveries” and their specific patterns, so they try to rigidly predict the future. This usually tends to make a mockery of them. This book put forward his view on the topic. The premise was interesting but I found the development of it rather boring and tiresome so I stopped reading it, hence no rating.
August 22, 2024
If nothing else it was very engaging and relentlessly researched. The author himself acknowledges the dangers of fortune-telling with the future and spends whole chapters on historical anomalies. That said, I did find it very interesting and it lined up with many of the other authors I've read who do less predicting and more historical/political analysis. He references some of these, such as James Burnham and Walter Scheidel, and hints at many thinkers and historians noticing the pattern of the Saeculum and drawing conclusions about it, for me that would be Curtis Yarvin who measures the span of time between "monarchs", or separate Republics in the American tradition, namely from James Madison to Abraham Lincoln to FDR.
If I had more time on my hands I would take his characterizations of each generation, the heroes, artists, nomads, etc and try to run my own analysis of those leaders from a perspective of lions vs foxes (Pareto) and try to better understand the character shifts, or residues, of the ruling elite who make the decisions that reverberate through cultures, societies, and the world.
Overall I think the book has a lot of great historical knowledge, even if his bias creeps in at times and gives characterizations to minor events that I don't think history will agree with. I'll definitely be referring back to this book as the years pass to see which of his scenarios come to fruition and what the preconditions were that led there.
If I had more time on my hands I would take his characterizations of each generation, the heroes, artists, nomads, etc and try to run my own analysis of those leaders from a perspective of lions vs foxes (Pareto) and try to better understand the character shifts, or residues, of the ruling elite who make the decisions that reverberate through cultures, societies, and the world.
Overall I think the book has a lot of great historical knowledge, even if his bias creeps in at times and gives characterizations to minor events that I don't think history will agree with. I'll definitely be referring back to this book as the years pass to see which of his scenarios come to fruition and what the preconditions were that led there.
August 23, 2023
History makes each generation and each generation makes history. This theory of social history rings true and if so, the climax of our crisis era may soon be upon us. According to Howe, we should think of it like a forest fire, devastating but necessary. As we go through the worst wildfire season on record, I couldn’t help but notice that the author doesn’t directly address climate change in his discussion of our current period of crisis. Social systems are incredibly complex and impossible to predict, but it’s hard to imagine a future where climate change doesn’t play a major role in the equation.
Read
November 21, 2023Did not finish. I attempted to listen to this as an audio book. It is a little to in depth for my taste.. History has always repeated itself.
October 22, 2024
The beginning outlining of similar theories to Howes’ Saeculum and its archetypes was equally really interesting to see and eventually boring due to its extent. If I were to recommend this book I would exclude this beginning and some of the ends predictions, which started safe and ended far stretched. The chapters 5, 6, 7, and 8 (Complexity, Anomalies, and Global History - How Society will Change) were the real meat of the book and what made it great in my opinion.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
September 1, 2023
Everyone should read this. Felt soooo spot on.
November 17, 2023
If you've read the original The Fourth Turning, much of this book will be review. However, this book explains the Forth Turning framework more cogently and tightly than the original, so if you haven't read the original book, I recommend just reading this and skipping the original. You'll walk away with the same central ideas plus the author's additional new (and slightly-adjusted) conclusions.
The most profo... [see the rest on my book review site.]
The most profo... [see the rest on my book review site.]
November 18, 2023
Enjoyed. A lot of 1997 Fourth Turning in it.
He moved Americas next rendezvous with destiny from 2026 to 2033.
Enjoyed. Love the cycles. Very well put together. Probably need to reread 3 times to fully grasp.
He moved Americas next rendezvous with destiny from 2026 to 2033.
Enjoyed. Love the cycles. Very well put together. Probably need to reread 3 times to fully grasp.
September 2, 2023
I really wanted to give this book five stars. I absolutely love the original, but unfortunately I think the balancing voice of William Strauss is sadly lost here and some of Howe's personal views seep in a little more than they would have had Strauss still been alive.
Some examples of this include his several invocations of carbon-based climate change and right-wing violence being the major crisis we face today. Totally ignoring rare earth mineral strip mining for "green" electric cars and the 2020 Summer of "Love" that oozed with left-wing violence in every "blue zone" city. This was really the main issue detracting from the final star. Howe does have a few moment where he gives a small licking to the more extreme side of the left wing, but it feels inauthentic and only tossed in there out of obligation as opposed to true analysis. An example would be stating that the Boomer's New Age movement is now commercialed and stale (in other words hinting without explicitly stating that the rainbow flag and its zealots are annoying and overdone at this point). He writes a lot about the ancients and how wise they were for realizing and following cyclical time, but it feels like Howe himself is a center-left modern individual that can't quite himself slip out of the linear progressive mindset that he preaches against.
The book was also largely a retread of the original, but he explicitly states this at the beginning of the book, letting the readers know that they don't have to read the original to understand this book. It really is more of a Second Edition than a Sequel.
Unlike the original however, the clear, bulleted "Nostradamus" predictions are absent from this edition. I was a little disappointed and it felt like Howe hedged his bets a little in this edition. Those predictions of the Fourth Turning catalyst in the original that turned out to be largely true twenty years later were part of the books draw. He kept the possible endings to this Fourth Turning as vague and broad as possible. I would have loved to see those bullet points as to the exact players and events that would cause the Epkyrosis event spelled out explicitly this time as well.
His prose is still very nice, and it has a prophetic flow to it, almost as if mimicking an ancient text in modern language parlance.
While the author states that it isn't required, I still suggest reading the original first for the full nuanced understanding.
Even with its problems compared to the original, this is still a very thought-provokig read and would still recommend.
Some examples of this include his several invocations of carbon-based climate change and right-wing violence being the major crisis we face today. Totally ignoring rare earth mineral strip mining for "green" electric cars and the 2020 Summer of "Love" that oozed with left-wing violence in every "blue zone" city. This was really the main issue detracting from the final star. Howe does have a few moment where he gives a small licking to the more extreme side of the left wing, but it feels inauthentic and only tossed in there out of obligation as opposed to true analysis. An example would be stating that the Boomer's New Age movement is now commercialed and stale (in other words hinting without explicitly stating that the rainbow flag and its zealots are annoying and overdone at this point). He writes a lot about the ancients and how wise they were for realizing and following cyclical time, but it feels like Howe himself is a center-left modern individual that can't quite himself slip out of the linear progressive mindset that he preaches against.
The book was also largely a retread of the original, but he explicitly states this at the beginning of the book, letting the readers know that they don't have to read the original to understand this book. It really is more of a Second Edition than a Sequel.
Unlike the original however, the clear, bulleted "Nostradamus" predictions are absent from this edition. I was a little disappointed and it felt like Howe hedged his bets a little in this edition. Those predictions of the Fourth Turning catalyst in the original that turned out to be largely true twenty years later were part of the books draw. He kept the possible endings to this Fourth Turning as vague and broad as possible. I would have loved to see those bullet points as to the exact players and events that would cause the Epkyrosis event spelled out explicitly this time as well.
His prose is still very nice, and it has a prophetic flow to it, almost as if mimicking an ancient text in modern language parlance.
While the author states that it isn't required, I still suggest reading the original first for the full nuanced understanding.
Even with its problems compared to the original, this is still a very thought-provokig read and would still recommend.
September 15, 2023
DNF. This is a massive book (592 pages in hardcover, 20 hours in the audiobook edition), and I so listened to the first 12 hours of the audiobook, skimmed other parts, but became exhausted every time I began playing the audiobook so we had to part ways after two weeks of frustration.
The main thesis of this book (which is a sequel to Howe and his late collaborator William Strauss' 1996 book, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny) is that the next ten years of American/world history will likely be significant. Sure, every ten years of history is significant. Howe spends the first half of the book going into extended history lessons dating back to the 1500s or so in an attempt to shoehorn his thesis (that there are four turnings of every historical cycle, each lasting 20-25 years) into the last 500 years of world history. This part felt pedantic, heavy-handed, and monotonous. He leans heavily on pop culture generation speak (not dissimilar to academic Jean Twenge's 2023 book Generations: The Real Differences Between Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, Boomers, and Silents―and What They Mean for America's Future) but attempts to extrapolate these generations as having existed historically in archetypes called prophets (currently, boomers), nomads (currently, Gen X), heroes (currently, the greatest generation and Millennials), and artists (currently, the silent generation and Gen Z).
The second half of the book contains speculation (all in very general, tarot-card-reading terms) of what the next decade, which Howe speculates is the fourth turning of the current epoch, will bring. Basically, doom and gloom, with much of the generation-specific content being a rehash of the first part of the book.
Unless you're a hardcore history buff and/or futurist, I'd skip this book.
The main thesis of this book (which is a sequel to Howe and his late collaborator William Strauss' 1996 book, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny) is that the next ten years of American/world history will likely be significant. Sure, every ten years of history is significant. Howe spends the first half of the book going into extended history lessons dating back to the 1500s or so in an attempt to shoehorn his thesis (that there are four turnings of every historical cycle, each lasting 20-25 years) into the last 500 years of world history. This part felt pedantic, heavy-handed, and monotonous. He leans heavily on pop culture generation speak (not dissimilar to academic Jean Twenge's 2023 book Generations: The Real Differences Between Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, Boomers, and Silents―and What They Mean for America's Future) but attempts to extrapolate these generations as having existed historically in archetypes called prophets (currently, boomers), nomads (currently, Gen X), heroes (currently, the greatest generation and Millennials), and artists (currently, the silent generation and Gen Z).
The second half of the book contains speculation (all in very general, tarot-card-reading terms) of what the next decade, which Howe speculates is the fourth turning of the current epoch, will bring. Basically, doom and gloom, with much of the generation-specific content being a rehash of the first part of the book.
Unless you're a hardcore history buff and/or futurist, I'd skip this book.
October 30, 2023
Twenty-five years ago, Neil Howe and the late William Strauss dazzled the world with a provocative new theory of American history. Looking back at the last 500 years, they’d uncovered a distinct pattern: modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting roughly eighty to one hundred years, the length of a long human life, with each cycle composed of four eras—or “turnings”—that always arrive in the same order and each last about twenty years. The last of these eras—the fourth turning—was always the most perilous, a period of civic upheaval and national mobilization as traumatic and transformative as the New Deal and World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution. Now, our own fourth turning has arrived. And so Neil Howe has returned with an extraordinary new prediction. What we see all around us—the polarization, the growing threat of civil conflict and global war—will culminate by the early 2030s in a climax that poses great danger and yet also holds great promise, perhaps even bringing on America’s next golden age. Every generation alive today will play a vital role in determining how this crisis is resolved, for good or ill. Illuminating, sobering, yet ultimately empowering, The Fourth Turning Is Here takes us back into history and deep into the collective personality of each living generation to make sense of our current crisis, explore how all of us will be differently affected by the political, social, and economic challenges we’ll face in the decade to come, and reveal how our country, our communities, and our families can best prepare to meet these challenges head-on.
October 31, 2023
I don't know about the soothsaying that comprises most of the latter half of the book, but the diagnosis of where we stand in this moment of history was fairly convincing. Winter is coming no longer. Winter is here.
But there's hope. Though good times don't last, neither do the bad. If we succeed in resolving the crisis we now find ourselves in, Howe envisions a rosy picture of America's future. Until the next crisis, anyway
I enjoyed the cyclical perspective of history and generations, ideas which were mostly new to me. It's easy to be optimistic knowing that what we're living through has analogues in the past, and we've (so far) always come out stronger for them.
But there's hope. Though good times don't last, neither do the bad. If we succeed in resolving the crisis we now find ourselves in, Howe envisions a rosy picture of America's future. Until the next crisis, anyway
I enjoyed the cyclical perspective of history and generations, ideas which were mostly new to me. It's easy to be optimistic knowing that what we're living through has analogues in the past, and we've (so far) always come out stronger for them.
October 17, 2023
I like books like this. They are, at the same time, fascinating and otherworldly boring. When a book has to start at 1 BC to make point about the 2020s, you know you are in for a long ride.
It is very detailed, and yes... it is written by a man who definitely thinks about the Roman Empire often.
I will say, though, you have to take this, and other books like this, with a grain of salt. It is very much coming from an Anglo/Eurocentric/Caucasian/White, male point of view of the world. The history of the world begins in Europe and ends in the United States.
Other non-Anglo/Caucasian/White people and nations are essentially non-player characters (NPCs) whose histories are mere footnotes, if acknowledged at all, in the tales of nation building, decision making, and where society will go.
So, if you are okay with that and want to get a "scholars" version of palm reading, this is an interesting read, with some modern day relatable points. It will definitely get you excited to see if any of the "predictions" comes true... if you don't get bored out of your mind with the heavy handedness of the limited historical details.
It is very detailed, and yes... it is written by a man who definitely thinks about the Roman Empire often.
I will say, though, you have to take this, and other books like this, with a grain of salt. It is very much coming from an Anglo/Eurocentric/Caucasian/White, male point of view of the world. The history of the world begins in Europe and ends in the United States.
Other non-Anglo/Caucasian/White people and nations are essentially non-player characters (NPCs) whose histories are mere footnotes, if acknowledged at all, in the tales of nation building, decision making, and where society will go.
So, if you are okay with that and want to get a "scholars" version of palm reading, this is an interesting read, with some modern day relatable points. It will definitely get you excited to see if any of the "predictions" comes true... if you don't get bored out of your mind with the heavy handedness of the limited historical details.
January 2, 2024
Never has a book written with so many words described so little 🥱 I really struggled to get through it. it’s a shame because I read ‘the fourth turning’ and I found it extremely interesting and very compelling. There wasn’t much new in this book despite it being 20 HOURS LONG!! It felt like a rehash and not a good one.
I still hold a lot of store in the hypothesis that history is cyclical… it certainly appears so, and a lot of the ideas laid out I the first book have come to pass. I just feel this book was unnecessary or could have been quarter of the length.
I still hold a lot of store in the hypothesis that history is cyclical… it certainly appears so, and a lot of the ideas laid out I the first book have come to pass. I just feel this book was unnecessary or could have been quarter of the length.
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