Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Humanities/2014 March 19

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March 19

Warren Buffett's a billion dollar March Madness give out

Seriously, what is his real reason behind this? Is he willing to give out that much of money to prove "you can't beat the odd"? The odd is actually much higher than 1/2^63 considering that some teams are more likely to win than the others. Chances are one person will win the prize and bring home a billion dollars. I just don't get why would he do this? Last question, does he do this every year?75.168.134.220 (talk) 01:55, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

For those as equally as confused as I was, OP seems to be referring to Warren Buffett offering a $1billion prize for picking a perfect March Madness bracket. But to answer the questions (or attempt to), the article that I linked basically explains what the real chances are of someone actually winning. Spoiler: They're infinitesimally small. So, no, likely nobody will win. And to my knowledge, this is the first time he's ever done this. Dismas|^(talk) 02:05, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

By higher odds, do you mean they are more likely to get it right than if each team had a 50% chance of winning ? If so, I agree, provided that most people know which team is more likely to win, and pick accordingly. StuRat (talk) 02:24, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Yes, I hope real business insiders have a better understanding of risk than those Business Insider reporters. I don't follow college basketball, or any sport really, but it's clear that one team will be heavily favored over the other in some games, especially the games between the #1 and #16 seeds. In fact, according to NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Championship, no #16 team has won one of those games since the first 64-team tournament in 1985 (a total of 116 games).

Just to get a ridiculously simple estimate, imagine that the odds of the ith-ranked team beating the jth-ranked team in any game is ½ + ½ erf((j − i) / 8). This gives the #1 team a 57% chance of beating the #2 team and a 99.6% chance of beating the #16 team. Then your chance of getting every game in a region right if you assume the higher-ranked team always wins is about 1.7%. Assuming the last three games are tossups, the chance of getting all 63 right is then about 10⁻⁸. So it isn't immediately obvious that the money is safe. This article quotes a statistician who estimated the odds at 1 in 80 billion, which is still worryingly high, especially when you consider how many people will fill out brackets. -- BenRG (talk) 17:39, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

The numbers are 15 million according to the sources I read and a respondent below. And it's worth remembering that even if the 1 in 80 billion is an accurate estimation of an expert picker, this doesn't mean the odds of someone winning will be 1 in ~5000 or whatever. It's likely that only a small percentage of pickers will can be expected to have those odds. If we assume a chance of someone winning is 1 in 100k (random example) then $2 million for insurance is likely fair. As with any insurance, the risk to Berkshire Hathaway and Buffet is not that they get unlucky, but that they got their odds wrong. It would be interesting if any betting agency is willing to offer odds on a perfect bracket and what sort of odds they will give (both of which will probably depend on the choices in the bracket). Nil Einne (talk) 15:19, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

According to [1], one company does offer 25 million but it sounds like it's a fixed payout (I guess for a minimal bet, perhaps $10?) rather than odds although I dunno if you can enter multiple times (if you can, then you only have to enter 40 times witht he same bracket to theoretically win 1 billion). Of course, AFAIK most betting companies rely on getting their odds right to ensure they always profit on average (like casinos and lotteries although the later has simple odds for everything and the former for most things), rather than insurance that are used for these sort of one off competitions. Nil Einne (talk) 15:57, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

Just to clarify, it's not Warren Buffett who's "doing this", but Quicken. Berkshire Hathaway, or some company they own, is insuring it. It would be interesting to know what Quicken paid for the insurance. The aforementioned statistician guessed $2 million, which seems plausible given that they're giving away another $3 million in the same promotion. -- BenRG (talk) 18:03, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

If we look at the odds, based on the chances of getting each game right, and assume them to be independent events, we get:

0.563 = 1/9.2 quintillion
0.663 = 1/95 trillion
0.763 = 1/5.7 billion
0.863 = 1/1.3 million
0.963 = 1/763

So, if people's guesses are up above 70% per pick, that might be trouble. StuRat (talk) 21:20, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

After reading this article, I feel like this 1 billion dollars given away is a scam to get media attention and free advertisement for name brand recognition. Even though, it's free to sign up, they capped it at 15 million people maximum that can sign up. So obvious, they try to minimize the chance of anyone will win at all. Buffett is a very clever guy...75.168.138.200 (talk) 21:49, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Is some website displaying (1) how many entries there were and (2) how many entries still have a chance to win? For example, I would expect a significant drop even after the first two games last night. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 22:18, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

• The laws of probability may not work too well here. Anything you can bet on will be fixed, and a billion dollars is a lot of incentive. If someone has a bracket filled out correctly with just a few games to go, I'd bet there would be some irregularities. Wnt (talk) 22:33, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

1. Of course it's a stunt to get media attention. What was your original theory before you switched to that one? 2. It's a stunt by Quicken Loans, which seems to have gone pretty badly for them since the press coverage has overwhelmingly focused on Buffett. They still get the personal information of 15 million people, though, and maybe that makes it worth it to them. 3. It isn't free for Quicken Loans; they're spending several million dollars on it even if no one wins the jackpot. 4. Some of that money goes to the insurance company (part-?)owned by Buffett. He expects to make a profit when no one wins. He's not randomly offering a bunch of money from his personal fortune for no apparent reason as you seem to think. 5. Quicken is also giving prizes for the most accurate brackets, so some entrants are going to win some money. -- BenRG (talk) 00:47, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

While you're mostly right, there is an apparent reason for him to make it rain. InedibleHulk (talk) 17:03, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

How is a basketball game (or tournament) a "philanthropic cause"? Thanks. Joseph A. Spadaro (talk) 17:09, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

Do you know a basketball fan who couldn't better their life with a billion dollars? InedibleHulk (talk) 17:13, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

LOL. Yes. Don't they say that most people who win the lottery lose all of their money within five years or so? I though that I had read or heard that somewhere. Joseph A. Spadaro (talk) 18:43, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

I guess I may be confusing learning to fish with finding a fish in your mailbox each month. InedibleHulk (talk) 19:24, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

What's all too apparent is that in conjunction with this the media and advertisers have really been pushing the idea of gambling on these games like never before, which means that their reputation is bound soon to be demolished, perhaps not by the Buffett bettors, but by someone. Wnt (talk) 22:47, 21 March 2014 (UTC)

Whatever publicity they may have garnered will soon fade, as the last possible winning submission fell today, just a couple of days into the tournament. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 05:55, 22 March 2014 (UTC)

German anti-Nazi propaganda? 1933 election platform statements?

I'm looking for copies of anti-Nazi propaganda produced in Germany prior to 1939 (even better if prior to 1933). Things like scans of pamphlets put out by the SPD or KPD, newspaper articles (mainstream or underground) denouncing Hitler, that sort of thing. This includes election platforms of political parties that explicitly positioned themselves as being anti-Nazi. I haven't been able to find anything like this using Google, and I'm not really sure where else to start looking. Could anybody help me? --2404:2000:2000:5:0:0:0:C2 (talk) 03:35, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

a small flyer from March 5, 1933, http://www.dhm.de/lemo/objekte/pict/608_1/index.jpg --Soman (talk) 04:19, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

1933 cover of Die Rote Fahne, http://infoladen-zittau.de/wp-content/gallery/widerstand-in-schlesien/die_rote_fahne_web.jpg --Soman (talk) 04:27, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Caricature by Erich Ohser (e.o.plauen) 1931. Rgds _{•  • hugarheimur} 04:41, 23 March 2014 (UTC)

Arbeiter-Illustrierte-Zeitung might be useful. --jpgordon^{::==( o )} 15:07, 23 March 2014 (UTC)

Another missing airplane

I was reading an article about the missing airplane Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. The article mentions another incident in which a plane went missing and was never found. The exact quote from the article is: "It has been nearly 50 years since a plane carrying more than two dozen people vanished without a trace, according to a list of unexplained aviation disappearances tracked by the Flight Safety Foundation. An Argentine military plane carrying 69 people disappeared in 1965 and has never been found". Is there a Wikipedia article on this 1965 incident? I searched a bit and was not able to find anything. I also did a Google search and came up empty. The only information I have is that quote above from the article. Thanks. Joseph A. Spadaro (talk) 04:25, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

It might be one of these. -- Jack of Oz ^{[pleasantries]} 05:02, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

A quick Google search for "1965 Argentine plane" found this and this which both mention the flight. It also found our List of accidents and incidents involving the Douglas DC-4 article. To answer your question though, no, it seems we don't have an article on that specific flight. Dismas|^(talk) 05:45, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

A better article is List of aerial disappearances. From that list I get these candidates: "1 Nov 1965 Fuerza Aérea Argentina C-54 (TC-48) 68 people" and "15 Mar 1962 N6921C 107 people". The first was a military McDonnell Douglas DC-4 and just links to the previously mentioned article about the DC-4. The second was a military Lockheed Constellation and has its own article. Astronaut (talk) 18:19, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Thanks, all. The information was helpful. Thank you. Joseph A. Spadaro (talk) 21:50, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Irish jumping dance

On Monday, I was celebrating Saint Patrick's Day at an Irish pub here in Finland. There was a group of women who performed a strange dance. They got in a circle and jumped up and down all the time. Is this some kind of traditional Irish dance? JIP | Talk 04:58, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Are you thinking of something like this? If so, see Irish dance. Dismas|^(talk) 05:40, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

In the US I see groups of young girls who do some kind of Irish dancing like this, the rules of which involve jumping up and down rapidly while holding the arms rigidly at the side and moving the legs only. The story is that Irish people were not allowed by their English overlords to dance in olden times, so this way if the English walked by and saw them dancing, they would not realize the Irish were dancing, since no arms were visible waving about. This implies one side or both were simpletons, since arms up or down you would see a group bouncing up and down rhythmically, unless one only had a snapshot of it. My question is, the girls in such troupes all have distinctive hair, quite long and in permed looking tendrils. Do they all grow their hair long and get it permed a certain way, or do they all just wear a wig which matches their natural hair color, or some of each?Edison (talk) 14:48, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Our article (linked above) says "Today most women and girls wear a wig or hairpiece for a competition, but some still curl their own hair". But beware: BBC News - Doctors say Irish dancer's baldness linked to hair pinning. I strongly suspect that the story about the hands being held by the sides to fool British soldiers is a myth, although it holds quite wide currency. The story is repeated in a scholarly paper, Posture in Irish Dancing, although here the villain is the parish priest rather than a Redcoat. The author concludes that "this bizarre account is nothing more than a sample of Irish humor" (p. 3 of the file, marked as p. 82). Alansplodge (talk) 15:47, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

And what would be the reason to forbid dancing ? The English weren't religious extremists, like the Taliban (they sent their religious extremists to America). I can see them banning anything they think might lead to Irish independence, but dancing rather seems like a distraction from any goal like that. StuRat (talk) 21:00, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

In Cromwell's times a great many of the English were religious extremists, and had it in for dancing. This may not have had any influence at all on the evolution of Irish dancing, however. Itsmejudith (talk) 21:51, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Indeed, and those people were In charge of the government at that time. While it's fashionable to think of the West (and especially the Anglophone West) as being above all of that, for 11 years England was ruled by a religious-extremist military dictatorship. It got better. --Jayron32 02:10, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

Yes, most of them left for America ;-) Alansplodge (talk) 08:37, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

Yup. --Jayron32 13:52, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

White people in Benin

Are there many white people living in Benin, and what is the white population of Benin? I wonder if there were many white settlers prior to colonialism in Benin. --Dífficułtetsky (talk) 11:47, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

The article Demographics of Benin mentions that the population is 99% African and that the number of Europeans in the country is estimated at 10,000 (there is also a small non-European, non-African population). Prior to European colonization, there was practically no white population. A few forts and trading posts were established in the 18th and 19th century, but there was never any significant European settlement beyond administrators and missionaries. See the article fr:Histore du Bénin [2] --Xuxl (talk) 13:57, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

See also this source [3]: "Like most territories in sub-Saharan Africa, Dahomey only attracted a small number of settlers. For one thing, France did not produce many emigrants, and for another, the Benin Coast did not offer particularly attractive conditions for most potential immigrants either those living in France or abroad." (my translation from Hélène Almeida-Topor: "Histoire économique du Dahomey (Bénin) 1890-1920", pp. 261-262. --Xuxl (talk) 14:04, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Francisco Félix de Sousa is one I know of from being a Chatwinophile. -- Jack of Oz ^{[pleasantries]} 19:40, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

• This question looks like a boring series of previous questions with the structure: are there white/asian people in place x. OsmanRF34 (talk) 20:39, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Perhaps, but properly speaking our article on these various "races" (even though they are pretty much socially defined) really ought to have a worldwide distribution map with a numeric file annotation. Wnt (talk) 22:30, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Garuda and Buddhism

When was Garuda absorbed into Buddhism? I can't find a concrete answer. Thanks. --Ghostexorcist (talk) 12:31, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Garuda was present in Hinduism. As Buddhism was derived from Hinduism, it is plausible to suggest that Garuda gets carried over. 140.254.227.78 (talk) 14:27, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

None of the teachings or quotes directly attributed to the Buddha mention Garuda. Probably mythology derived from Hinduism was absorbed into Buddhism during its early centuries in the Indian subcontinent. Marco polo (talk) 17:36, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Samuelson gap

What is a Samuelson gap? It appears only in Club good, an economics article. 2001:18E8:2:1020:89BE:2A98:12E3:589D (talk) 20:27, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Club_good#Club_theory says "This gap contained goods that were excludable but shared by more people than typically share a private good but less people than typically share a public good." I agree that this could use it's own article, though. StuRat (talk) 20:49, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

So that sentence refers to all Samuelson gaps? I read that sentence but wasn't sure how to interpret it. I thought perhaps that this Samuelson gap had those characteristics but that others might not. 2001:18E8:2:1020:F5CC:2B56:9CD2:7719 (talk) 15:17, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

"Samuelson gap" is not a standard term in its own right. James M. Buchanan used it ad hoc in "An Economic Theory of Clubs". There it refers to the gap in economic theory at the time, of covering "the whole spectrum of ownership-consumption possibilities".

Only in the previous 20 years had economic theory even started to include public goods and communal or collective consumption — Paul A. Samuelson's "fundamental papers", for example, which make "a sharp conceptual distinction" between "purely private" and "purely public" goods and services, leaving out all the shades of grey in between. Buchanan writes (in 1965) that "no general theory has been developed" covering the entire field of possibilities between purely private and purely public.

I don't think "Samuelson gap" should be (red-)linked in that article. ---Sluzzelin talk 15:37, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

2022 FIFA World Cup more deadly than September 11???

See 2022 FIFA World Cup, which accurately reflects the present news reports. The question I have is: is this verified and reliable, or is there still a chance that somehow the deaths are 'routine mortality' from sickness in a large population from countries with low life expectancy? Also, who are these construction companies? Do any of them have to do with Halliburton or other U.S. companies that have moved to Qatar? Wnt (talk) 23:28, 19 March 2014 (UTC)

Accusing people of bad business practices is defamation per se. Please avoid needless remarks assuming criminality or negligence without proof. μηδείς (talk) 00:28, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

In case it's not obvious, I was asking questions, not giving answers. I don't know what to make of the news stories even so far as they go. Wnt (talk) 02:26, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

So that you are aware, couching things in terms of questions, (Has John Doe ever been cured of clap or not?) and using "alleged", are not defenses against defamation. It is easy to avoid, especially since we shouldn't be soapboxing in the first place. μηδείς (talk) 17:15, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

Did you read the 2022_FIFA_World_Cup#Migrant_workers section ? That might answer some of your Q's. Look up the references for that section to try to answer the rest.

According to [4], 44 Nepalese migrant workers died during a 2-month period last summer. I suspect that, being from Nepal, they aren't used to such temperatures, so don't know to wear loose fitting white clothing, always carry water, etc. Of course, their employers should really train them and take care of safety issues like this. StuRat (talk) 01:21, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

I read that - referred to it in the question - it's the interpretation part that gets confusing. A person can die from weather conditions either by accident or by abuse, and the articles have some tone of the latter. But the articles mentioned 900 dead, not just 44 Nepalis. I don't know if Nepalis are overrepresented or not - because of their altitude and cold adaptation I could believe it, but I don't know. (There was a video going around the Net toward the beginning of the Iraq War... chap from al-Qaida trying to kill the first of several Nepali troops by cutting his throat with a knife. Apparently they can survive longer without blood to the brain than a lot of folks. Ever see somebody from al Qaida freak out and start shooting people in horror?) Wnt (talk) 02:26, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

There's lies, damn lies, and statistics. You can reliably claim that Honda is more deadly to Americans than Al-Qaeda was, given that more people have died in accidents in Honda automobiles over history than Al-Qaeda ever killed in September 11. That's a fact, Jack, but it doesn't mean shit. It has two advantages saying it, however. One is that it is a true (if meaningless and misleading) statement and secondly is that it sounds interesting and thus drives click thrus on websites or eyeballs on TV sets. Put those together and you get why the News runs with bullshit like this. It may be true (I'm not saying it is or it isn't however. I'll concede that it is just to make this point), but even if it is true, it's still bullshit, and true bullshit is some of the worst kind. --Jayron32 02:04, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

Thank you for offering me that information, Jayron. -- Jack of Oz ^{[pleasantries]} 02:52, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

Sorry, I forget how few Americanisms have made it to the Antipodes. [5] shows its use back to at least the 1970s. It means "Damn skippy". --Jayron32 03:00, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

That's an Americanism? I've never heard of it, and I'm Canadian (aka almost American). --64.134.44.147 (talk) 03:06, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

There's also "Let me tell you something, Jack. If shit was worth something, poor people would be born with no asshole." And "Wakko packs away the snacks, while Bill Clinton plays the sax." "Let me tell you something, Jack..." was also one of American hero Jesse Ventura's default lines. Canadian here, too, but liked the TV. InedibleHulk (talk) 15:59, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

"Damn Skippy", marsupial or not, does not exist in Wikipedia for good reasons [6] [7]. Canadians rank among the world's highest in education and, it's believed, can even spell English and its posessive pronouns correctly without a superfluous apostrophe. 84.209.89.214 (talk) 16:45, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

They sure don't teach that in D'Lo, Miss'sippi. InedibleHulk (talk) 17:24, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

Are you now saying you weren't including me in your audience, Jayron? I've gone from being chuffed to feeling slighted now. Come one, come all, and frolic and glee in the Emotional Rollercoaster that is the Reference Desk.  :) -- Jack of Oz ^{[pleasantries]} 21:55, 20 March 2014 (UTC)

Without defending the poor Qatari safety record, I agree with Jayron32 here. Our article and the source seem to imply 4000 people will die from the world cup but if read the carefully, it's not even clear their own statistics support the claim. From what I can tell, they are looking at the mortality from all constructions sites from the time of awarding the world cup to Qatar (or even before) to various time points, to obtain generalised mortality statistics.They then go on to estimate total construction in Qatar from the time the world cup hosting rights were won until it's hosted.

This is clearly nonsense. While it's likely construction has accelerated significantly in Qatar due to them winning hosting rights, it's not like there would be no construction were it not for the world cup or that all current construction relates to the world cup. In other words, it's just silly to imply all construction deaths in Qatar are because the world cup.

(Of course, while we can be sure there would likely still be significant construction, reliable estimates for how much the World Cup changed things are difficult. Then you have to wonder how it changed mortality. For example, if construction was accelerated on a building and more people are involved, you may expected increased mortality both due a greater chance of dying per unit time and more people. Yet the shorter time frame means these people won't be working so long on that building. And assigned 'fault' is complicated anyway.)

You could argue it s irresponsible to not demand much stricter safety standards from all construction as part of awarding the world cup (particularly given the difficult deciding what you should associate with the world cup), but that's a different point.

Nil Einne (talk) 12:34, 20 March 2014 (UTC)